No Warnings, Watches, or Advisories

GTXWXBot[TX]:

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River near Long Lake (Oakwood) [TX] till Nov 23, 4:00 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 13:33:52

878 
WGUS84 KFWD 201933
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
133 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
   Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
   Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC001-161-289-210733-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181123T1000Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181021T1637Z.181024T1345Z.181122T2200Z.NO/
133 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 1230 PM Tuesday the stage was 37.30 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by late Thursday afternoon.
* At 37 feet, minor flooding of the Coffield Prison agricultural land,
  and ranch and farm lands along the river, is expected.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 11:41 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 11:42:01

286 
FXUS64 KFWD 201741
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/
Light winds below 10 kt should persist through the TAF period. 
Wind direction slowly veering to the east/southeast late tonight 
through mid-day Wednesday, as the surface ridge shifts to the 
east. Increasing mid/upper clouds on Wednesday, but no impacts are
expected. A few showers will be possible during the
afternoon/evening, with the highest likelihood at KACT. However,
coverage should be too low to include at any sites through their
respective TAF periods.

Picca

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
Hello North and Central Texas -- this is Joey Picca checking in
with my first update as a forecaster at the office. I'm looking 
forward to serving you as a lead forecaster here at FWD. As for 
today, forecast appears to be on track, with pleasant conditions 
continuing this afternoon.

Picca

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
/Today and Tonight/
Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail as a surface high 
translates across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Skies will generally
remain clear, although some high clouds will arrive from the west
later tonight. With a full day of sunshine, highs will reach the 
mid 50s to near 60 degrees across the region. The light winds and 
mostly clear skies tonight will allow for another night of 
excellent radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the low 
30s in the traditionally cooler spots with mid to upper 30s 
elsewhere. 

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

By Wednesday morning we'll be watching a fast moving disturbance
tracking eastward beneath ridging over the western U.S. This
shortwave will quickly spread into west Texas during the morning
hours. Surface high pressure will be centered over Arkansas with
low level flow remaining generally out of the east across our
region. This will limit the amount of moisture that can return 
ahead of the shortwave trough and will likely be the main
inhibitor to a more widespread rainfall event. That being said,
the shortwave itself will track right over Central Texas with
strong forcing for ascent spreading over the region from midday
into early afternoon. Scattered showers will likely develop across
parts of Central Texas and move northeast into the evening. We'll
keep PoPs between 20-40% mainly south of I-20.

This system will move by and leave us dry for Thanksgiving with 
the surface high moving to the east and southerly flow returning. 
Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s with some
passing clouds. A stronger disturbance will swing through the
Plains on Friday, and similar to the previous, will be constrained
by limited moisture. Models have come into better agreement with
the track of this disturbance, generally across Oklahoma. Given
that we will have some moisture return, we'll likely see some
showers develop mainly east of I-35 on Friday morning before
quickly ending from west to east during the afternoon. Friday and
Saturday should be the warmest days of the week with highs
climbing into the 70s.

By Sunday, another very strong shortwave will dig into the Plains,
potentially bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma. A very pronounced
dry slot will likely spread across North and Central Texas leaving
us precipitation free. Nonetheless, a strong cold front will swing
through the region during this time with temperatures falling back
into the 50s along with gusty northwest winds. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the track of the upper
trough, so we'll continue to monitor this. Otherwise, it looks dry
and cool to start next week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  37  59  40  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Waco                60  33  59  38  63 /   0   0  30  20   5 
Paris               55  35  57  37  60 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Denton              57  33  57  36  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
McKinney            57  35  57  36  60 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Dallas              59  40  60  41  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Terrell             58  36  58  37  62 /   0   0  20   5   0 
Corsicana           58  39  59  41  60 /   0   0  30  20   0 
Temple              60  35  59  40  62 /   0   0  40  20   5 
Mineral Wells       59  32  58  38  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

/82

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River near Long Lake (Oakwood) [TX] till Nov 23, 6:00 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 10:39:14

720 
WGUS84 KFWD 201639
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1039 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
  Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC001-161-289-210439-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181124T0000Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181021T1637Z.181024T1345Z.181123T1200Z.NO/
1039 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 1030 AM Tuesday the stage was 37.49 feet.
* Flood stage is  35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* At 37 feet, Minor flooding of the Coffield Prison agricultural land,
  and ranch and farm lands along the river, is expected.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 10:36 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 10:37:09

559 
FXUS64 KFWD 201636
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1036 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018


.UPDATE...
Hello North and Central Texas -- this is Joey Picca checking in
with my first update as a forecaster at the office. I'm looking 
forward to serving you as a lead forecaster here at FWD. As for 
today, forecast appears to be on track, with pleasant conditions 
continuing this afternoon.

Picca

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 512 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
VFR conditions will prevail today with northerly winds at less 
than 10 knots. Skies will be clear today, but increasing high 
clouds will occur late tonight. Winds tonight will diminish to 
less than 5 knots with a gradual turn toward the east or southeast
by Wednesday morning.

TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
/Today and Tonight/
Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail as a surface high 
translates across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Skies will generally
remain clear, although some high clouds will arrive from the west
later tonight. With a full day of sunshine, highs will reach the 
mid 50s to near 60 degrees across the region. The light winds and 
mostly clear skies tonight will allow for another night of 
excellent radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the low 
30s in the traditionally cooler spots with mid to upper 30s 
elsewhere. 

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

By Wednesday morning we'll be watching a fast moving disturbance
tracking eastward beneath ridging over the western U.S. This
shortwave will quickly spread into west Texas during the morning
hours. Surface high pressure will be centered over Arkansas with
low level flow remaining generally out of the east across our
region. This will limit the amount of moisture that can return 
ahead of the shortwave trough and will likely be the main
inhibitor to a more widespread rainfall event. That being said,
the shortwave itself will track right over Central Texas with
strong forcing for ascent spreading over the region from midday
into early afternoon. Scattered showers will likely develop across
parts of Central Texas and move northeast into the evening. We'll
keep PoPs between 20-40% mainly south of I-20.

This system will move by and leave us dry for Thanksgiving with 
the surface high moving to the east and southerly flow returning. 
Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s with some
passing clouds. A stronger disturbance will swing through the
Plains on Friday, and similar to the previous, will be constrained
by limited moisture. Models have come into better agreement with
the track of this disturbance, generally across Oklahoma. Given
that we will have some moisture return, we'll likely see some
showers develop mainly east of I-35 on Friday morning before
quickly ending from west to east during the afternoon. Friday and
Saturday should be the warmest days of the week with highs
climbing into the 70s.

By Sunday, another very strong shortwave will dig into the Plains,
potentially bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma. A very pronounced
dry slot will likely spread across North and Central Texas leaving
us precipitation free. Nonetheless, a strong cold front will swing
through the region during this time with temperatures falling back
into the 50s along with gusty northwest winds. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the track of the upper
trough, so we'll continue to monitor this. Otherwise, it looks dry
and cool to start next week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  37  59  40  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Waco                60  33  59  38  63 /   0   0  30  20   5 
Paris               55  35  57  37  60 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Denton              57  33  57  36  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
McKinney            57  35  57  36  60 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Dallas              59  40  60  41  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Terrell             58  36  58  37  62 /   0   0  20   5   0 
Corsicana           58  39  59  41  60 /   0   0  30  20   0 
Temple              60  35  59  40  62 /   0   0  40  20   5 
Mineral Wells       59  32  58  38  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

/82

SHV continues Flood Warning for Neches River near Diboll [TX] until further notice
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 10:21:04

330 
WGUS84 KSHV 201621
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-211619-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181110T0730Z.181114T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The flood warning extended until further notice...The flood 
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 13.8 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-211619-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-181126T0600Z/
/ATOT2.1.ER.181113T0545Z.181118T2115Z.181124T1800Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The flood warning extended until late Sunday night...The flood 
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until late Sunday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 17.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to recede to near 17.1 feet
  by Wednesday morning.  Also the Neches River near Alto crested 
  at 17.7 feet during the beginning of this holiday week during
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Expect moderate to severe flooding of the 
  heavily wooded floodplain. Boat ramps and picnic areas will be 
  completely inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-211619-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181112T1245Z.181114T0230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 13.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet by this
  Tuesday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

SHV extends time of Flood Warning for Neches River near Alto [TX] till Nov 26, 12:00 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 10:21:04

330 
WGUS84 KSHV 201621
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-211619-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181110T0730Z.181114T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The flood warning extended until further notice...The flood 
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 13.8 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-211619-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-181126T0600Z/
/ATOT2.1.ER.181113T0545Z.181118T2115Z.181124T1800Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The flood warning extended until late Sunday night...The flood 
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until late Sunday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 17.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to recede to near 17.1 feet
  by Wednesday morning.  Also the Neches River near Alto crested 
  at 17.7 feet during the beginning of this holiday week during
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Expect moderate to severe flooding of the 
  heavily wooded floodplain. Boat ramps and picnic areas will be 
  completely inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-211619-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181112T1245Z.181114T0230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 13.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet by this
  Tuesday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

SHV extends time of Flood Warning for Neches River near Neches [TX] until further notice
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 10:21:04

330 
WGUS84 KSHV 201621
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-211619-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181110T0730Z.181114T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The flood warning extended until further notice...The flood 
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 13.8 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-211619-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-181126T0600Z/
/ATOT2.1.ER.181113T0545Z.181118T2115Z.181124T1800Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...The flood warning extended until late Sunday night...The flood 
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until late Sunday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 17.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to recede to near 17.1 feet
  by Wednesday morning.  Also the Neches River near Alto crested 
  at 17.7 feet during the beginning of this holiday week during
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Expect moderate to severe flooding of the 
  heavily wooded floodplain. Boat ramps and picnic areas will be 
  completely inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-211619-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181112T1245Z.181114T0230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 13.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet by this
  Tuesday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 5:12 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 05:13:10

767 
FXUS64 KFWD 201112
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
512 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail today with northerly winds at less 
than 10 knots. Skies will be clear today, but increasing high 
clouds will occur late tonight. Winds tonight will diminish to 
less than 5 knots with a gradual turn toward the east or southeast
by Wednesday morning.

TR.92

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
/Today and Tonight/
Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail as a surface high 
translates across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Skies will generally
remain clear, although some high clouds will arrive from the west
later tonight. With a full day of sunshine, highs will reach the 
mid 50s to near 60 degrees across the region. The light winds and 
mostly clear skies tonight will allow for another night of 
excellent radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the low 
30s in the traditionally cooler spots with mid to upper 30s 
elsewhere. 

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

By Wednesday morning we'll be watching a fast moving disturbance
tracking eastward beneath ridging over the western U.S. This
shortwave will quickly spread into west Texas during the morning
hours. Surface high pressure will be centered over Arkansas with
low level flow remaining generally out of the east across our
region. This will limit the amount of moisture that can return 
ahead of the shortwave trough and will likely be the main
inhibitor to a more widespread rainfall event. That being said,
the shortwave itself will track right over Central Texas with
strong forcing for ascent spreading over the region from midday
into early afternoon. Scattered showers will likely develop across
parts of Central Texas and move northeast into the evening. We'll
keep PoPs between 20-40% mainly south of I-20.

This system will move by and leave us dry for Thanksgiving with 
the surface high moving to the east and southerly flow returning. 
Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s with some
passing clouds. A stronger disturbance will swing through the
Plains on Friday, and similar to the previous, will be constrained
by limited moisture. Models have come into better agreement with
the track of this disturbance, generally across Oklahoma. Given
that we will have some moisture return, we'll likely see some
showers develop mainly east of I-35 on Friday morning before
quickly ending from west to east during the afternoon. Friday and
Saturday should be the warmest days of the week with highs
climbing into the 70s.

By Sunday, another very strong shortwave will dig into the Plains,
potentially bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma. A very pronounced
dry slot will likely spread across North and Central Texas leaving
us precipitation free. Nonetheless, a strong cold front will swing
through the region during this time with temperatures falling back
into the 50s along with gusty northwest winds. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the track of the upper
trough, so we'll continue to monitor this. Otherwise, it looks dry
and cool to start next week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  37  59  40  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Waco                60  33  59  38  63 /   0   0  30  20   5 
Paris               55  35  57  37  60 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Denton              57  33  57  36  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
McKinney            56  35  57  36  60 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Dallas              58  40  60  41  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Terrell             58  36  58  37  62 /   0   0  20   5   0 
Corsicana           58  39  59  41  60 /   0   0  30  20   0 
Temple              60  35  59  40  62 /   0   0  40  20   5 
Mineral Wells       59  32  58  38  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 3:30 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 03:30:32

745 
FXUS64 KFWD 200930
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail as a surface high 
translates across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Skies will generally
remain clear, although some high clouds will arrive from the west
later tonight. With a full day of sunshine, highs will reach the 
mid 50s to near 60 degrees across the region. The light winds and 
mostly clear skies tonight will allow for another night of 
excellent radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the low 
30s in the traditionally cooler spots with mid to upper 30s 
elsewhere. 

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

By Wednesday morning we'll be watching a fast moving disturbance
tracking eastward beneath ridging over the western U.S. This
shortwave will quickly spread into west Texas during the morning
hours. Surface high pressure will be centered over Arkansas with
low level flow remaining generally out of the east across our
region. This will limit the amount of moisture that can return 
ahead of the shortwave trough and will likely be the main
inhibitor to a more widespread rainfall event. That being said,
the shortwave itself will track right over Central Texas with
strong forcing for ascent spreading over the region from midday
into early afternoon. Scattered showers will likely develop across
parts of Central Texas and move northeast into the evening. We'll
keep PoPs between 20-40% mainly south of I-20.

This system will move by and leave us dry for Thanksgiving with 
the surface high moving to the east and southerly flow returning. 
Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s with some
passing clouds. A stronger disturbance will swing through the
Plains on Friday, and similar to the previous, will be constrained
by limited moisture. Models have come into better agreement with
the track of this disturbance, generally across Oklahoma. Given
that we will have some moisture return, we'll likely see some
showers develop mainly east of I-35 on Friday morning before
quickly ending from west to east during the afternoon. Friday and
Saturday should be the warmest days of the week with highs
climbing into the 70s.

By Sunday, another very strong shortwave will dig into the Plains,
potentially bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma. A very pronounced
dry slot will likely spread across North and Central Texas leaving
us precipitation free. Nonetheless, a strong cold front will swing
through the region during this time with temperatures falling back
into the 50s along with gusty northwest winds. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the track of the upper
trough, so we'll continue to monitor this. Otherwise, it looks dry
and cool to start next week.

Dunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1127 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
No aviation weather concerns across North and Central Texas
through Tuesday night with only few to scattered high clouds and a
north to northeast wind at speeds less than 10 knots.  

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  37  59  40  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Waco                60  33  59  38  63 /   0   0  30  20   5 
Paris               55  35  57  37  60 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Denton              57  33  57  36  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
McKinney            56  35  57  36  60 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Dallas              58  40  60  41  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 
Terrell             58  36  58  37  62 /   0   0  20   5   0 
Corsicana           58  39  59  41  60 /   0   0  30  20   0 
Temple              60  35  59  40  62 /   0   0  40  20   5 
Mineral Wells       59  32  58  38  62 /   0   0  20   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

WACO Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 37 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 00:40:09

374 
CDUS44 KFWD 200640
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
1239 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2018


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         54    349 PM  87    1949  67    -13       64       
  MINIMUM         37   1156 PM  24    1903  45     -8       37       
  AVERAGE         46                        56    -10       51      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          2.87 1992   0.08  -0.08     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    3.08                      1.90   1.18     1.30    
  SINCE SEP 1     20.54                      8.86  11.68     2.95    
  SINCE JAN 1     30.15                     31.02  -0.87    31.66    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.0    MM   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       19                        10      9       14       
  MONTH TO DATE  231                       132     99       68       
  SINCE SEP 1    322                       199    123      149       
  SINCE JUL 1    322                       199    123      149       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         1     -1        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    3                        31    -28       88       
  SINCE SEP 1    660                       592     68      716       
  SINCE JAN 1   3369                      2787    582     3056       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    14   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (360)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    17   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (350)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.3                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    85          1000 PM                                     
 LOWEST     50           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    68                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   67        85      1949                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   45        23      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   701 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 21 2018......SUNRISE   702 AM CST   SUNSET   527 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

DALLAS FORT WORTH Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 00:40:09

373 
CDUS44 KFWD 200640
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
1239 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2018


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         54    420 PM  87    1950  65    -11       63       
  MINIMUM         36    510 AM  20    1903  45     -9       38       
  AVERAGE         45                        55    -10       51      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          2.77 1907   0.08  -0.08     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.85                      1.88  -1.03     0.81    
  SINCE SEP 1     29.20                      8.65  20.55     3.40    
  SINCE JAN 1     51.41                     32.76  18.65    32.06    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           T    1930   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       20                        10     10       14       
  MONTH TO DATE  249                       142    107       70       
  SINCE SEP 1    352                       214    138      129       
  SINCE JUL 1    352                       214    138      129       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         1     -1        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    1                        27    -26       71       
  SINCE SEP 1    550                       568    -18      756       
  SINCE JAN 1   3149                      2750    399     3257       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (350)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (350)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.9                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    76           700 AM                                     
 LOWEST     45           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    61                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   65        84      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   44        23      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   703 AM CST   SUNSET   524 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 21 2018......SUNRISE   704 AM CST   SUNSET   524 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 11:27 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 23:27:17

074 
FXUS64 KFWD 200527 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1127 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.AVIATION...
No aviation weather concerns across North and Central Texas
through Tuesday night with only few to scattered high clouds and a
north to northeast wind at speeds less than 10 knots.  

79

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tonight/

Skies will continue to clear this afternoon from north to south 
as a deep layer of dry air continues to plunge southward. With the
dry air, clear skies and light winds...optimal radiational 
cooling is anticipated. Have nudged temperatures a few degrees 
below MOS values, especially across some of the sheltered and low-
lying areas. Most areas should see overnight lows fall into the 
30s with parts of the Big Country and across the sheltered/low-
lying areas falling below 32 degrees. The dry air aloft, coupled 
with some breeziness at 925mb (wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots) 
should for the most part mitigate a widespread fog threat. The 
exception to this may be across some of these sheltered spots 
where very shallow fog may develop.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tuesday through Early Next Week/

North and Central Texas will begin the period situated between a 
large scale upper trough to the east and a shortwave trough 
(embedded in the southern stream flow) to over Baja California. 
The resulting upper level flow will produce shortwave ridging and
subsidence overhead. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will 
be centered just north of the Red River on Tuesday. So after a 
chilly start, plentiful sun will allow temperatures to climb into 
the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Light north winds and
weak cold air advection south of the surface high should keep 
temperatures from climbing any higher than that.

Winds will veer to the east late Tuesday night and then to the 
southeast Wednesday morning as the surface ridge shifts east
of the area. Mid and high clouds will increase during the day
Wednesday as the shortwave approaches from the west. Scattered
showers should develop just west and south of the area by midday
Wednesday where moisture and lift will be on the increase in 
advance of the approaching shortwave, and these showers should 
begin to affect the area by Wednesday afternoon. The lack of 
significant moisture return will keep precipitation totals on the 
light side, and confined to areas mainly along and south of I-20 
(where the higher POPs will be). The activity will move quickly 
east of the region Wednesday night as the shortwave heads for the
Central Gulf Coast. The exiting disturbance will leave North and 
Central Texas with dry weather and seasonable temperatures (lows 
around 40 and highs around 60) for Thanksgiving Day. 

Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave will be traveling east across the
Great Basin Thanksgiving afternoon and evening. The subsequent 
strengthening of a lee-Rockies surface trough will enhance the 
pressure gradient across the Plains, leading to increasing 
southerly low level flow across the forecast area Thursday night. 
The latest progs continue to dig and strengthen the shortwave over
the Southern Plains late Thursday night and Friday morning, 
generating strong forcing for ascent over the area on Friday. 
Despite the system's intensity, moisture return will likely be too
limited and brief for convective development across much of the 
area, and at this time it looks like this will be mainly an East 
Texas through the Mississippi Valley convective event. However, 
there should be a window of opportunity Friday late morning and 
afternoon for shower and thunderstorm development east of 
Interstate 35 before activity accelerates off to the east. 

It is still a bit to early to get an accurate assessment on the 
severe threat due to model discrepancies regarding timing and
strength. Even if the ECMWF (which remains the most aggressive 
with overall intensity) verifies, the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms would likely still remain just east of the area 
where convective parameters will be more favorable. For now we
will keep the chance POPs for areas generally along and east of
the I-35 corridor with the probability of strong to severe storms
being far too low to mention.

Saturday is shaping up to be a nice one as subsidence behind the 
shortwave creates warm and dry weather, with highs in the upper 
60s and lower 70s. This will be short-lived, however, as the next 
upper trough swings across the Plains Saturday night and a strong
cold front pushes through the area. The latest timing for this 
front is looking like Saturday night or Sunday, with only low-end 
POPs expected due to the lack of moisture. A return to seasonably 
cool weather can be expected early next week behind the front.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  58  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Waco                34  61  37  58  41 /   0   0   0  30  10 
Paris               37  56  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              32  57  35  57  39 /   0   0   0   5   5 
McKinney            33  57  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Dallas              39  59  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Terrell             38  58  36  58  39 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Corsicana           39  60  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  20  10 
Temple              36  61  37  58  42 /   0   0   0  30  20 
Mineral Wells       32  58  34  58  38 /   0   0   0  20   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River near Long Lake (Oakwood) [TX] till Nov 23, 10:00 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 18:37:52

456 
WGUS84 KFWD 200037
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
   Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
   Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC001-161-289-201237-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-181124T0400Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181021T1637Z.181024T1345Z.181123T1600Z.NO/
637 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 0630 PM Monday the stage was 38.61 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 5:37 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 17:37:22

321 
FXUS64 KFWD 192337
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018


.AVIATION...
Upper level high pressure will remain over the region through 
Tuesday, resulting in VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky.

A northerly wind will continue at all TAF sites through Tuesday 
afternoon at speeds generally below 10 knots.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tonight/

Skies will continue to clear this afternoon from north to south 
as a deep layer of dry air continues to plunge southward. With the
dry air, clear skies and light winds...optimal radiational 
cooling is anticipated. Have nudged temperatures a few degrees 
below MOS values, especially across some of the sheltered and low-
lying areas. Most areas should see overnight lows fall into the 
30s with parts of the Big Country and across the sheltered/low-
lying areas falling below 32 degrees. The dry air aloft, coupled 
with some breeziness at 925mb (wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots) 
should for the most part mitigate a widespread fog threat. The 
exception to this may be across some of these sheltered spots 
where very shallow fog may develop.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tuesday through Early Next Week/

North and Central Texas will begin the period situated between a 
large scale upper trough to the east and a shortwave trough 
(embedded in the southern stream flow) to over Baja California. 
The resulting upper level flow will produce shortwave ridging and
subsidence overhead. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will 
be centered just north of the Red River on Tuesday. So after a 
chilly start, plentiful sun will allow temperatures to climb into 
the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Light north winds and
weak cold air advection south of the surface high should keep 
temperatures from climbing any higher than that.

Winds will veer to the east late Tuesday night and then to the 
southeast Wednesday morning as the surface ridge shifts east
of the area. Mid and high clouds will increase during the day
Wednesday as the shortwave approaches from the west. Scattered
showers should develop just west and south of the area by midday
Wednesday where moisture and lift will be on the increase in 
advance of the approaching shortwave, and these showers should 
begin to affect the area by Wednesday afternoon. The lack of 
significant moisture return will keep precipitation totals on the 
light side, and confined to areas mainly along and south of I-20 
(where the higher POPs will be). The activity will move quickly 
east of the region Wednesday night as the shortwave heads for the
Central Gulf Coast. The exiting disturbance will leave North and 
Central Texas with dry weather and seasonable temperatures (lows 
around 40 and highs around 60) for Thanksgiving Day. 

Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave will be traveling east across the
Great Basin Thanksgiving afternoon and evening. The subsequent 
strengthening of a lee-Rockies surface trough will enhance the 
pressure gradient across the Plains, leading to increasing 
southerly low level flow across the forecast area Thursday night. 
The latest progs continue to dig and strengthen the shortwave over
the Southern Plains late Thursday night and Friday morning, 
generating strong forcing for ascent over the area on Friday. 
Despite the system's intensity, moisture return will likely be too
limited and brief for convective development across much of the 
area, and at this time it looks like this will be mainly an East 
Texas through the Mississippi Valley convective event. However, 
there should be a window of opportunity Friday late morning and 
afternoon for shower and thunderstorm development east of 
Interstate 35 before activity accelerates off to the east. 

It is still a bit to early to get an accurate assessment on the 
severe threat due to model discrepancies regarding timing and
strength. Even if the ECMWF (which remains the most aggressive 
with overall intensity) verifies, the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms would likely still remain just east of the area 
where convective parameters will be more favorable. For now we
will keep the chance POPs for areas generally along and east of
the I-35 corridor with the probability of strong to severe storms
being far too low to mention.

Saturday is shaping up to be a nice one as subsidence behind the 
shortwave creates warm and dry weather, with highs in the upper 
60s and lower 70s. This will be short-lived, however, as the next 
upper trough swings across the Plains Saturday night and a strong
cold front pushes through the area. The latest timing for this 
front is looking like Saturday night or Sunday, with only low-end 
POPs expected due to the lack of moisture. A return to seasonably 
cool weather can be expected early next week behind the front.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  58  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Waco                34  61  37  58  41 /   0   0   0  30  10 
Paris               37  56  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              32  57  35  57  39 /   0   0   0   5   5 
McKinney            33  57  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Dallas              39  59  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Terrell             38  58  36  58  39 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Corsicana           39  60  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  20  10 
Temple              36  61  37  58  42 /   0   0   0  30  20 
Mineral Wells       32  58  34  58  38 /   0   0   0  20   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25

DALLAS FORT WORTH Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 16:24:17

538 
CDUS44 KFWD 192224
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
423 PM CST MON NOV 19 2018


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         54    359 PM  87    1950  65    -11       63       
  MINIMUM         36    510 AM  20    1903  45     -9       38       
  AVERAGE         45                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          2.77 1907   0.08  -0.08     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.85                      1.88  -1.03     0.81    
  SINCE SEP 1     29.20                      8.65  20.55     3.40    
  SINCE JAN 1     51.41                     32.76  18.65    32.06    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           T    1930   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (350)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (350)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.6                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   65        84      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   44        23      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 19 2018......SUNRISE   702 AM CST   SUNSET   525 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   703 AM CST   SUNSET   524 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

WACO Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 41 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 16:24:17

537 
CDUS44 KFWD 192224
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
423 PM CST MON NOV 19 2018


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         54    349 PM  87    1949  67    -13       64       
  MINIMUM         41    726 AM  24    1903  45     -4       37       
  AVERAGE         48                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          2.87 1992   0.08  -0.08     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    3.08                      1.90   1.18     1.30    
  SINCE SEP 1     20.54                      8.86  11.68     2.95    
  SINCE JAN 1     30.15                     31.02  -0.87    31.66    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           0.0    MM   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    14   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (360)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    17   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (350)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     7.9                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   67        85      1949                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   45        23      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 19 2018......SUNRISE   700 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   701 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 3:28 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 15:28:15

217 
FXUS64 KFWD 192128
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Skies will continue to clear this afternoon from north to south 
as a deep layer of dry air continues to plunge southward. With the
dry air, clear skies and light winds...optimal radiational 
cooling is anticipated. Have nudged temperatures a few degrees 
below MOS values, especially across some of the sheltered and low-
lying areas. Most areas should see overnight lows fall into the 
30s with parts of the Big Country and across the sheltered/low-
lying areas falling below 32 degrees. The dry air aloft, coupled 
with some breeziness at 925mb (wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots) 
should for the most part mitigate a widespread fog threat. The 
exception to this may be across some of these sheltered spots 
where very shallow fog may develop.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Early Next Week/

North and Central Texas will begin the period situated between a 
large scale upper trough to the east and a shortwave trough 
(embedded in the southern stream flow) to over Baja California. 
The resulting upper level flow will produce shortwave ridging and
subsidence overhead. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will 
be centered just north of the Red River on Tuesday. So after a 
chilly start, plentiful sun will allow temperatures to climb into 
the mid and upper 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Light north winds and
weak cold air advection south of the surface high should keep 
temperatures from climbing any higher than that.

Winds will veer to the east late Tuesday night and then to the 
southeast Wednesday morning as the surface ridge shifts east
of the area. Mid and high clouds will increase during the day
Wednesday as the shortwave approaches from the west. Scattered
showers should develop just west and south of the area by midday
Wednesday where moisture and lift will be on the increase in 
advance of the approaching shortwave, and these showers should 
begin to affect the area by Wednesday afternoon. The lack of 
significant moisture return will keep precipitation totals on the 
light side, and confined to areas mainly along and south of I-20 
(where the higher POPs will be). The activity will move quickly 
east of the region Wednesday night as the shortwave heads for the
Central Gulf Coast. The exiting disturbance will leave North and 
Central Texas with dry weather and seasonable temperatures (lows 
around 40 and highs around 60) for Thanksgiving Day. 

Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave will be traveling east across the
Great Basin Thanksgiving afternoon and evening. The subsequent 
strengthening of a lee-Rockies surface trough will enhance the 
pressure gradient across the Plains, leading to increasing 
southerly low level flow across the forecast area Thursday night. 
The latest progs continue to dig and strengthen the shortwave over
the Southern Plains late Thursday night and Friday morning, 
generating strong forcing for ascent over the area on Friday. 
Despite the system's intensity, moisture return will likely be too
limited and brief for convective development across much of the 
area, and at this time it looks like this will be mainly an East 
Texas through the Mississippi Valley convective event. However, 
there should be a window of opportunity Friday late morning and 
afternoon for shower and thunderstorm development east of 
Interstate 35 before activity accelerates off to the east. 

It is still a bit to early to get an accurate assessment on the 
severe threat due to model discrepancies regarding timing and
strength. Even if the ECMWF (which remains the most aggressive 
with overall intensity) verifies, the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms would likely still remain just east of the area 
where convective parameters will be more favorable. For now we
will keep the chance POPs for areas generally along and east of
the I-35 corridor with the probability of strong to severe storms
being far too low to mention.

Saturday is shaping up to be a nice one as subsidence behind the 
shortwave creates warm and dry weather, with highs in the upper 
60s and lower 70s. This will be short-lived, however, as the next 
upper trough swings across the Plains Saturday night and a strong
cold front pushes through the area. The latest timing for this 
front is looking like Saturday night or Sunday, with only low-end 
POPs expected due to the lack of moisture. A return to seasonably 
cool weather can be expected early next week behind the front.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1244 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR (Metroplex TAF sites) with north flow.
Brief MVFR potential at Waco this afternoon. 

Clouds will continue to clear from the north as dry air 
infiltrates down the Southern Plains. A few puffs of clouds 
between FL040 and FL050 will be possible at D/FW Metroplex TAFs, 
but this should be short-lived and of little to no operational 
impact. At Waco, very brief MVFR will be possible over the next 1 
to 2 hours. Given the expected short duration of stratus below 
FL031...will keep things VFR and monitor trends. CAVU should be 
the rule after 00 UTC Tuesday at all TAFs with light northerly 
surface winds...though surface winds may be variable at times. 
With surface wind speeds below 8 knots, terminals may have some 
flexibility in exercising south flow operations. The BR/FG 
potential looks low given the dry air in place and northerly 
breezes aloft. Nevertheless, future shifts may need to examine 
this possible hazard in later TAFs.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  58  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Waco                34  61  37  58  41 /   0   0   0  30  10 
Paris               37  56  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              32  57  35  57  39 /   0   0   0   5   5 
McKinney            33  57  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Dallas              39  59  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Terrell             38  58  36  58  39 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Corsicana           39  60  36  58  40 /   0   0   0  20  10 
Temple              36  61  37  58  42 /   0   0   0  30  20 
Mineral Wells       32  58  34  58  38 /   0   0   0  20   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/30

FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 19, 3:27 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 15:27:19

082 
FLUS44 KFWD 192127
HWOFWD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
327 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight. 
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
There will be a chance of thunderstorms near and east of the I-35 
corridor on Friday. At this time, the main hazard appears to be 
lightning. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 12:44 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 12:44:56

575 
FXUS64 KFWD 191844 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018


.AVIATION...
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR (Metroplex TAF sites) with north flow.
Brief MVFR potential at Waco this afternoon. 

Clouds will continue to clear from the north as dry air 
infiltrates down the Southern Plains. A few puffs of clouds 
between FL040 and FL050 will be possible at D/FW Metroplex TAFs, 
but this should be short-lived and of little to no operational 
impact. At Waco, very brief MVFR will be possible over the next 1 
to 2 hours. Given the expected short duration of stratus below 
FL031...will keep things VFR and monitor trends. CAVU should be 
the rule after 00 UTC Tuesday at all TAFs with light northerly 
surface winds...though surface winds may be variable at times. 
With surface wind speeds below 8 knots, terminals may have some 
flexibility in exercising south flow operations. The BR/FG 
potential looks low given the dry air in place and northerly 
breezes aloft. Nevertheless, future shifts may need to examine 
this possible hazard in later TAFs.

Bain

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 250 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

After a cold and cloudy day yesterday, we'll see clouds scatter
out today and temperatures rebound into the 50s this afternoon.
Water vapor imagery shows an elongated trough axis extending from
the 4-corners region all the way into the Midwest. This feature
will slowly push eastward through tonight ushering in much drier
air aloft later today resulting in clearing skies. This morning,
some scattered showers will persist mainly across the southeast
counties in an area of weak isentropic ascent along with a weak
passing disturbance embedded in the fast westerly flow. This
forcing will quickly pull off to the east later this morning with
rain chances ending by midday. Skies will be a little slower to
clear across our far southern counties where precipitation is
ongoing, but most areas should be clear by this evening. Highs
today will top out in the low to mid 50s.

Another cold night is in store with high pressure in place and
light winds. Lows will range from near freezing in our northwest
counties to the mid/upper 30s elsewhere.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 250 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/
/Tuesday Onward/

High pressure will be in control on Tuesday with upper ridging
ongoing aloft. The dry air in place should warm up rather quickly
with plenty of insolation. Overall, it should be a pleasant day, 
and at least a few degrees warmer than Monday as winds slowly 
return to the east. Moisture will remain scoured due to the 
recent cold frontal passage, and will have a difficult time 
recovering with an unfavorable Gulf fetch. 

By Wednesday, a split flow regime is expected to develop to our 
west, with the southern branch shortwave expected to traverse the
forecast area on Wednesday. As this disturbance acts to enhance 
low-level southerly wind fields, moisture will make some attempt 
to return northward by midday. Depending on the degree of moisture 
return, scattered showers will be possible through Wednesday 
afternoon and evening as the main lift from the shortwave 
impinges on the area. The NAM is the most aggressive with
returning moisture to the area while the GFS is quite dry, with 
the ECMWF somewhere in between. While model QPF fields are 
rather meager owing to the lack of moisture, the strong ascent 
and steepening lapse rates associated with this vigorous disturbance
should be sufficient to allow some precipitation to develop. Have
kept PoPs a bit higher than what QPF depictions might typically 
warrant. The NAM is even indicating sufficiently steep lapse 
rates through the mid levels for some isolated thunder occurrences
across Central Texas, but will keep only showers in the worded 
forecast for the time being. Otherwise, the increase in associated
cloud cover should keep temperatures on the cool side, around 60 
degrees for highs. 

In wake of the departing shortwave, a dry and pleasant 
Thanksgiving is expected with highs forecast to be just shy of 
normal in the low to mid 60s. Winds should be fairly light out of 
the south. A plume of mid/high clouds may spread into the area 
late in the day in advance of another disturbance forecast to 
affect the area on Friday. 

There are still some substantial differences among operational
models and their ensembles on how to handle the breakdown of the
West Coast ridge through the end of the week. This continues to 
wreak havoc on the forecast through days 5-7 with quite a bit of 
uncertainty. The ECMWF remains the southernmost solution with an 
amplifying trough to our west, digging a potent shortwave and an 
associated 150+ kt upper jet into the Southern Plains. The GFS 
remains a few hundred miles farther north with this energy,
positioning us on the equatorward side of the upper jet axis. The
ECMWF solution would support fairly widespread rain and 
thunderstorms for us on Friday and heading into the weekend, while
the GFS would keep the greatest rain chances well to our north 
and east. For now, have generally stuck with an ensemble mean 
solution with some low PoPs across the eastern half of the 
forecast area until some better agreement exists. It does appear 
that a cold front associated with the deepening trough will be
pulled through the forecast area sometime next weekend regardless
of the exact track of the shortwave. However, precipitation 
chances with this feature remain uncertain at this point. 

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    37  59  37  60  42 /   0   0   0  20  30 
Waco                35  61  35  60  43 /   0   0   0  30  40 
Paris               34  57  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              32  59  34  60  40 /   0   0   0  10  20 
McKinney            34  58  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Dallas              38  60  38  60  43 /   0   0   0  20  30 
Terrell             35  60  35  60  40 /   0   0   0  10  30 
Corsicana           39  58  38  59  43 /   0   0   0  20  40 
Temple              36  61  35  60  44 /   0   0   0  30  30 
Mineral Wells       32  59  33  60  40 /   0   0   0  20  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/30

SHV continues Flood Warning for Neches River near Diboll [TX] until further notice
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 11:41:20

804 
WGUS84 KSHV 191741
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1141 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-201740-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-181125T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181110T0730Z.181114T0400Z.181124T0600Z.NO/
1141 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches.
* until Saturday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:30 AM Monday The stage was 14.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Saturday morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding.  Move livestock and 
  equipment to higher ground away from the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-201740-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-181125T2100Z/
/ATOT2.1.ER.181113T0545Z.181118T2115Z.181124T0900Z.NO/
1141 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 11:15 AM Monday The stage was 17.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet. 
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Expect moderate to severe flooding of the 
  heavily wooded floodplain. Boat ramps and picnic areas will be 
  completely inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-201740-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181112T1245Z.181114T0230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1141 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 11:15 AM Monday The stage was 12.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.0 feet by 
  Friday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

10


GTXWXBot[OK]:

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 12:03 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 12:03:40

560 
FXUS64 KOUN 201803
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1203 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue. Light winds will gradually turn
south and remain under 12 knots except gusty this afternoon at 
KWWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are on a trend to reach through the 50s this
afternoon. Light northeast wind will become south in western
Oklahoma. No forecast changes are made at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         54  33  57  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     51  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         55  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/23/09

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 20, 11:17 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 11:17:40

532 
FLUS44 KOUN 201717
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1117 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1117 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Winter Weather...
Rain transitioning to snow will be possible across portions of 
northern Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday. Some accumulations 
could be possible near the Oklahoma-Kansas state border in northwest
Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow 
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Mahale/25

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 9:47 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 09:47:31

396 
FXUS64 KOUN 201547
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
947 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are on a trend to reach through the 50s this
afternoon. Light northeast wind will become south in western
Oklahoma. No forecast changes are made at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         54  33  57  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     51  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         55  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/23

WICHITA FALLS Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 57 Low: 26 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 06:25:51

441 
CDUS44 KOUN 201225 RRA
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1239 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2018


................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         57    353 PM  87    1949  64     -7       62       
  MINIMUM         26    732 AM  22    1937  39    -13       33       
  AVERAGE         42                        51     -9       48      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          1.72 1963   0.05  -0.05     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.21                      1.13  -0.92     0.10    
  SINCE SEP 1     15.02                      7.05   7.97     4.54    
  SINCE JAN 1     32.66                     26.78   5.88    24.62    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           T    1988   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       23                        14      9       17       
  MONTH TO DATE  308                       199    109      156       
  SINCE SEP 1    475                       325    150      293       
  SINCE JUL 1    475                       325    150      293       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                        10    -10       24       
  SINCE SEP 1    416                       441    -25      483       
  SINCE JAN 1   2785                      2386    399     2325       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (340)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    15   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.2                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    92           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     43           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    68                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   63        85      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        21      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   711 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 21 2018......SUNRISE   712 AM CST   SUNSET   527 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 21 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 06:21:11

800 
CDUS44 KOUN 201221
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1239 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2018


................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         53    402 PM  82    1898  60     -7       59       
  MINIMUM         21    728 AM  18    1937  39    -18       29       
  AVERAGE         37                        49    -12       44      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          4.46 1899   0.06  -0.06     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.19                      1.37  -1.18     0.07    
  SINCE SEP 1     13.98                      9.14   4.84     9.83    
  SINCE JAN 1     41.33                     34.03   7.30    33.04    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           1.2  1906   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.8                       0.1    0.7      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.8                       0.1    0.7       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.8                       0.1    0.7       T      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       28                        16     12       21       
  MONTH TO DATE  391                       231    160      225       
  SINCE SEP 1    625                       395    230      406       
  SINCE JUL 1    625                       395    230      406       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         7     -7        5       
  SINCE SEP 1    327                       362    -35      345       
  SINCE JAN 1   2082                      2099    -17     1916       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NW (330)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (340)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.5                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           500 AM                                     
 LOWEST     46           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    73                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   59        82      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        19      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   711 AM CST   SUNSET   521 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 21 2018......SUNRISE   712 AM CST   SUNSET   521 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 5:32 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 05:32:40

555 
FXUS64 KOUN 201132
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
532 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period. Skies will remain
clear. Expect mainly southeast to south winds by this afternoon,
with speeds around 5 to 10 kt. Some slighlty stronger gusts will
be possible at WWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
A surface high situated over eastern KS will continue to slide
southward today. Temps will remain below average under this
feature. Low level flow will become more southerly by tomorrow as
a shortwave trough moves over central and north TX. Moisture
advertised with this wave is low so and lift associated with it
should remain south of the Red River now. Therefore, will keep a
dry forecast for Wed now with only an increase in mid to high 
cloud cover.

Thanksgiving Day will be near average under a mid to upper ridge
axis. South winds will increase a tad to around 15 mph during the
afternoon. The next chance of precipitation arrives Fri with a
fairly progressive upper trough. The highest chances will be
along and east of I-35, where moisture will reside long enough.
Otherwise, a dryslot will likely "shut down" precip very quickly
during black Friday.

The most significant feature this forecast period is still a deep
trough expected to impact the plains late in the weekend. The GFS
and ECMWF have swapped solutions, with the GFS now much further 
south with its placement. This solution is an outlier and ensemble
member suggest the same. Therefore, have only included some brief
snowfall for extreme northwestern OK Sunday. It is now very 
likely, however, that breezy NW winds will accompany the 
associated surface low and cold front throughout the day. Any 
displacement to the south with the aforementioned feature will 
surely result in more precipitation than currently expected, 
including snow, blowing snow, and perhaps blizzard conditions. 
This will be watched very closely over the next several days. 
Overall, it appears below average temps can be expected through 
early next week with a longwave trough engulfing the central and 
eastern CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         54  33  57  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     51  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         55  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/03/03

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 4:49 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 04:49:43

850 
FXUS64 KOUN 201049
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
449 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A surface high situated over eastern KS will continue to slide
southward today. Temps will remain below average under this
feature. Low level flow will become more southerly by tomorrow as
a shortwave trough moves over central and north TX. Moisture
advertised with this wave is low so and lift associated with it
should remain south of the Red River now. Therefore, will keep a
dry forecast for Wed now with only an increase in mid to high 
cloud cover.

Thanksgiving Day will be near average under a mid to upper ridge
axis. South winds will increase a tad to around 15 mph during the
afternoon. The next chance of precipitation arrives Fri with a
fairly progressive upper trough. The highest chances will be
along and east of I-35, where moisture will reside long enough.
Otherwise, a dryslot will likely "shut down" precip very quickly
during black Friday.

The most significant feature this forecast period is still a deep
trough expected to impact the plains late in the weekend. The GFS
and ECMWF have swapped solutions, with the GFS now much further 
south with its placement. This solution is an outlier and ensemble
member suggest the same. Therefore, have only included some brief
snowfall for extreme northwestern OK Sunday. It is now very 
likely, however, that breezy NW winds will accompany the 
associated surface low and cold front throughout the day. Any 
displacement to the south with the aforementioned feature will 
surely result in more precipitation than currently expected, 
including snow, blowing snow, and perhaps blizzard conditions. 
This will be watched very closely over the next several days. 
Overall, it appears below average temps can be expected through 
early next week with a longwave trough engulfing the central and 
eastern CONUS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         54  33  57  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     51  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         55  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/03

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 20, 4:00 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 04:00:37

633 
FLUS44 KOUN 201000
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
400 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
400 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Winter Weather...
Rain transitioning to snow will be possible across portions of 
northwest Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday. Some accumulations 
will be possible near the Oklahoma-Kansas state border in far 
northwest Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow 
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Mahale

WICHITA FALLS Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 57 Low: 26 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 00:40:45

579 
CDUS44 KOUN 200640 RRA
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1239 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2018


................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         57    353 PM  87    1949  64     -7       62       
  MINIMUM         26    732 AM  22    1937  39    -13       33       
  AVERAGE         42                        51     -9       48      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          1.72 1963   0.05  -0.05     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.21                      1.13  -0.92     0.10    
  SINCE SEP 1     15.02                      7.05   7.97     4.54    
  SINCE JAN 1     32.66                     26.78   5.88    24.62    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           T    1988   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       23                        14      9       17       
  MONTH TO DATE  308                       199    109      156       
  SINCE SEP 1    475                       325    150      293       
  SINCE JUL 1    475                       325    150      293       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                        10    -10       24       
  SINCE SEP 1    416                       441    -25      483       
  SINCE JAN 1   2785                      2386    399     2325       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (340)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    15   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.2                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    92           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     43           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    68                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   63        85      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        21      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   711 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 21 2018......SUNRISE   712 AM CST   SUNSET   527 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 21 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday November 20, 2018, 00:40:27

036 
CDUS44 KOUN 200640
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1239 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2018


................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         53    402 PM  82    1898  60     -7       59       
  MINIMUM         21    728 AM  18    1937  39    -18       29       
  AVERAGE         37                        49    -12       44      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          4.46 1899   0.06  -0.06     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.19                      1.37  -1.18     0.07    
  SINCE SEP 1     13.98                      9.14   4.84     9.83    
  SINCE JAN 1     41.33                     34.03   7.30    33.04    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           1.2  1906   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.8                       0.1    0.7      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.8                       0.1    0.7       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.8                       0.1    0.7       T      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       28                        16     12       21       
  MONTH TO DATE  391                       231    160      225       
  SINCE SEP 1    625                       395    230      406       
  SINCE JUL 1    625                       395    230      406       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         7     -7        5       
  SINCE SEP 1    327                       362    -35      345       
  SINCE JAN 1   2082                      2099    -17     1916       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NW (330)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (340)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.5                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           500 AM                                     
 LOWEST     46           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    73                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   59        82      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        19      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   711 AM CST   SUNSET   521 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 21 2018......SUNRISE   712 AM CST   SUNSET   521 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 10:42 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 22:42:36

178 
FXUS64 KOUN 200442
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs: 

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the end of
the TAF period. Some variability in wind direction could occur
from what is shown in the TAFs, but speeds are expected to stay
below 10 knots. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 900 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

UPDATE...
Minor changes to hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on
observation trends.

PREV DISCUSSION...  /issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet weather is expected across the area through the 
end of the week as a couple weak shortwaves traverse the area. The
first shortwave will move south of the area across Texas on 
Wednesday, although with minimal moisture to work with it should 
remain dry. 

Southerly flow then strengthens Thursday ahead of the next 
shortwave that moves into the Plains on Friday. This should help 
warm temperatures to above normal readings, along with bringing 
moisture northward. This moisture return will be short lived, 
however, as the progressive nature of the wave quickly shunts 
surface moisture to the east. This will limit precipitation 
chances to mostly along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon. Weak 
CAPE progged in the models may allow for some isolated 
thunderstorm activity as well, although the limited instability 
should preclude a severe weather threat. 

Attention then turns to the next system for this weekend, 
although model disagreement is high given a convoluted upper 
pattern. In general, a longwave trough should exist across the 
center of the country, with multiple shortwaves dropping into the 
trough through the weekend into early next week. Models disagree 
on the amplitude of these waves within the fast moving upper flow.
The 12z GFS is more progressive, featuring a mostly dry frontal 
passage late Saturday into Sunday. The 12z ECMWF is more amplified
showing a closed upper low over northern OK/southern KS by Sunday
evening, with wrap- around snow potential across northern OK. 
Will not go quite as aggressive as the ECMWF solution, but will 
add some chance POPs for a rain/snow mix across portions of 
northern OK Saturday night into Sunday. Model trends will be 
monitored to see if the more amplified solution shown by the ECMWF
becomes more likely. Regardless of precipitation chances, cooler 
temperatures can be expected behind the cold front by Sunday and 
continuing into early next week. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  31  51  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         53  30  53  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  54  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           51  28  55  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     50  28  50  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         51  33  54  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/12/12

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 9:00 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 21:00:49

859 
FXUS64 KOUN 200300 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
900 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Minor changes to hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on
observation trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the end of
the TAF period. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet weather is expected across the area through the 
end of the week as a couple weak shortwaves traverse the area. The
first shortwave will move south of the area across Texas on 
Wednesday, although with minimal moisture to work with it should 
remain dry. 

Southerly flow then strengthens Thursday ahead of the next 
shortwave that moves into the Plains on Friday. This should help 
warm temperatures to above normal readings, along with bringing 
moisture northward. This moisture return will be short lived, 
however, as the progressive nature of the wave quickly shunts 
surface moisture to the east. This will limit precipitation 
chances to mostly along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon. Weak 
CAPE progged in the models may allow for some isolated 
thunderstorm activity as well, although the limited instability 
should preclude a severe weather threat. 

Attention then turns to the next system for this weekend, 
although model disagreement is high given a convoluted upper 
pattern. In general, a longwave trough should exist across the 
center of the country, with multiple shortwaves dropping into the 
trough through the weekend into early next week. Models disagree 
on the amplitude of these waves within the fast moving upper flow.
The 12z GFS is more progressive, featuring a mostly dry frontal 
passage late Saturday into Sunday. The 12z ECMWF is more amplified
showing a closed upper low over northern OK/southern KS by Sunday
evening, with wrap- around snow potential across northern OK. 
Will not go quite as aggressive as the ECMWF solution, but will 
add some chance POPs for a rain/snow mix across portions of 
northern OK Saturday night into Sunday. Model trends will be 
monitored to see if the more amplified solution shown by the ECMWF
becomes more likely. Regardless of precipitation chances, cooler 
temperatures can be expected behind the cold front by Sunday and 
continuing into early next week. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  31  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         30  53  34  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  32  54  35  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           28  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     28  50  31  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/12

WICHITA FALLS Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 57 Low: 26 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 17:23:13

240 
CDUS44 KOUN 192323
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
522 PM CST MON NOV 19 2018


................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         57    353 PM  87    1949  64     -7       62       
  MINIMUM         26    732 AM  22    1937  39    -13       33       
  AVERAGE         42                        51     -9       48      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          1.72 1963   0.05  -0.05     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.21                      1.13  -0.92     0.10    
  SINCE SEP 1     15.02                      7.05   7.97     4.54    
  SINCE JAN 1     32.66                     26.78   5.88    24.62    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           T    1988   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      T                         0.1   -0.1      0.0     
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           23                        14      9       17       
  MONTH TO DATE  308                       199    109      156       
  SINCE SEP 1    475                       325    150      293       
  SINCE JUL 1    475                       325    150      293       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                        10    -10       24       
  SINCE SEP 1    416                       441    -25      483       
  SINCE JAN 1   2785                      2386    399     2325       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     W (280)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    15   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.9                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                            
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    92           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     43           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    68                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   63        85      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        21      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 19 2018......SUNRISE   710 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   711 AM CST   SUNSET   528 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 21 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 17:22:57

552 
CDUS44 KOUN 192322
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
522 PM CST MON NOV 19 2018


................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2018...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         53    402 PM  82    1898  60     -7       59       
  MINIMUM         21    728 AM  18    1937  39    -18       29       
  AVERAGE         37                        49    -12       44      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          4.46 1899   0.06  -0.06     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.19                      1.37  -1.18     0.07    
  SINCE SEP 1     13.98                      9.14   4.84     9.83    
  SINCE JAN 1     41.33                     34.03   7.30    33.04    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           1.2  1906   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.8                       0.1    0.7      0.0     
  SINCE SEP 1      0.8                       0.1    0.7       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.8                       0.1    0.7       T      
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           28                        16     12       21       
  MONTH TO DATE  391                       231    160      225       
  SINCE SEP 1    625                       395    230      406       
  SINCE JUL 1    625                       395    230      406       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         7     -7        5       
  SINCE SEP 1    327                       362    -35      345       
  SINCE JAN 1   2082                      2099    -17     1916       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NW (330)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     N (340)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.6                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                            
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           500 AM                                     
 LOWEST     46           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    73                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   59        82      2007                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   38        19      1937                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
NOVEMBER 19 2018......SUNRISE   710 AM CST   SUNSET   522 PM CST   
NOVEMBER 20 2018......SUNRISE   711 AM CST   SUNSET   521 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 4:42 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 16:42:41

985 
FXUS64 KOUN 192242
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
442 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the end of
the TAF period. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet weather is expected across the area through the 
end of the week as a couple weak shortwaves traverse the area. The
first shortwave will move south of the area across Texas on 
Wednesday, although with minimal moisture to work with it should 
remain dry. 

Southerly flow then strengthens Thursday ahead of the next 
shortwave that moves into the Plains on Friday. This should help 
warm temperatures to above normal readings, along with bringing 
moisture northward. This moisture return will be short lived, 
however, as the progressive nature of the wave quickly shunts 
surface moisture to the east. This will limit precipitation 
chances to mostly along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon. Weak 
CAPE progged in the models may allow for some isolated 
thunderstorm activity as well, although the limited instability 
should preclude a severe weather threat. 

Attention then turns to the next system for this weekend, 
although model disagreement is high given a convoluted upper 
pattern. In general, a longwave trough should exist across the 
center of the country, with multiple shortwaves dropping into the 
trough through the weekend into early next week. Models disagree 
on the amplitude of these waves within the fast moving upper flow.
The 12z GFS is more progressive, featuring a mostly dry frontal 
passage late Saturday into Sunday. The 12z ECMWF is more amplified
showing a closed upper low over northern OK/southern KS by Sunday
evening, with wrap- around snow potential across northern OK. 
Will not go quite as aggressive as the ECMWF solution, but will 
add some chance POPs for a rain/snow mix across portions of 
northern OK Saturday night into Sunday. Model trends will be 
monitored to see if the more amplified solution shown by the ECMWF
becomes more likely. Regardless of precipitation chances, cooler 
temperatures can be expected behind the cold front by Sunday and 
continuing into early next week. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  31  51  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         53  30  53  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  54  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           51  28  55  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     50  28  50  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         51  33  54  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/12/12

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 3:28 PM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 15:29:05

980 
FXUS64 KOUN 192128
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
328 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet weather is expected across the area through the 
end of the week as a couple weak shortwaves traverse the area. The
first shortwave will move south of the area across Texas on 
Wednesday, although with minimal moisture to work with it should 
remain dry. 

Southerly flow then strengthens Thursday ahead of the next 
shortwave that moves into the Plains on Friday. This should help 
warm temperatures to above normal readings, along with bringing 
moisture northward. This moisture return will be short lived, 
however, as the progressive nature of the wave quickly shunts 
surface moisture to the east. This will limit precipitation 
chances to mostly along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon. Weak 
CAPE progged in the models may allow for some isolated 
thunderstorm activity as well, although the limited instability 
should preclude a severe weather threat. 

Attention then turns to the next system for this weekend, 
although model disagreement is high given a convoluted upper 
pattern. In general, a longwave trough should exist across the 
center of the country, with multiple shortwaves dropping into the 
trough through the weekend into early next week. Models disagree 
on the amplitude of these waves within the fast moving upper flow.
The 12z GFS is more progressive, featuring a mostly dry frontal 
passage late Saturday into Sunday. The 12z ECMWF is more amplified
showing a closed upper low over northern OK/southern KS by Sunday
evening, with wrap- around snow potential across northern OK. 
Will not go quite as aggressive as the ECMWF solution, but will 
add some chance POPs for a rain/snow mix across portions of 
northern OK Saturday night into Sunday. Model trends will be 
monitored to see if the more amplified solution shown by the ECMWF
becomes more likely. Regardless of precipitation chances, cooler 
temperatures can be expected behind the cold front by Sunday and 
continuing into early next week. 

PJW
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  31  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         30  53  34  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  32  54  35  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           28  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     28  50  31  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/08

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 19, 11:13 AM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 11:13:41

348 
FLUS44 KOUN 191713
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1113 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible late Thursday into 
Friday, mainly across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Severe 
weather is not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 11:13 AM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 11:13:34

156 
FXUS64 KOUN 191713
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs - VFR conditions expected this forecast period. A front
will continue to move across the area this afternoon/evening
causing winds to shift to the NW/N. Winds will become light and
shifting overnight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1101 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

UPDATE...
Overall going forecast looks good. Front has moved across NW OK
and will continue to move across the fa this afternoon/evening
causing winds to shift to the N/NW. Otherwise, sunny and warmer
than yesterday with highs in the 50s this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will slowly
become northwesterly today, with speeds around 10 to 15 kt. Skies
will generally remain clear.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Stratus continues to shift eastward early this morning and
temperatures have already fallen into the low 20s across
northwestern OK as a result. Expect a frosty sunrise for most
locations. Skies will remain clear throughout the day but
afternoon highs will still remain a few degrees below average,
with weak CAA accompanying a subtle reinforcing cold airmass. 
Another chilly morning is expected Tue under the corresponding 
surface high, especially across northeastern OK. Below average
afternoon max temps are again expected Tue under the surface high
slowly shifting eastward.

A warmup will begin Wed as southerly low level flow returns ahead
of a mid level shortwave trough moving under the ridge over the
Rockies. In addition, this feature still appears it may produce a
few showers across the southwestern zones but certainly do not
expect much QPf with very limited moisture present. Even warmer
conditions will follow through late in the week with a lee low
expected Fri ahead of a deeper shortwave trough moving into the 
Southern Plains. Precipitation chances with this feature appear a 
bit more likely along and east of I-35 after sunrise Friday but 
should quickly shift south during the day as the trough axis does 
the same.

The most significant feature for this forecast will occur during
the extended periods, as a deep Pacific trough digs southeastward
over the central Rockies Sat. The GFS, and most other solutions
including ensembles, are fairly progressive with the trough.
However, the ECMWF paints a different picture this weekend, which
deepens the trough and closes a low somewhere over CO late Sat 
night. This outlying solution could result in blizzard conditions 
over portions of KS, and perhaps as far south as northwestern OK. 
Decided to go somewhere between, which is very similar to what the
Canadian suggests. This would limit any significant impacts 
across our area. The ECMWF solution, obviously, cannot be totally 
ruled out so future consistency and consensus will be watched 
closely over the next several days. Regardless, near the end of 
the forecast period it appears a cold trend is on the way based 
on synoptic pattern agreement of a deep longwave trough developing
over at least the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions also appear 
more likely than not sometime late this weekend into early next 
week with this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  29  52  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         55  28  53  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           52  27  56  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  23  50  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         51  35  54  34 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/99/99

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 11:01 AM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 11:01:59

937 
FXUS64 KOUN 191701 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Overall going forecast looks good. Front has moved across NW OK
and will continue to move across the fa this afternoon/evening
causing winds to shift to the N/NW. Otherwise, sunny and warmer
than yesterday with highs in the 50s this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will slowly
become northwesterly today, with speeds around 10 to 15 kt. Skies
will generally remain clear.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Stratus continues to shift eastward early this morning and
temperatures have already fallen into the low 20s across
northwestern OK as a result. Expect a frosty sunrise for most
locations. Skies will remain clear throughout the day but
afternoon highs will still remain a few degrees below average,
with weak CAA accompanying a subtle reinforcing cold airmass. 
Another chilly morning is expected Tue under the corresponding 
surface high, especially across northeastern OK. Below average
afternoon max temps are again expected Tue under the surface high
slowly shifting eastward.

A warmup will begin Wed as southerly low level flow returns ahead
of a mid level shortwave trough moving under the ridge over the
Rockies. In addition, this feature still appears it may produce a
few showers across the southwestern zones but certainly do not
expect much QPf with very limited moisture present. Even warmer
conditions will follow through late in the week with a lee low
expected Fri ahead of a deeper shortwave trough moving into the 
Southern Plains. Precipitation chances with this feature appear a 
bit more likely along and east of I-35 after sunrise Friday but 
should quickly shift south during the day as the trough axis does 
the same.

The most significant feature for this forecast will occur during
the extended periods, as a deep Pacific trough digs southeastward
over the central Rockies Sat. The GFS, and most other solutions
including ensembles, are fairly progressive with the trough.
However, the ECMWF paints a different picture this weekend, which
deepens the trough and closes a low somewhere over CO late Sat 
night. This outlying solution could result in blizzard conditions 
over portions of KS, and perhaps as far south as northwestern OK. 
Decided to go somewhere between, which is very similar to what the
Canadian suggests. This would limit any significant impacts 
across our area. The ECMWF solution, obviously, cannot be totally 
ruled out so future consistency and consensus will be watched 
closely over the next several days. Regardless, near the end of 
the forecast period it appears a cold trend is on the way based 
on synoptic pattern agreement of a deep longwave trough developing
over at least the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions also appear 
more likely than not sometime late this weekend into early next 
week with this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  29  52  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         55  28  53  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           52  27  56  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  23  50  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         51  35  54  34 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 5:15 AM CST
Posted on Monday November 19, 2018, 05:15:11

514 
FXUS64 KOUN 191115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will slowly
become northwesterly today, with speeds around 10 to 15 kt. Skies
will generally remain clear.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Stratus continues to shift eastward early this morning and
temperatures have already fallen into the low 20s across
northwestern OK as a result. Expect a frosty sunrise for most
locations. Skies will remain clear throughout the day but
afternoon highs will still remain a few degrees below average,
with weak CAA accompanying a subtle reinforcing cold airmass. 
Another chilly morning is expected Tue under the corresponding 
surface high, especially across northeastern OK. Below average
afternoon max temps are again expected Tue under the surface high
slowly shifting eastward.

A warmup will begin Wed as southerly low level flow returns ahead
of a mid level shortwave trough moving under the ridge over the
Rockies. In addition, this feature still appears it may produce a
few showers across the southwestern zones but certainly do not
expect much QPf with very limited moisture present. Even warmer
conditions will follow through late in the week with a lee low
expected Fri ahead of a deeper shortwave trough moving into the 
Southern Plains. Precipitation chances with this feature appear a 
bit more likely along and east of I-35 after sunrise Friday but 
should quickly shift south during the day as the trough axis does 
the same.

The most significant feature for this forecast will occur during
the extended periods, as a deep Pacific trough digs southeastward
over the central Rockies Sat. The GFS, and most other solutions
including ensembles, are fairly progressive with the trough.
However, the ECMWF paints a different picture this weekend, which
deepens the trough and closes a low somewhere over CO late Sat 
night. This outlying solution could result in blizzard conditions 
over portions of KS, and perhaps as far south as northwestern OK. 
Decided to go somewhere between, which is very similar to what the
Canadian suggests. This would limit any significant impacts 
across our area. The ECMWF solution, obviously, cannot be totally 
ruled out so future consistency and consensus will be watched 
closely over the next several days. Regardless, near the end of 
the forecast period it appears a cold trend is on the way based 
on synoptic pattern agreement of a deep longwave trough developing
over at least the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions also appear 
more likely than not sometime late this weekend into early next 
week with this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  29  52  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         55  28  53  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           52  27  56  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  23  50  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         51  35  54  34 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/03/03