No Warnings, Watches, or Advisories

GTXWXBot[TX]:

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 1:06 PM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 13:06:52

616 
FXUS64 KFWD 151806
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
106 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

No significant concerns expected over the next 24 hours across
North Texas. Southerly winds 10-15 kt and SCT080 skies should
prevail for much of the period. There will again be some low level
moisture that tries to make it into Waco during the early morning
hours on Thursday, but we'll leave any MVFR TEMPO out for now
given the uncertainty in coverage. Otherwise, any convection
across Oklahoma should remain well north of the area airports.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

An MCV left over from the strong to severe thunderstorms across 
Oklahoma last night is trekking east just north of the 
Red River early this morning. Slight chance POPs will be kept 
across the northern counties where a few showers and an isolated 
thunderstorm could occur this morning due to residual mesoscale 
forcing associated with the MCV.

The rest of the day should be rather uneventful as we quickly
shift to a ridge-dominated upper air pattern. A return to typical
summer weather, which has already occurred across the southern 
third of the CWA, will take place across the rest of the area 
today as subsidence from the ridge takes over. High temperatures 
will range from the lower 90s across the northeast to the mid and 
upper 90s elsewhere.

Additional thunderstorms are expected tonight over the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. This convective activity will 
move southeast, but at this time is expected to dissipate before 
reaching the northern counties. Will keep some silent 10 POPs in 
place to account for the possible isolated shower. The rest of the
area will stay warm and muggy with low temperatures in the mid 
and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/
/Thursday through the Middle of Next Week/

Little change is expected in the upper level pattern through 
Friday as a ridge remains intact over West Texas, keeping the area
hot and humid. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will combine with upper
90s high temperatures to create dangerous afternoon heat indices 
from the DFW Metroplex northward to the Red River. This is where 
some of the higher rainfall totals have occurred over the past 
several days, adding enough low level moisture to prevent 
significant diurnal dewpoint swings. Max apparent temperature 
grids are indicating readings near 105 on Wednesday and between 
105 and 110 on Thursday for the above mentioned areas. If this 
trend holds, a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the 
area tomorrow and Friday. Will further assess the situation and 
make a call on the advisory with either the afternoon or the 
Thursday morning package.

The ridge will shift west into the Desert Southwest late Friday
through the weekend, which will knock a few degrees off of the 
Saturday/Sunday afternoon temperatures and leave the northern 
counties open to northwest flow convection. Low-end POPs will be
kept across the north for the late Friday through Sunday time-
frame. The primary concern with any of these storms would be gusty
winds with an outside chance of a damaging wind gust.

The latest guidance continues to indicate a decent shortwave 
dropping southeast through the Plains Sunday night and Monday, 
sending a cold front south into the area early next week. There
still remains uncertainty regarding the strength of the frontal
push. Being that it is August, and the upper trough will move 
fairly quickly off to the east, means that the front will quickly
lose its push as it sags south of the I-20 corridor. Even if this
is the case, the presence of the boundary warrants chance and
slight chance POPs for Monday and Tuesday. If the front continues
to meander, rain chances could linger into the middle part of 
next week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  97  78  99  79 /   5   5   5  10  10 
Waco                77  97  77  99  77 /   0   5   5   5   5 
Paris               75  95  75  95  75 /  10  30  10  30  20 
Denton              77  96  77  98  77 /   5  10   5  10  10 
McKinney            77  96  77  98  76 /   5  20  10  20  10 
Dallas              79  97  80  99  79 /   5   5   5  10  10 
Terrell             77  96  77  97  78 /   5   5   5  10  10 
Corsicana           77  96  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Temple              75  97  75  99  75 /   0   5   0   5   5 
Mineral Wells       74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Waco,TX (CNW) ASOS reports gust of 50 knots (57.5 mph) from S @ 1255Z KCNW 151255Z 17012G50KT 10SM SKC 25/23 A2999
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 08:02:09

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 6:49 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 06:49:14

130 
FXUS64 KFWD 151149 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with south flow of 10-15kts.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms within Oklahoma may impact 
northbound departures and arrivals through Bowie and Bonham, but 
re-establishing ridging aloft should keep the activity far from 
our TAF sites. Mid and high clouds will be primarily convective
debris. With rich boundary layer moisture, the re-emergence of the
August sun will eventually result in some CU.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

An MCV left over from the strong to severe thunderstorms across 
Oklahoma last night is trekking east just north of the 
Red River early this morning. Slight chance POPs will be kept 
across the northern counties where a few showers and an isolated 
thunderstorm could occur this morning due to residual mesoscale 
forcing associated with the MCV.

The rest of the day should be rather uneventful as we quickly
shift to a ridge-dominated upper air pattern. A return to typical
summer weather, which has already occurred across the southern 
third of the CWA, will take place across the rest of the area 
today as subsidence from the ridge takes over. High temperatures 
will range from the lower 90s across the northeast to the mid and 
upper 90s elsewhere.

Additional thunderstorms are expected tonight over the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. This convective activity will 
move southeast, but at this time is expected to dissipate before 
reaching the northern counties. Will keep some silent 10 POPs in 
place to account for the possible isolated shower. The rest of the
area will stay warm and muggy with low temperatures in the mid 
and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/
/Thursday through the Middle of Next Week/

Little change is expected in the upper level pattern through 
Friday as a ridge remains intact over West Texas, keeping the area
hot and humid. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will combine with upper
90s high temperatures to create dangerous afternoon heat indices 
from the DFW Metroplex northward to the Red River. This is where 
some of the higher rainfall totals have occurred over the past 
several days, adding enough low level moisture to prevent 
significant diurnal dewpoint swings. Max apparent temperature 
grids are indicating readings near 105 on Wednesday and between 
105 and 110 on Thursday for the above mentioned areas. If this 
trend holds, a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the 
area tomorrow and Friday. Will further assess the situation and 
make a call on the advisory with either the afternoon or the 
Thursday morning package.

The ridge will shift west into the Desert Southwest late Friday
through the weekend, which will knock a few degrees off of the 
Saturday/Sunday afternoon temperatures and leave the northern 
counties open to northwest flow convection. Low-end POPs will be
kept across the north for the late Friday through Sunday time-
frame. The primary concern with any of these storms would be gusty
winds with an outside chance of a damaging wind gust.

The latest guidance continues to indicate a decent shortwave 
dropping southeast through the Plains Sunday night and Monday, 
sending a cold front south into the area early next week. There
still remains uncertainty regarding the strength of the frontal
push. Being that it is August, and the upper trough will move 
fairly quickly off to the east, means that the front will quickly
lose its push as it sags south of the I-20 corridor. Even if this
is the case, the presence of the boundary warrants chance and
slight chance POPs for Monday and Tuesday. If the front continues
to meander, rain chances could linger into the middle part of 
next week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  78  97  78  99 /  10   5   5   5  10 
Waco                96  77  97  77  99 /  10   0   5   5   5 
Paris               91  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  30  10  30 
Denton              95  77  96  77  98 /  10   5  10   5  10 
McKinney            94  77  96  77  98 /  10   5  20  10  20 
Dallas              96  79  97  80  99 /  10   5   5   5  10 
Terrell             93  77  96  77  97 /  10   5   5   5  10 
Corsicana           95  77  96  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Temple              96  75  97  75  99 /   5   0   5   0   5 
Mineral Wells       95  74  96  75  98 /  10   5   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/30

FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Aug 15, 4:09 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 04:10:10

254 
FLUS44 KFWD 150909
HWOFWD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
409 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160915-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
409 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm may occur this morning along and north of a
line from Bowie to Sulphur Springs. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There will be a low risk for thunderstorms Thursday through the
weekend for areas north of I-20. A few strong to severe storms are 
possible for the counties adjacent to the Red River, with damaging 
wind gusts being the primary threat.

Thunderstorm chances will spread south through the rest of the 
region early next week as a weak cold front pushes south through the 
area. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but a few strong 
storms with gusty winds may occur.

Heat index values will be between 103 and 106 Thursday, and between
105 and 109 Friday, for areas roughly along and north of a line from
Fort Worth to Canton. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 3:44 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 03:44:16

226 
FXUS64 KFWD 150844
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

An MCV left over from the strong to severe thunderstorms across 
Oklahoma last night is trekking east just north of the 
Red River early this morning. Slight chance POPs will be kept 
across the northern counties where a few showers and an isolated 
thunderstorm could occur this morning due to residual mesoscale 
forcing associated with the MCV.

The rest of the day should be rather uneventful as we quickly
shift to a ridge-dominated upper air pattern. A return to typical
summer weather, which has already occurred across the southern 
third of the CWA, will take place across the rest of the area 
today as subsidence from the ridge takes over. High temperatures 
will range from the lower 90s across the northeast to the mid and 
upper 90s elsewhere.

Additional thunderstorms are expected tonight over the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. This convective activity will 
move southeast, but at this time is expected to dissipate before 
reaching the northern counties. Will keep some silent 10 POPs in 
place to account for the possible isolated shower. The rest of the
area will stay warm and muggy with low temperatures in the mid 
and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday through the Middle of Next Week/

Little change is expected in the upper level pattern through 
Friday as a ridge remains intact over West Texas, keeping the area
hot and humid. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will combine with upper
90s high temperatures to create dangerous afternoon heat indices 
from the DFW Metroplex northward to the Red River. This is where 
some of the higher rainfall totals have occurred over the past 
several days, adding enough low level moisture to prevent 
significant diurnal dewpoint swings. Max apparent temperature 
grids are indicating readings near 105 on Wednesday and between 
105 and 110 on Thursday for the above mentioned areas. If this 
trend holds, a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the 
area tomorrow and Friday. Will further assess the situation and 
make a call on the advisory with either the afternoon or the 
Thursday morning package.

The ridge will shift west into the Desert Southwest late Friday
through the weekend, which will knock a few degrees off of the 
Saturday/Sunday afternoon temperatures and leave the northern 
counties open to northwest flow convection. Low-end POPs will be
kept across the north for the late Friday through Sunday time-
frame. The primary concern with any of these storms would be gusty
winds with an outside chance of a damaging wind gust.

The latest guidance continues to indicate a decent shortwave 
dropping southeast through the Plains Sunday night and Monday, 
sending a cold front south into the area early next week. There
still remains uncertainty regarding the strength of the frontal
push. Being that it is August, and the upper trough will move 
fairly quickly off to the east, means that the front will quickly
lose its push as it sags south of the I-20 corridor. Even if this
is the case, the presence of the boundary warrants chance and
slight chance POPs for Monday and Tuesday. If the front continues
to meander, rain chances could linger into the middle part of 
next week.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1127 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/06z TAFs/

No significant changes were made from the previous TAF issuance 
with predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
The one exception may be at Waco tomorrow morning when a few 
fingers of BKN MVFR stratus may encroach on the airport from the 
south. Will maintain a brief Tempo group to account for this 
potential.

Otherwise, ongoing convection in Oklahoma (which has developed a
MCV) will progress to the east/southeast while continuing a 
weakening trend. While no impacts are expected at the terminals, 
traffic at the Bonham cornerpost may be affected late tonight or
early Wednesday morning as additional convection occurs through 
portions of southeast OK near the Red River. VFR conditions and 
south winds of 10-15 kts will prevail for the remainder of the 
TAF period. 

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  98  79  99 /  10   5  10   5  20 
Waco                95  76  98  77  99 /  10   5   5   5  10 
Paris               90  74  95  76  93 /  20  20  20  10  30 
Denton              95  77  98  76  97 /  10   5  10  10  20 
McKinney            94  76  96  77  98 /  10   5  10  10  20 
Dallas              96  79  98  80  99 /  10   5  10   5  20 
Terrell             91  77  96  77  97 /  10   5  10   5  20 
Corsicana           92  76  97  77  98 /   5   5  10   5  10 
Temple              96  75  98  76  98 /   5   5   5   5  10 
Mineral Wells       97  74  97  76  98 /  10   5   5   5  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/25

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 15, 7:30z for portions of FWD
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 02:31:13

150 
WUUS03 KWNS 150731
PTSDY3

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

VALID TIME 171200Z - 181200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... ANY SEVERE ...

0.05   35128199 34218334 33808500 33398900 33389269 33419591
       33579842 34469940 35399894 35729794 36139298 36328939
       36678635 37018432 37398208 36458154 35128199
0.05   38457429 37707753 38427868 42587565 44187321 44197105
       43556812
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... CATEGORICAL ...

MRGL   35769768 36049385 36299008 36608707 37058417 37418216
       36538160 35068205 34188335 33718569 33428895 33389261
       33419608 33549846 34499936 35369898 35769768
MRGL   38457439 37677740 38437872 42437568 44097355 44237126
       43556812
TSTM   29931357 31951261 33161231 34251318 37141457 39981537
       42811768 44991790 47111662 48671661 50771741 99999999
       50521156 48070992 45920779 45310661 44360425 43080367
       40390171 37850011 37639806 39889556 40639341 41459049
       42948855 43518674 43608527 43718342 44358155 45557986
       46797790 99999999 46287174 44326688 99999999 27939588
       28749656 29719667 30989585 31819607 32619748 32749927
       32810075 32870279 32010407 30800382 29860399 29310455
       28580518

&&
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
OKC 20 E FYV 40 SSE POF 20 E CKV LOZ 55 W BLF 45 E TRI 10 NNW SPA 15
N AHN 15 NE ANB 30 WSW CBM 15 NE ELD 40 WSW PRX 30 S SPS 10 SSW LTS
15 E CSM 25 N OKC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
SBY 15 NNW RIC 15 NE SHD 20 NE BGM 35 SW BTV MWN 65 SSE BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 200 SSE YUM 70 S GBN
25 SW PHX 50 WSW PRC 35 S P38 45 NE P68 20 NNE REO 10 NNW BKE 35 NE
PUW 85 NNE GEG 185 NNE OMK ...CONT... 135 NNE CTB 35 SSW HVR 35 ENE
BIL 40 NNE SHR 65 WNW RAP 35 WNW CDR 10 SSW IML 10 NW DDC 30 SSW HUT
15 S FNB 25 E LWD MLI 35 W MKE 35 NW MKG 50 NNE GRR 20 WSW BAX 80
ENE BAX 185 ENE APN 195 NW MSS ...CONT... 100 NNE EFK 40 S EPM
...CONT... 60 SSE PSX 20 W PSX 60 NNE VCT 30 NW UTS 25 SE CRS 15 SSW
FTW 35 NE ABI 60 NE BGS 30 ENE HOB 25 SSE CNM 30 NNE MRF 35 S MRF 80
SSW MRF 140 SSW MRF.

WACO Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 99 Low: 76 Precip: 0.0 Snow: M
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 02:16:31

236 
CDUS44 KFWD 150716
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
216 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         99    408 PM 108    1969  97      2       97       
  MINIMUM         76    559 AM  60    1967  74      2       78       
  AVERAGE         88                        86      2       88      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          3.05 1991   0.06  -0.06     0.14    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.55                      0.84  -0.29     1.94    
  SINCE JUN 1      1.22                      6.06  -4.84     8.77    
  SINCE JAN 1      9.59                     20.95 -11.36    28.08    
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       23                        21      2       23       
  MONTH TO DATE  294                       294      0      276       
  SINCE JUN 1   1730                      1408    322     1454       
  SINCE JAN 1   2298                      1860    438     2023       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    22   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (180)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    30   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (190)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    15.0                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    82           500 AM                                     
 LOWEST     33           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    58                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       105      2011                    
                                             1956                    
                                             1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   74        66      1939                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   654 AM CDT   SUNSET   812 PM CDT   
AUGUST 16 2018........SUNRISE   655 AM CDT   SUNSET   811 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

DALLAS FORT WORTH Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 90 Low: 74 Precip: 0.08 Snow: M
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 02:16:31

235 
CDUS44 KFWD 150716
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
216 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         90    213 PM 106    2012  97     -7       93       
                                      1911                          
  MINIMUM         74    537 AM  62    1967  76     -2       74       
  AVERAGE         82                        86     -4       84      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.08          2.63 1971   0.05   0.03     0.62    
  MONTH TO DATE    2.90                      0.76   2.14     3.21    
  SINCE JUN 1      4.42                      6.71  -2.29    15.77    
  SINCE JAN 1     22.12                     22.96  -0.84    27.63    
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       17                        21     -4       19       
  MONTH TO DATE  259                       294    -35      284       
  SINCE JUN 1   1633                      1416    217     1493       
  SINCE JAN 1   2224                      1838    386     2175       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    20   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    24   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    10.0                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  LIGHT RAIN                                                         
  FOG                                                                

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    88           900 AM                                     
 LOWEST     50           200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    69                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       107      1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   76        64      1955                    
                                             1920                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   651 AM CDT   SUNSET   813 PM CDT   
AUGUST 16 2018........SUNRISE   652 AM CDT   SUNSET   812 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

DALLAS FORT WORTH Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 90 Low: 74 Precip: 0.08 Snow: M
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 01:47:01

414 
CDUS44 KFWD 150646
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
146 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         90    213 PM 106    2012  97     -7       93       
                                      1911                          
  MINIMUM         74    537 AM  62    1967  76     -2       74       
  AVERAGE         82                        86     -4       84      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.08          2.63 1971   0.05   0.03     0.62    
  MONTH TO DATE    2.90                      0.76   2.14     3.21    
  SINCE JUN 1      4.42                      6.71  -2.29    15.77    
  SINCE JAN 1     22.12                     22.96  -0.84    27.63    
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       17                        21     -4       19       
  MONTH TO DATE  259                       294    -35      284       
  SINCE JUN 1   1633                      1416    217     1493       
  SINCE JAN 1   2224                      1838    386     2175       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    20   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    24   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    10.0                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  LIGHT RAIN                                                         
  FOG                                                                

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    88           900 AM                                     
 LOWEST     50           200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    69                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       107      1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   76        64      1955                    
                                             1920                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   651 AM CDT   SUNSET   813 PM CDT   
AUGUST 16 2018........SUNRISE   652 AM CDT   SUNSET   812 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

WACO Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 99 Low: 76 Precip: Trace Snow: M
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 01:47:01

413 
CDUS44 KFWD 150646
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
146 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         99    408 PM 108    1969  97      2       97       
  MINIMUM         76    559 AM  60    1967  74      2       78       
  AVERAGE         88                        86      2       88      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        T             3.05 1991   0.06  -0.06     0.14    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.55                      0.84  -0.29     1.94    
  SINCE JUN 1      1.22                      6.06  -4.84     8.77    
  SINCE JAN 1      9.59                     20.95 -11.36    28.08    
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       23                        21      2       23       
  MONTH TO DATE  294                       294      0      276       
  SINCE JUN 1   1730                      1408    322     1454       
  SINCE JAN 1   2298                      1860    438     2023       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    22   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (180)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    30   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (190)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    15.0                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  LIGHT RAIN                                                         

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    82           500 AM                                     
 LOWEST     33           400 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    58                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       105      2011                    
                                             1956                    
                                             1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   74        66      1939                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   654 AM CDT   SUNSET   812 PM CDT   
AUGUST 16 2018........SUNRISE   655 AM CDT   SUNSET   811 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 11:27 PM CDT
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 23:27:44

576 
FXUS64 KFWD 150427
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1127 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018


.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

No significant changes were made from the previous TAF issuance 
with predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
The one exception may be at Waco tomorrow morning when a few 
fingers of BKN MVFR stratus may encroach on the airport from the 
south. Will maintain a brief Tempo group to account for this 
potential.

Otherwise, ongoing convection in Oklahoma (which has developed a
MCV) will progress to the east/southeast while continuing a 
weakening trend. While no impacts are expected at the terminals, 
traffic at the Bonham cornerpost may be affected late tonight or
early Wednesday morning as additional convection occurs through 
portions of southeast OK near the Red River. VFR conditions and 
south winds of 10-15 kts will prevail for the remainder of the 
TAF period. 

-Stalley

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
Only minor adjustments to the forecast were necessary this 
evening to account for temperature/sky trends. Precipitation has 
completely exited the area to the northeast, along with the upper
low which brought us our several days of rainfall and slightly 
cooler weather. While the upper low is now centered near Kansas 
City, the elongated trough axis is still draped to the southwest 
through western OK and the TX Panhandle. This has contributed to 
numerous severe thunderstorms developing in Central Oklahoma this
evening.

The ongoing storms in Oklahoma really are the main focus through 
the short term, as it's possible they encroach on the Red River 
very late tonight. While I've been unable to locate a single CAM 
that hints at this possibility, due northerly Corfidi vectors of 
20 kts and strong WAA fields in the 925-700mb layer would suggest 
there is a potential for a congealed convective cluster to make a 
dive southward during the overnight hours. Recent objective 
analysis indicates around 1500 MUCAPE is still available across 
southern Oklahoma which a complex could ingest while fueled by 
convergence at the nose of a 30 kt low level jet. Overall, it 
seems the chance of convection reaching North Texas prior to 
dissipating is relatively low, but not low enough to remove the 
20-30% PoPs in place for our Red River counties prior to daybreak.
Will continue to monitor hourly short-term guidance for possible 
southward trends in model solutions.

-Stalley

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over the Plains quickly
pulling away to the northeast. A persistent band of strong isentropic
ascent extending from the Metroplex northeast is slowly lifting 
away with precipitation coverage on a downward trend. For the
remainder of this afternoon and evening, there will still be weak
ascent associated with the larger trough spreading through North
Texas, so at least isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
will remain possible. We'll hang on to 20% PoPs mainly along and
north of I-20 through the early evening hours.

Later tonight, low level flow will veer to the southwest with a
fairly decent band of convergence setting up across Oklahoma
during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing to our north, but strong low level warm advection will
extend all the way down into the Red River counties. Despite some
drying expected to occur, there may be sufficient forcing for a
few showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours
across our northern counties. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

After an extended period of high rain chances across North and 
Central Texas, it appears that most of the region will get a 
respite from the rain/storms. Areas near and north of I-20, 
however, will still have the potential for convection through the
weekend as we transition to northwest flow aloft. Temperatures 
will trend back towards seasonal values for areas that have seen 
rain over the past couple of days and heat index values will climb
above 100 degrees.

Mild conditions will be the theme to start Wednesday morning as 
low level flow will be unseasonably strong. RAP and NAM 925mb 
wind progs advertise nearly 40 knots of low level flow 
overspreading much of the area. While limited to some degree due 
to the onset of nightfall, mixing should help temperatures stay in
the mid to upper 70s and this should diminish an appreciable fog 
threat---outside of low-lying/sheltered areas. The more noteworthy
impact that the winds may have is for the sustenance of 
convective cells to the south of the Red River. Higher resolution 
NWP does not show much in the way of rain/storms, but given the 
strong wind field and subsequent isentropic ascent, a 20 PoP as 
far south as the Highway 380 corridor seems warranted. Rain 
chances should wane some through the day, though I'll keep low 
PoPs along the Red River in the event that outflow lingers late 
into the afternoon and becomes a focus for renewed convection. Hot
conditions will be the next story on Wednesday as a weak frontal 
boundary will attempt to sag southward towards the Red River. Most
guidance keeps the front north of the Red River, but the position
of the boundary will need to be monitored. Surface winds 
preceding the front Wednesday afternoon should veer slightly to 
the southwest, which may help promote greater temperatures. The 
recent rains should help to keep temperatures from soaring too 
high, but it'll likely feel quite humid outside with the mid- 
August sun and plenty of water for evapotranspiration. High 
temperatures areawide should climb into the mid to upper 90s with 
heat index values up to 105 degrees in some spots.

Thursday morning should feature slightly weaker flow...but 
interestingly enough...lapse rates---per the NAM---are a tad 
steeper. Large scale lift from any synoptic scale feature is 
pretty indiscernible right now, but there may be some slight 
isentropic upglide along the Red River. While large scale 
synoptic forcing looks subtle, decent lapse rates and a little 
moisture can still result in some precipitation. Probabilistic 
guidance from both the EPS and GEFS do not offer much in terms of 
accumulated QPF along the Red River on Thursday morning and into 
the afternoon, so I'll place a silent 15 PoP across the Red River
Valley. Surface winds turn more to the southwest on Thursday which
should promote another hot day. Temperatures will climb a little
higher than Wednesday and with plenty of rain the past few
days...there should be plenty of evapotranspiration to result in
humid conditions. The warmer conditions equates to heat index
values closer to 105 degrees on Thursday.

Northwest flow aloft becomes a bit more established through the
day on Friday and both NAM and GFS guidance suggest that a compact
shortwave trough will dive southeastward and graze the Red River
zones. Given that this feature is forecast to move through during
the late morning to early afternoon hours on Friday, I'll show a
slight chance for rain/storms a bit farther south. Forecast
soundings in the afternoon indicate that the boundary layer may
become pretty hot and well mixed...supporting a risk for strong
downburst winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be close to seasonal
values for mid-August. Heat index values will also be close to 105
degrees and if this appears likely...a small Heat Advisory may be
needed for portions of North Texas.

Saturday will feature low rain chances during the morning hours 
before some slight mid-level height rises overspread from the 
west. Mid and upper level clouds may continue invade from the 
north which may help keep temperatures a few degrees lower. 
Subsequently, heat index values are not forecast to be quite as 
high during this time...with values just below 105 degrees. For 
Sunday and beyond, rain chances will ramp back up as a decent 
trough begins to take shape to the north and west. The best rain 
chances will be initially along the Red River and across the Big 
Country. There is pretty decent agreement between the 
deterministic GFS and ECMWF in plowing a front through most of the
area early next week. The ECMWF is a lot more aggressive and 
blasts the front all the way towards the upper TX coast while the 
GFS slowly brings the front back to the north a little sooner. 
Regardless of the solution, it looks like there will be another 
period of below normal temperatures and rainfall for a good 
portion of the area. 

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  78  98  79 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Waco                76  95  76  98  77 /   5  10   5   5   5 
Paris               74  90  74  95  76 /  20  20  20  20  10 
Denton              75  95  77  98  76 /  20  10   5  10  10 
McKinney            75  94  76  96  77 /  20  10   5  10  10 
Dallas              77  96  79  98  80 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Terrell             76  91  77  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Corsicana           76  92  76  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5 
Temple              75  96  75  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Mineral Wells       73  97  74  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/82

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 8:56 PM CDT
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 20:56:27

246 
FXUS64 KFWD 150156
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
856 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018


.UPDATE...
Only minor adjustments to the forecast were necessary this 
evening to account for temperature/sky trends. Precipitation has 
completely exited the area to the northeast, along with the upper
low which brought us our several days of rainfall and slightly 
cooler weather. While the upper low is now centered near Kansas 
City, the elongated trough axis is still draped to the southwest 
through western OK and the TX Panhandle. This has contributed to 
numerous severe thunderstorms developing in Central Oklahoma this
evening.

The ongoing storms in Oklahoma really are the main focus through 
the short term, as it's possible they encroach on the Red River 
very late tonight. While I've been unable to locate a single CAM 
that hints at this possibility, due northerly Corfidi vectors of 
20 kts and strong WAA fields in the 925-700mb layer would suggest 
there is a potential for a congealed convective cluster to make a 
dive southward during the overnight hours. Recent objective 
analysis indicates around 1500 MUCAPE is still available across 
southern Oklahoma which a complex could ingest while fueled by 
convergence at the nose of a 30 kt low level jet. Overall, it 
seems the chance of convection reaching North Texas prior to 
dissipating is relatively low, but not low enough to remove the 
20-30% PoPs in place for our Red River counties prior to daybreak.
Will continue to monitor hourly short-term guidance for possible 
southward trends in model solutions.

-Stalley

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 636 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/00z TAFs/

Lingering rain showers have all exited the DFW area as a band of 
mid-level moisture accompanies an upper low northeastward. The 
upper trough axis remains to our west, however, and is aiding in 
the ignition of storms across Central Oklahoma this evening. While
some of this activity may drift towards the Red River late 
tonight or early tomorrow morning, it will remain well north of 
the DFW area TAF sites. The entire TAF period will consist of dry 
conditions with predominantly VFR cigs. However, a few hours of 
MVFR cigs around 2500 ft may materialize at Waco around daybreak 
tomorrow morning. Prevailing south winds around 10-15 kts will 
continue through Wednesday with SCT diurnal cumulus. 

-Stalley

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over the Plains quickly
pulling away to the northeast. A persistent band of strong isentropic
ascent extending from the Metroplex northeast is slowly lifting 
away with precipitation coverage on a downward trend. For the
remainder of this afternoon and evening, there will still be weak
ascent associated with the larger trough spreading through North
Texas, so at least isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
will remain possible. We'll hang on to 20% PoPs mainly along and
north of I-20 through the early evening hours.

Later tonight, low level flow will veer to the southwest with a
fairly decent band of convergence setting up across Oklahoma
during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing to our north, but strong low level warm advection will
extend all the way down into the Red River counties. Despite some
drying expected to occur, there may be sufficient forcing for a
few showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours
across our northern counties. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

After an extended period of high rain chances across North and 
Central Texas, it appears that most of the region will get a 
respite from the rain/storms. Areas near and north of I-20, 
however, will still have the potential for convection through the
weekend as we transition to northwest flow aloft. Temperatures 
will trend back towards seasonal values for areas that have seen 
rain over the past couple of days and heat index values will climb
above 100 degrees.

Mild conditions will be the theme to start Wednesday morning as 
low level flow will be unseasonably strong. RAP and NAM 925mb 
wind progs advertise nearly 40 knots of low level flow 
overspreading much of the area. While limited to some degree due 
to the onset of nightfall, mixing should help temperatures stay in
the mid to upper 70s and this should diminish an appreciable fog 
threat---outside of low-lying/sheltered areas. The more noteworthy
impact that the winds may have is for the sustenance of 
convective cells to the south of the Red River. Higher resolution 
NWP does not show much in the way of rain/storms, but given the 
strong wind field and subsequent isentropic ascent, a 20 PoP as 
far south as the Highway 380 corridor seems warranted. Rain 
chances should wane some through the day, though I'll keep low 
PoPs along the Red River in the event that outflow lingers late 
into the afternoon and becomes a focus for renewed convection. Hot
conditions will be the next story on Wednesday as a weak frontal 
boundary will attempt to sag southward towards the Red River. Most
guidance keeps the front north of the Red River, but the position
of the boundary will need to be monitored. Surface winds 
preceding the front Wednesday afternoon should veer slightly to 
the southwest, which may help promote greater temperatures. The 
recent rains should help to keep temperatures from soaring too 
high, but it'll likely feel quite humid outside with the mid- 
August sun and plenty of water for evapotranspiration. High 
temperatures areawide should climb into the mid to upper 90s with 
heat index values up to 105 degrees in some spots.

Thursday morning should feature slightly weaker flow...but 
interestingly enough...lapse rates---per the NAM---are a tad 
steeper. Large scale lift from any synoptic scale feature is 
pretty indiscernible right now, but there may be some slight 
isentropic upglide along the Red River. While large scale 
synoptic forcing looks subtle, decent lapse rates and a little 
moisture can still result in some precipitation. Probabilistic 
guidance from both the EPS and GEFS do not offer much in terms of 
accumulated QPF along the Red River on Thursday morning and into 
the afternoon, so I'll place a silent 15 PoP across the Red River
Valley. Surface winds turn more to the southwest on Thursday which
should promote another hot day. Temperatures will climb a little
higher than Wednesday and with plenty of rain the past few
days...there should be plenty of evapotranspiration to result in
humid conditions. The warmer conditions equates to heat index
values closer to 105 degrees on Thursday.

Northwest flow aloft becomes a bit more established through the
day on Friday and both NAM and GFS guidance suggest that a compact
shortwave trough will dive southeastward and graze the Red River
zones. Given that this feature is forecast to move through during
the late morning to early afternoon hours on Friday, I'll show a
slight chance for rain/storms a bit farther south. Forecast
soundings in the afternoon indicate that the boundary layer may
become pretty hot and well mixed...supporting a risk for strong
downburst winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be close to seasonal
values for mid-August. Heat index values will also be close to 105
degrees and if this appears likely...a small Heat Advisory may be
needed for portions of North Texas.

Saturday will feature low rain chances during the morning hours 
before some slight mid-level height rises overspread from the 
west. Mid and upper level clouds may continue invade from the 
north which may help keep temperatures a few degrees lower. 
Subsequently, heat index values are not forecast to be quite as 
high during this time...with values just below 105 degrees. For 
Sunday and beyond, rain chances will ramp back up as a decent 
trough begins to take shape to the north and west. The best rain 
chances will be initially along the Red River and across the Big 
Country. There is pretty decent agreement between the 
deterministic GFS and ECMWF in plowing a front through most of the
area early next week. The ECMWF is a lot more aggressive and 
blasts the front all the way towards the upper TX coast while the 
GFS slowly brings the front back to the north a little sooner. 
Regardless of the solution, it looks like there will be another 
period of below normal temperatures and rainfall for a good 
portion of the area. 

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  78  98  79 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Waco                76  95  76  98  77 /   5  10   5   5   5 
Paris               74  90  74  95  76 /  20  20  20  20  10 
Denton              75  95  77  98  76 /  20  10   5  10  10 
McKinney            75  94  76  96  77 /  20  10   5  10  10 
Dallas              77  96  79  98  80 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Terrell             76  91  77  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Corsicana           76  92  76  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5 
Temple              75  96  75  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Mineral Wells       73  97  74  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/82

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 6:36 PM CDT
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 18:36:28

496 
FXUS64 KFWD 142336
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018


.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Lingering rain showers have all exited the DFW area as a band of 
mid-level moisture accompanies an upper low northeastward. The 
upper trough axis remains to our west, however, and is aiding in 
the ignition of storms across Central Oklahoma this evening. While
some of this activity may drift towards the Red River late 
tonight or early tomorrow morning, it will remain well north of 
the DFW area TAF sites. The entire TAF period will consist of dry 
conditions with predominantly VFR cigs. However, a few hours of 
MVFR cigs around 2500 ft may materialize at Waco around daybreak 
tomorrow morning. Prevailing south winds around 10-15 kts will 
continue through Wednesday with SCT diurnal cumulus. 

-Stalley

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over the Plains quickly
pulling away to the northeast. A persistent band of strong isentropic
ascent extending from the Metroplex northeast is slowly lifting 
away with precipitation coverage on a downward trend. For the
remainder of this afternoon and evening, there will still be weak
ascent associated with the larger trough spreading through North
Texas, so at least isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
will remain possible. We'll hang on to 20% PoPs mainly along and
north of I-20 through the early evening hours.

Later tonight, low level flow will veer to the southwest with a
fairly decent band of convergence setting up across Oklahoma
during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing to our north, but strong low level warm advection will
extend all the way down into the Red River counties. Despite some
drying expected to occur, there may be sufficient forcing for a
few showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours
across our northern counties. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

After an extended period of high rain chances across North and 
Central Texas, it appears that most of the region will get a 
respite from the rain/storms. Areas near and north of I-20, 
however, will still have the potential for convection through the
weekend as we transition to northwest flow aloft. Temperatures 
will trend back towards seasonal values for areas that have seen 
rain over the past couple of days and heat index values will climb
above 100 degrees.

Mild conditions will be the theme to start Wednesday morning as 
low level flow will be unseasonably strong. RAP and NAM 925mb 
wind progs advertise nearly 40 knots of low level flow 
overspreading much of the area. While limited to some degree due 
to the onset of nightfall, mixing should help temperatures stay in
the mid to upper 70s and this should diminish an appreciable fog 
threat---outside of low-lying/sheltered areas. The more noteworthy
impact that the winds may have is for the sustenance of 
convective cells to the south of the Red River. Higher resolution 
NWP does not show much in the way of rain/storms, but given the 
strong wind field and subsequent isentropic ascent, a 20 PoP as 
far south as the Highway 380 corridor seems warranted. Rain 
chances should wane some through the day, though I'll keep low 
PoPs along the Red River in the event that outflow lingers late 
into the afternoon and becomes a focus for renewed convection. Hot
conditions will be the next story on Wednesday as a weak frontal 
boundary will attempt to sag southward towards the Red River. Most
guidance keeps the front north of the Red River, but the position
of the boundary will need to be monitored. Surface winds 
preceding the front Wednesday afternoon should veer slightly to 
the southwest, which may help promote greater temperatures. The 
recent rains should help to keep temperatures from soaring too 
high, but it'll likely feel quite humid outside with the mid- 
August sun and plenty of water for evapotranspiration. High 
temperatures areawide should climb into the mid to upper 90s with 
heat index values up to 105 degrees in some spots.

Thursday morning should feature slightly weaker flow...but 
interestingly enough...lapse rates---per the NAM---are a tad 
steeper. Large scale lift from any synoptic scale feature is 
pretty indiscernible right now, but there may be some slight 
isentropic upglide along the Red River. While large scale 
synoptic forcing looks subtle, decent lapse rates and a little 
moisture can still result in some precipitation. Probabilistic 
guidance from both the EPS and GEFS do not offer much in terms of 
accumulated QPF along the Red River on Thursday morning and into 
the afternoon, so I'll place a silent 15 PoP across the Red River
Valley. Surface winds turn more to the southwest on Thursday which
should promote another hot day. Temperatures will climb a little
higher than Wednesday and with plenty of rain the past few
days...there should be plenty of evapotranspiration to result in
humid conditions. The warmer conditions equates to heat index
values closer to 105 degrees on Thursday.

Northwest flow aloft becomes a bit more established through the
day on Friday and both NAM and GFS guidance suggest that a compact
shortwave trough will dive southeastward and graze the Red River
zones. Given that this feature is forecast to move through during
the late morning to early afternoon hours on Friday, I'll show a
slight chance for rain/storms a bit farther south. Forecast
soundings in the afternoon indicate that the boundary layer may
become pretty hot and well mixed...supporting a risk for strong
downburst winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be close to seasonal
values for mid-August. Heat index values will also be close to 105
degrees and if this appears likely...a small Heat Advisory may be
needed for portions of North Texas.

Saturday will feature low rain chances during the morning hours 
before some slight mid-level height rises overspread from the 
west. Mid and upper level clouds may continue invade from the 
north which may help keep temperatures a few degrees lower. 
Subsequently, heat index values are not forecast to be quite as 
high during this time...with values just below 105 degrees. For 
Sunday and beyond, rain chances will ramp back up as a decent 
trough begins to take shape to the north and west. The best rain 
chances will be initially along the Red River and across the Big 
Country. There is pretty decent agreement between the 
deterministic GFS and ECMWF in plowing a front through most of the
area early next week. The ECMWF is a lot more aggressive and 
blasts the front all the way towards the upper TX coast while the 
GFS slowly brings the front back to the north a little sooner. 
Regardless of the solution, it looks like there will be another 
period of below normal temperatures and rainfall for a good 
portion of the area. 

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  78  98  79 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Waco                76  95  76  98  77 /   5  10   5   5   5 
Paris               74  90  74  95  76 /  20  20  20  20  10 
Denton              75  95  77  98  76 /  20  10   5  10  10 
McKinney            75  94  76  96  77 /  20  10   5  10  10 
Dallas              77  96  79  98  80 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Terrell             76  91  77  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Corsicana           76  92  76  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5 
Temple              75  96  75  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Mineral Wells       73  97  74  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/82

WACO Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 99 Low: 76 Precip: Trace Snow: M
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 17:16:04

529 
CDUS44 KFWD 142215
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
515 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...
VALID AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         99    327 PM 108    1969  97      2       97       
  MINIMUM         76    559 AM  60    1967  74      2       78       
  AVERAGE         88                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            T             3.05 1991   0.06  -0.06     0.14    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.55                      0.84  -0.29     1.94    
  SINCE JUN 1      1.22                      6.06  -4.84     8.77    
  SINCE JAN 1      9.59                     20.95 -11.36    28.08    
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    22   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (180)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    30   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (190)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    15.3                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       105      2011                    
                                             1956                    
                                             1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   74        66      1939                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 14 2018........SUNRISE   653 AM CDT   SUNSET   813 PM CDT   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   654 AM CDT   SUNSET   812 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

DALLAS FORT WORTH Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 90 Low: 74 Precip: 0.08 Snow: M
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 16:22:51

738 
CDUS44 KFWD 142122
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         90    213 PM 106    2012  97     -7       93       
                                      1911                          
  MINIMUM         74    537 AM  62    1967  76     -2       74       
  AVERAGE         82                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.08          2.63 1971   0.05   0.03     0.62    
  MONTH TO DATE    2.90                      0.76   2.14     3.21    
  SINCE JUN 1      4.42                      6.71  -2.29    15.77    
  SINCE JAN 1     22.12                     22.96  -0.84    27.63    
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    20   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    24   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     8.9                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       107      1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   76        64      1955                    
                                             1920                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 14 2018........SUNRISE   651 AM CDT   SUNSET   814 PM CDT   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   651 AM CDT   SUNSET   813 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

WACO Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 96 Low: 76 Precip: Trace Snow: M
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 16:22:51

737 
CDUS44 KFWD 142122
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    259 PM 108    1969  97     -1       97       
  MINIMUM         76    559 AM  60    1967  74      2       78       
  AVERAGE         86                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            T             3.05 1991   0.06  -0.06     0.14    
  MONTH TO DATE    0.55                      0.84  -0.29     1.94    
  SINCE JUN 1      1.22                      6.06  -4.84     8.77    
  SINCE JAN 1      9.59                     20.95 -11.36    28.08    
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    22   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (180)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    30   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (190)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    15.1                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       105      2011                    
                                             1956                    
                                             1951                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   74        66      1939                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 14 2018........SUNRISE   653 AM CDT   SUNSET   813 PM CDT   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   654 AM CDT   SUNSET   812 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 3:57 PM CDT
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 15:57:35

252 
FXUS64 KFWD 142057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
357 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tonight/

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over the Plains quickly
pulling away to the northeast. A persistent band of strong isentropic
ascent extending from the Metroplex northeast is slowly lifting 
away with precipitation coverage on a downward trend. For the
remainder of this afternoon and evening, there will still be weak
ascent associated with the larger trough spreading through North
Texas, so at least isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
will remain possible. We'll hang on to 20% PoPs mainly along and
north of I-20 through the early evening hours.

Later tonight, low level flow will veer to the southwest with a
fairly decent band of convergence setting up across Oklahoma
during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing to our north, but strong low level warm advection will
extend all the way down into the Red River counties. Despite some
drying expected to occur, there may be sufficient forcing for a
few showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours
across our northern counties. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid 70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

After an extended period of high rain chances across North and 
Central Texas, it appears that most of the region will get a 
respite from the rain/storms. Areas near and north of I-20, 
however, will still have the potential for convection through the
weekend as we transition to northwest flow aloft. Temperatures 
will trend back towards seasonal values for areas that have seen 
rain over the past couple of days and heat index values will climb
above 100 degrees.

Mild conditions will be the theme to start Wednesday morning as 
low level flow will be unseasonably strong. RAP and NAM 925mb 
wind progs advertise nearly 40 knots of low level flow 
overspreading much of the area. While limited to some degree due 
to the onset of nightfall, mixing should help temperatures stay in
the mid to upper 70s and this should diminish an appreciable fog 
threat---outside of low-lying/sheltered areas. The more noteworthy
impact that the winds may have is for the sustenance of 
convective cells to the south of the Red River. Higher resolution 
NWP does not show much in the way of rain/storms, but given the 
strong wind field and subsequent isentropic ascent, a 20 PoP as 
far south as the Highway 380 corridor seems warranted. Rain 
chances should wane some through the day, though I'll keep low 
PoPs along the Red River in the event that outflow lingers late 
into the afternoon and becomes a focus for renewed convection. Hot
conditions will be the next story on Wednesday as a weak frontal 
boundary will attempt to sag southward towards the Red River. Most
guidance keeps the front north of the Red River, but the position
of the boundary will need to be monitored. Surface winds 
preceding the front Wednesday afternoon should veer slightly to 
the southwest, which may help promote greater temperatures. The 
recent rains should help to keep temperatures from soaring too 
high, but it'll likely feel quite humid outside with the mid- 
August sun and plenty of water for evapotranspiration. High 
temperatures areawide should climb into the mid to upper 90s with 
heat index values up to 105 degrees in some spots.

Thursday morning should feature slightly weaker flow...but 
interestingly enough...lapse rates---per the NAM---are a tad 
steeper. Large scale lift from any synoptic scale feature is 
pretty indiscernible right now, but there may be some slight 
isentropic upglide along the Red River. While large scale 
synoptic forcing looks subtle, decent lapse rates and a little 
moisture can still result in some precipitation. Probabilistic 
guidance from both the EPS and GEFS do not offer much in terms of 
accumulated QPF along the Red River on Thursday morning and into 
the afternoon, so I'll place a silent 15 PoP across the Red River
Valley. Surface winds turn more to the southwest on Thursday which
should promote another hot day. Temperatures will climb a little
higher than Wednesday and with plenty of rain the past few
days...there should be plenty of evapotranspiration to result in
humid conditions. The warmer conditions equates to heat index
values closer to 105 degrees on Thursday.

Northwest flow aloft becomes a bit more established through the
day on Friday and both NAM and GFS guidance suggest that a compact
shortwave trough will dive southeastward and graze the Red River
zones. Given that this feature is forecast to move through during
the late morning to early afternoon hours on Friday, I'll show a
slight chance for rain/storms a bit farther south. Forecast
soundings in the afternoon indicate that the boundary layer may
become pretty hot and well mixed...supporting a risk for strong
downburst winds. Otherwise, temperatures will be close to seasonal
values for mid-August. Heat index values will also be close to 105
degrees and if this appears likely...a small Heat Advisory may be
needed for portions of North Texas.

Saturday will feature low rain chances during the morning hours 
before some slight mid-level height rises overspread from the 
west. Mid and upper level clouds may continue invade from the 
north which may help keep temperatures a few degrees lower. 
Subsequently, heat index values are not forecast to be quite as 
high during this time...with values just below 105 degrees. For 
Sunday and beyond, rain chances will ramp back up as a decent 
trough begins to take shape to the north and west. The best rain 
chances will be initially along the Red River and across the Big 
Country. There is pretty decent agreement between the 
deterministic GFS and ECMWF in plowing a front through most of the
area early next week. The ECMWF is a lot more aggressive and 
blasts the front all the way towards the upper TX coast while the 
GFS slowly brings the front back to the north a little sooner. 
Regardless of the solution, it looks like there will be another 
period of below normal temperatures and rainfall for a good 
portion of the area. 

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/
/18Z TAFS/

Widespread high cloud cover persists across much of North Texas
this afternoon with most of the precipitation confined to the Red
River counties. With the upper low slowly pulling off to the
northeast, expect most of the precipitation to continue moving
away from the major airports. VFR should prevail through the
period with the cloud deck becoming scattered later today. There
is a low chance for some additional showers and thunderstorms
during the early morning hours mainly north of the major airports
and we'll continue to monitor this potential. At this time,
chances appear too low to mention in the TAFs. Southerly winds
around 10 kt will prevail through Wednesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  78  98  79 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Waco                76  95  76  98  77 /  10  10   5   5   5 
Paris               74  90  74  95  76 /  20  20  20  20  10 
Denton              75  95  77  98  76 /  20  10   5  10  10 
McKinney            75  94  76  96  77 /  20  10   5  10  10 
Dallas              77  96  79  98  80 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Terrell             76  91  77  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5 
Corsicana           76  92  76  97  77 /  10   5   5  10   5 
Temple              75  96  75  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Mineral Wells       73  97  74  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/91

FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Aug 14, 3:50 PM CDT
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 15:50:39

466 
FLUS44 KFWD 142050
HWOFWD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
350 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151330-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
350 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms near and north of the Highway
380 corridor. Widespread severe weather is not expected...but
frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday morning near and north of the
Highway 380 corridor. 

There will be a low risk for thunderstorms Friday and through early
next week...mainly near and north of I-20. The severe weather
potential does not appear high at this time...but there will be a
risk for strong winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Heat index values beginning Wednesday through Thursday will be 
between 100 and 107 along and east of the I-35 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 

$$

Bain

Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1287 [watch probability: 20%]
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 15:36:09

218 
ACUS11 KWNS 142036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142035 
OKZ000-TXZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western into Central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142035Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible over the next
several hours. Storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts in
addition to large hail. A WW issuance is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently developed in the
northeast Texas Panhandle into far northwest Oklahoma along a
boundary embedded within a broader zone of confluence. In addition,
a strong storm exhibiting transient supercell characteristics was
located along the McClain/Cleveland County Oklahoma border. These
storms are progressing across a moderately unstable airmass which
has recently undergone recovery from earlier precipitation via
strong surface heating. MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg are common
across much of the discussion area, and recent TLX profiler data
suggests modest low-level directional shear (150 m2/s2 SRH) is
present. Still, with modest mid and low-level lapse rates (i.e 6
C/km), and negligible speed shear throughout the troposphere
characterizing the ambient atmosphere, any severe threat that occurs
is expected to be brief. The moderate instability environment
suggests that the more organized/long-lived updrafts may pose a
threat for large hail and gusty winds, though some brief instances
of low-level rotation may be observed with the strongest of storms
given the modest low-level directional shear.

Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35530105 35890023 36399952 36589874 36399716 35949665
            35499641 35129641 34669659 34189686 33919710 33749758
            33649820 33879894 34269983 34630027 35530105 

FWD issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Aug 14, 3:07 PM CDT ...5 DAY RAINFALL REPORTS...
Posted on Tuesday August 14, 2018, 15:30:03

662 
NOUS44 KFWD 142029
PNSFWD

LLLFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-150807-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
307 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...5 DAY RAINFALL REPORTS...

                             Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon              

...Texas...

...Anderson County...
2 SW Palestine               2.24 in   0249 PM 08/14   31.73N/95.68W        
Palestine 4ESE               1.48 in   0205 PM 08/14   31.74N/95.57W        

...Bell County...
2 S Harker Heights           6.25 in   0700 AM 08/14   31.03N/97.65W        
Belton Reservoir             4.95 in   0200 PM 08/14   31.11N/97.47W        
2 S Nolanville               4.53 in   0700 AM 08/14   31.04N/97.60W        
1 W Morgan's Point Resort    3.79 in   0700 AM 08/14   31.15N/97.48W        
2 SSW Killeen                3.69 in   0300 PM 08/14   31.06N/97.73W        
Belton                       2.99 in   0700 AM 08/14   31.07N/97.46W        
Stillhouse Hollow Reservoir  2.76 in   0200 PM 08/14   31.02N/97.53W        
Killeen                      2.73 in   0253 PM 08/14   31.10N/97.73W        
Temple 3S                    1.60 in   0204 PM 08/14   31.06N/97.35W        
2 SE Nolanville              1.09 in   0744 AM 08/13   31.04N/97.58W        

...Bosque County...
No. Bosque River             1.18 in   0245 PM 08/14   31.67N/97.47W        

...Collin County...
2 SSE Frisco                 8.40 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.11N/96.80W        
1 WNW Frisco                 7.40 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.15N/96.84W        
Gunter 5SSW                  6.03 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.37N/96.76W        
2 S Celina                   5.77 in   0253 PM 08/14   33.29N/96.78W        
Frisco                       5.44 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.13N/96.82W        
4 ENE Frisco                 5.24 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.17N/96.75W        
3 ENE Prosper                5.12 in   0257 PM 08/14   33.26N/96.74W        
1 W Plano                    4.52 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.04N/96.77W        
2 WSW Plano                  4.22 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.03N/96.78W        
Prosper                      3.97 in   0800 AM 08/14   33.25N/96.77W        
4 S Gunter                   3.84 in   0258 PM 08/14   33.39N/96.74W        
1 WSW Anna                   3.57 in   0257 PM 08/14   33.34N/96.58W        
1 SSW Saint Paul             3.04 in   0249 PM 08/14   33.03N/96.55W        
1 S Plano                    2.88 in   1140 AM 08/13   33.03N/96.74W        
4 W Mckinney                 2.63 in   0245 PM 08/14   33.19N/96.73W        
1 WSW Lucas                  2.51 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.09N/96.60W        
Wilson Creek Near McKinney   2.49 in   0230 PM 08/14   33.18N/96.64W        
Murphy                       2.38 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.01N/96.61W        
3 NNE Addison                2.36 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.01N/96.81W        
2 NNE Parker                 2.32 in   0255 PM 08/14   33.09N/96.62W        
Prosper                      2.16 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.24N/96.80W        
1 NW Plano                   2.11 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.07N/96.77W        
4 N Plano                    2.09 in   0258 PM 08/14   33.10N/96.75W        
1 WSW Allen                  2.05 in   0244 PM 08/14   33.10N/96.69W        
2 WSW Parker                 2.02 in   0257 PM 08/14   33.05N/96.68W        
2 ESE Melissa                2.01 in   0257 PM 08/14   33.27N/96.53W        
2 N Parker                   2.00 in   0254 PM 08/14   33.08N/96.64W        
2 WSW Plano                  1.98 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.03N/96.78W        
3 SW Parker                  1.93 in   0251 PM 08/14   33.02N/96.67W        
1 SW Weston                  1.84 in   0252 PM 08/14   33.31N/96.66W        
East Fork Trinity River Near 1.81 in   0230 PM 08/14   33.20N/96.60W        
1 NE Plano                   1.71 in   0258 PM 08/14   33.06N/96.72W        
5 ESE Blue Ridge             1.69 in   0700 AM 08/13   33.27N/96.32W        
3 WSW Parker                 1.50 in   1236 AM 08/14   33.03N/96.69W        
2 E Fairview                 1.41 in   0245 PM 08/14   33.14N/96.58W        
4 NE Blue Ridge              1.35 in   0230 PM 08/14   33.34N/96.34W        
Lavon Reservoir              1.30 in   0200 PM 08/14   33.03N/96.48W        
Sister Grove Creek Near Blue 1.30 in   0200 PM 08/14   33.29N/96.48W        
Lavon                        1.28 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.04N/96.44W        
2 SSE Princeton              1.11 in   0640 AM 08/12   33.16N/96.49W        
1 ENE Sachse                 1.10 in   0246 PM 08/14   32.99N/96.55W        

...Comanche County...
9 SW Gorman                  2.33 in   0252 PM 08/14   32.12N/98.79W        
6 ENE Comanche               1.07 in   0700 AM 08/14   31.93N/98.49W        

...Cooke County...
Valley View                  3.92 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.44N/97.17W        
Elm Fork Trinity River       2.63 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.62N/97.16W        
4 WSW Thackerville           1.69 in   0255 PM 08/14   33.76N/97.22W        
2 S Callisburg               1.12 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.67N/97.01W        

...Coryell County...
Cow House Creek Near Pidcoke 2.13 in   0230 PM 08/14   31.28N/97.88W        
Evant High School            1.93 in   0245 PM 08/14   31.47N/98.15W        

...Dallas County...
2 SW Irving                  5.64 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.83N/97.00W        
Farmers Branch               5.52 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.94N/96.88W        
1 SE Irving                  4.04 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.84N/96.96W        
2 NE Addison                 3.44 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.98N/96.81W        
2 SSW Irving                 3.38 in   0252 PM 08/14   32.82N/96.99W        
2 WNW Buckingham             2.68 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.95N/96.77W        
1 WNW Addison                2.61 in   0251 PM 08/14   32.97N/96.86W        
1 E Coppell                  2.60 in   0640 AM 08/14   32.97N/96.96W        
1 NE Lancaster               2.52 in   0254 PM 08/14   32.62N/96.76W        
2 W Cedar Hill               2.24 in   0249 PM 08/14   32.58N/97.00W        
3 ESE Farmers Branch         2.22 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.91N/96.83W        
3 SE Addison                 2.00 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.93N/96.80W        
4 NE Dallas                  1.96 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.84N/96.71W        
3 SE Coppell                 1.80 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.92N/96.95W        
Elm Fork Trinity River Near  1.80 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.97N/96.94W        
1 NE Glenn Heights           1.77 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.57N/96.84W        
3 SSW Buckingham             1.73 in   0251 PM 08/14   32.89N/96.74W        
Mtn Creek Lake Near Grand Pr 1.70 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.73N/96.94W        
Sunnyvale                    1.68 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.80N/96.56W        
Cedar Hill State Park        1.67 in   0207 PM 08/14   32.61N/96.99W        
3 SSW Irving                 1.65 in   0902 AM 08/14   32.81N/96.99W        
1 NNW Duncanville            1.64 in   0800 AM 08/14   32.67N/96.92W        
2 W Buckingham               1.61 in   0244 PM 08/14   32.94N/96.76W        
2 NW Buckingham              1.58 in   0800 AM 08/14   32.96N/96.76W        
3 NW Mesquite                1.57 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.81N/96.64W        
White Rock Cr At Greenville  1.55 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.89N/96.76W        
West Fork Trinity River At G 1.53 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.76N/96.99W        
2 NNE Dallas                 1.47 in   0254 PM 08/14   32.83N/96.76W        
4 SW Irving                  1.42 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.80N/97.01W        
2 ENE Desoto                 1.37 in   0635 AM 08/14   32.61N/96.83W        
Mesquite                     1.33 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.77N/96.60W        
2 WNW Sunnyvale              1.33 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.82N/96.60W        
2 NW Garland                 1.30 in   0257 PM 08/14   32.94N/96.67W        
5 N Grand Prairie            1.26 in   1112 AM 08/14   32.77N/97.01W        
2 NNW Mesquite               1.25 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.80N/96.61W        
1 NNW Garland                1.13 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.94N/96.64W        
Sachse                       1.10 in   0253 PM 08/14   32.98N/96.57W        
2 NW Rowlett                 1.03 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.93N/96.57W        

...Denton County...
Shady Shores                 7.44 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.17N/97.05W        
2 W Frisco                   7.16 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.15N/96.85W        
1 SE Corinth                 5.64 in   0249 PM 08/14   33.13N/97.05W        
2 WNW Corinth                4.68 in   0248 PM 08/14   33.16N/97.11W        
3 W Cross Roads              4.60 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.22N/97.05W        
1 ENE Denton                 4.42 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.22N/97.11W        
3 S Denton                   4.33 in   0254 PM 08/14   33.17N/97.12W        
Highland Village             4.06 in   0257 PM 08/14   33.09N/97.06W        
2 SW Double Oak              4.03 in   0248 PM 08/14   33.03N/97.15W        
2 SSW Flower Mound           4.00 in   0248 PM 08/14   33.00N/97.10W        
1 ESE Corral City            3.87 in   0238 PM 08/14   33.09N/97.20W        
Clear Creek Near Sanger      3.86 in   0200 PM 08/14   33.34N/97.18W        
2 NE Flower Mound            3.77 in   0249 PM 08/14   33.06N/97.07W        
6 NW Krum                    3.74 in   0300 PM 08/14   33.34N/97.31W        
4 WNW Justin                 3.66 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.11N/97.36W        
3 NNE Argyle                 3.62 in   0243 PM 08/14   33.16N/97.17W        
Denton                       3.60 in   0205 PM 08/14   33.22N/97.14W        
2 S Ponder                   3.57 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.14N/97.29W        
Flower Mound                 3.51 in   0255 PM 08/14   33.03N/97.08W        
Krugerville                  3.39 in   0249 PM 08/14   33.27N/96.99W        
Denton Creek Near Justin     3.30 in   0200 PM 08/14   33.12N/97.29W        
Lewisville Reservoir         3.21 in   0247 PM 08/14   33.07N/96.96W        
Corral City                  3.19 in   0259 PM 08/14   33.10N/97.24W        
1 WNW Marshall Creek         3.19 in   0235 PM 08/14   33.02N/97.23W        
Lewisville                   3.08 in   0256 PM 08/14   33.04N/96.98W        
3 WSW Denton                 3.04 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.20N/97.19W        
2 E Trophy Club              2.98 in   0252 PM 08/14   33.00N/97.16W        
1 E Hackberry                2.56 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.14N/96.89W        
Krum                         2.54 in   0255 PM 08/14   33.26N/97.22W        
2 ENE Hackberry              2.46 in   0253 PM 08/14   33.17N/96.89W        
1 SSE Flower Mound           2.37 in   0815 AM 08/14   33.01N/97.08W        
2 SW Krum                    2.23 in   0300 PM 08/14   33.24N/97.26W        
Ray Roberts Reservoir        1.92 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.36N/97.05W        
Hebron                       1.80 in   0252 PM 08/14   33.05N/96.91W        
3 WNW Roanoke                1.48 in   0700 AM 08/12   33.02N/97.30W        
Flower Mound                 1.28 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.04N/97.10W        
2 E Flower Mound             1.27 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.02N/97.04W        
3 ESE Flower Mound           1.18 in   0443 AM 08/14   33.01N/97.04W        

...Eastland County...
Lake Leon Nr Ranger          1.44 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.36N/98.68W        

...Ellis County...
Waxahachie                   3.32 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.42N/96.84W        
Maypearl                     3.27 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.31N/97.02W        
Maypearl                     3.25 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.31N/97.02W        
5 SE Midlothian              3.20 in   0623 AM 08/13   32.44N/96.93W        
Maypearl                     3.18 in   0300 PM 08/14   32.31N/97.01W        
Palmer                       3.12 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.43N/96.68W        
5 NNW Blooming Grove         2.97 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.16N/96.76W        
Trinity River Near Rosser    2.84 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.43N/96.46W        
1 NNE Ennis                  2.74 in   0258 PM 08/14   32.35N/96.62W        
Oak Leaf                     2.74 in   0700 AM 08/12   32.52N/96.86W        
1 NW Palmer                  2.53 in   0252 PM 08/14   32.44N/96.69W        
2 S Ovilla                   1.88 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.50N/96.90W        
2 SW Ovilla                  1.83 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.52N/96.92W        
5 ESE Venus                  1.73 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.40N/97.01W        
5 SSE Midlothian             1.62 in   0228 PM 08/14   32.42N/96.95W        
2 SSW Ovilla                 1.51 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.51N/96.91W        

...Falls County...
Brazos River Near Highbank   1.15 in   0215 PM 08/14   31.13N/96.82W        

...Fannin County...
4 NE Blue Ridge              10.67 in  0252 PM 08/14   33.35N/96.35W        
Savoy                        2.84 in   0249 PM 08/14   33.60N/96.36W        
Honey Grove                  1.98 in   0500 PM 08/13   33.42N/95.90W        
Caddo Wildlife Management Ar 2.07 in   0602 AM 08/14   33.74N/95.92W        
2 NNW Dodd City              1.75 in   0500 AM 08/14   33.61N/96.10W       
Ladonia                      1.50 in   0230 PM 08/14   33.41N/95.94W        

...Freestone County...
Tehuacana Creek Near Streetm 2.96 in   0200 PM 08/14   31.85N/96.29W        
Wortham                      1.96 in   0250 PM 08/14   31.78N/96.47W        
4 NE Oakwood                 1.35 in   0700 AM 08/14   31.63N/95.81W        

...Grayson County...
Red River Below Lake Texoma  3.68 in   0600 AM 08/14   33.82N/96.56W 
3 S Dorchester               3.57 in   0246 PM 08/14   33.48N/96.69W        
3 WNW Van Alstyne            3.52 in   0249 PM 08/14   33.44N/96.63W        
Ranger Creek Near Collinsvil 3.05 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.53N/96.81W        
1 W Sadler                   3.04 in   0300 PM 08/14   33.69N/96.87W        
3 SW Knollwood               3.02 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.65N/96.66W        
1 ESE Denison                2.27 in   0253 PM 08/14   33.74N/96.54W        
4 SW Willis                  1.78 in   0700 AM 08/13   33.84N/96.88W        
Collinsville                 1.50 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.56N/96.91W        
Dept Public Works            1.10 in   1200 AM 08/12   33.70N/96.64W        

...Hamilton County...
7 S Hamilton                 2.25 in   0248 PM 08/14   31.60N/98.13W        
Leon River Near Hamilton     1.61 in   0215 PM 08/14   31.79N/98.12W        
10 SE Hamilton               1.44 in   0244 PM 08/14   31.60N/98.00W        

...Henderson County...
Eustace                      2.62 in   0705 AM 08/14   32.31N/96.01W        
1 NNW Tool                   2.02 in   0242 PM 08/14   32.31N/96.18W        
Trinity River At Trinidad    1.84 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.15N/96.10W        
Athens 5ENE                  1.00 in   0208 PM 08/14   32.22N/95.77W        

...Hill County...
Itasca                       4.43 in   0800 AM 08/13   32.16N/97.15W        
Covington                    4.42 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.19N/97.26W        
Mertens                      3.89 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.05N/96.91W        
Malone                       3.37 in   0215 PM 08/14   31.91N/96.88W        
Aquilla Reservoir            1.16 in   0230 PM 08/14   31.90N/97.20W        

...Hood County...
9 ESE Granbury               4.79 in   0248 PM 08/14   32.35N/97.66W        
7 ESE Granbury               4.51 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.37N/97.69W        
Midlothian                   3.61 in   0600 AM 08/13   32.48N/97.99W        
2 NE Granbury                3.60 in   0252 PM 08/14   32.47N/97.75W        
Granbury 1WNW                3.54 in   0203 PM 08/14   32.45N/97.82W        
3 NE Granbury                1.17 in   0249 PM 08/14   32.48N/97.75W        

...Hopkins County...
Cumby 5.6 SSE                2.44 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.06N/95.81W        

...Hunt County...
Wolfe City                   4.32 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.37N/96.08W        
2 S West Tawakoni            2.92 in   0251 PM 08/14   32.87N/96.02W        
Celeste 3WNW                 2.04 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.30N/96.24W        
7 NW Greenville              1.33 in   0700 AM 08/13   33.17N/96.08W        
Middle Sulphur River At Comm 1.10 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.27N/95.92W        
Greenville 8SW               1.08 in   0206 PM 08/14   33.04N/96.16W        

...Jack County...
Antelope                     1.37 in   0800 AM 08/14   33.44N/98.37W        

...Johnson County...
3 SSE Keene                  3.41 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.34N/97.31W        
2 WNW Keene                  2.80 in   0700 AM 08/12   32.41N/97.37W        
1 WNW Burleson               2.61 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.54N/97.35W        
2 NNE Briaroaks              2.26 in   0252 PM 08/14   32.52N/97.29W        
Mountain Creek               1.90 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.49N/97.12W        

...Kaufman County...
Kings Creek Near Kaufman     4.22 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.56N/96.34W        
1 NE Cottonwood              4.19 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.47N/96.38W        
Rosser                       3.56 in   0700 AM 08/12   32.46N/96.45W        
4 SW Lawrence                2.97 in   0256 PM 08/14   32.69N/96.39W        
2 ENE Forney                 1.43 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.77N/96.43W        

...Lamar County...
7 SSW Ord                    3.30 in   0700 AM 08/14   33.80N/95.52W        
Pat Mayes Reservoir          2.28 in   0200 PM 08/14   33.85N/95.54W        
Roxton                       1.96 in   0245 PM 08/14   33.54N/95.72W        

...Lampasas County...
Lometa 6SW                   3.07 in   0225 PM 08/14   31.16N/98.47W        
9 E San Saba                 2.84 in   0240 PM 08/14   31.22N/98.56W        
Lometa 2WNW                  2.80 in   0226 PM 08/14   31.23N/98.42W        
Lampasas 13WNW               2.39 in   0200 PM 08/14   31.10N/98.40W        
Lometa 11WNW                 2.36 in   0226 PM 08/14   31.08N/98.37W        
Lampasas River Near Kempner  1.56 in   0245 PM 08/14   31.08N/98.02W        
6 W Lometa                   1.31 in   0251 PM 08/14   31.20N/98.50W        

...Leon County...
Navasota River Near Easterly 1.06 in   0200 PM 08/14   31.17N/96.30W        

...Limestone County...
Tehuacana                    5.78 in   0740 AM 08/14   31.74N/96.55W        
Lake Mexia                   2.56 in   0215 PM 08/14   31.64N/96.58W        

...McLennan County...
Lorena                       3.88 in   0249 PM 08/14   31.39N/97.22W        
West                         2.95 in   0300 PM 08/14   31.80N/97.09W        
1 NW Hewitt                  2.88 in   0534 PM 08/12   31.47N/97.21W        
4 SW Woodway                 2.22 in   0830 AM 08/13   31.44N/97.27W        
Waco                         1.98 in   0245 PM 08/14   31.57N/97.20W        
7 ENE Crawford               1.82 in   0800 AM 08/13   31.58N/97.32W        
2 SE Beverly Hills           1.69 in   0245 PM 08/14   31.49N/97.13W        
1 ENE Mcgregor               1.64 in   0250 PM 08/14   31.46N/97.35W        
Waco Reservoir               1.52 in   0215 PM 08/14   31.58N/97.20W        
Hog Creek                    1.37 in   0245 PM 08/14   31.56N/97.36W        
Crawford                     1.21 in   0600 AM 08/14   31.53N/97.45W        
2 WSW Mcgregor               1.11 in   0259 PM 08/14   31.43N/97.41W        
McGregor 4S                  1.01 in   0201 PM 08/14   31.38N/97.41W        

...Milam County...
Cameron                      1.48 in   0634 AM 08/14   30.87N/96.97W  
4 WSW Buckholts              1.10 in   0300 PM 08/14   30.86N/97.20W        

...Mills County...
Goldthwaite 10ENE            2.35 in   0225 PM 08/14   31.47N/98.41W        
1 WSW Goldthwaite            1.31 in   0800 AM 08/13   31.45N/98.58W        
5 WSW Mullin                 1.18 in   0240 PM 08/14   31.52N/98.74W        

...Montague County...
Nocona 7ne                   3.29 in   0800 AM 08/14   33.84N/97.63W        

...Navarro County...
Navarro Mills Reservoir      5.52 in   0200 PM 08/14   31.96N/96.69W        
Corsicana                    5.40 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.10N/96.47W        
Frost                        4.72 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.08N/96.81W        
Corsicana 2NW                4.55 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.12N/96.49W        
2 NW Oak Valley              1.18 in   0615 AM 08/13   32.06N/96.53W        
1 SW Powell                  1.04 in   0700 AM 08/13   32.11N/96.34W        

...Palo Pinto County...
3 W Mineral Wells            2.38 in   0247 PM 08/14   32.81N/98.15W        
Brazos River Near Palo Pinto 1.62 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.86N/98.30W        

...Parker County...
Annetta South                5.44 in   0256 PM 08/14   32.67N/97.66W        
Walnut Creek At Reno         4.96 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.95N/97.58W        
Aledo 4.1 W                  4.41 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.69N/97.67W        
3 SW Azle                    3.91 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.85N/97.57W        
Bourland Field Airport 4NNE  3.39 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.59N/97.59W        
7 SSE Annetta South          3.19 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.57N/97.60W        
Brazos River At Dennis       2.83 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.62N/97.93W        
2 NE Springtown              2.71 in   0246 PM 08/14   32.99N/97.66W        
Clear Fk Trinity River Near  2.24 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.74N/97.65W        
1 E Annetta South            1.81 in   0259 PM 08/14   32.67N/97.62W        
Millsap                      1.76 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.75N/98.01W        

...Rockwall County...
1 SSE Heath                  1.89 in   0259 PM 08/14   32.82N/96.47W        
1 WSW Heath                  1.17 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.84N/96.50W        

...Somervell County...
Glen Rose                    3.04 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.23N/97.76W        
4 WNW Glen Rose              2.50 in   0257 PM 08/14   32.25N/97.83W        
Paluxy River At Glen Rose    2.21 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.23N/97.78W        
Brazo River Near Glen Rose   1.94 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.26N/97.70W        

...Tarrant County...      
2 SW White Settlement        6.96 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.73N/97.49W               
3 SE Westover Hills          6.36 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.71N/97.38W        
2 WNW Edgecliff              6.32 in   0801 AM 08/14   32.67N/97.38W        
2 SW Euless                  5.56 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.83N/97.10W        
1 NNE North Richland Hil     5.01 in   0254 PM 08/14   32.88N/97.21W        
West Fork Trinity River At F 4.77 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.76N/97.33W        
Benbrook Reservoir           4.61 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.65N/97.45W        
3 WSW Edgecliff              4.02 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.63N/97.40W        
1 N Colleyville              3.95 in   0258 PM 08/14   32.91N/97.15W        
Fort Worth Nature Center     3.94 in   0800 AM 08/14   32.85N/97.48W        
Lakeside                     3.91 in   0255 PM 08/14   32.83N/97.50W        
Marys Creek Near Benbrook    3.85 in   0245 PM 08/14   32.70N/97.45W        
1 NNW Eagle Mountain         3.58 in   0229 PM 08/14   32.92N/97.45W        
Keller                       3.57 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.97N/97.21W        
2 W Colleyville              3.52 in   0253 PM 08/14   32.89N/97.19W        
3 NW Watauga                 3.50 in   0247 PM 08/14   32.90N/97.30W        
1 W Richland Hills           3.38 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.81N/97.25W        
2 W Southlake                3.35 in   0242 PM 08/14   32.95N/97.19W        
West Fk Trinity @ Beach Stre 3.34 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.75N/97.29W        
West Fork Trinity River At W 3.25 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.76N/97.40W        
1 SSE Eagle Mountain         3.15 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.88N/97.44W        
1 N Southlake                3.05 in   0254 PM 08/14   32.97N/97.14W        
1 NE Watauga                 3.05 in   0253 PM 08/14   32.89N/97.24W        
1 E Colleyville              2.88 in   0253 PM 08/14   32.89N/97.13W        
Eagle Mountain Reservoir     2.77 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.88N/97.47W        
Clear Fork Trinity River Bel 2.41 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.66N/97.44W        
Lake Worth Reservoir         2.37 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.79N/97.42W        
2 SSW Dalworthington Gar     2.36 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.65N/97.17W        
3 WNW Edgecliff              2.36 in   0256 PM 08/14   32.69N/97.39W        
2 ENE Colleyville            2.32 in   0700 AM 08/13   32.90N/97.11W        
1 NNW Rendon                 2.31 in   0258 PM 08/14   32.60N/97.24W        
1 ENE Mansfield              2.30 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.58N/97.09W        
Walnut Creek Near Mansfield  2.25 in   0200 PM 08/14   32.58N/97.10W        
1 WSW Rendon                 2.08 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.57N/97.27W        
Dam                          1.91 in   0800 AM 08/13   32.65N/97.44W        
USACE Office Lake Grapevine  1.89 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.95N/97.06W        
4 S Bedford                  1.79 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.79N/97.14W        
Clear Fork Trinity River At  1.78 in   0230 PM 08/14   32.73N/97.36W        
1 ENE Pantego                1.76 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.72N/97.13W        
3 SSE Euless                 1.76 in   1156 AM 08/14   32.80N/97.06W        
Lake Arlington               1.61 in   0215 PM 08/14   32.72N/97.19W        
2 SW Grand Prairie           1.46 in   0809 AM 08/14   32.66N/97.04W        
1 ENE Pantego                1.44 in   0259 PM 08/14   32.72N/97.14W        
4 NE Arlington               1.36 in   0249 PM 08/14   32.75N/97.08W        
Arlington Municipal Airport  1.35 in   0653 AM 08/14   32.66N/97.09W        
2 NW Grand Prairie           1.18 in   1013 AM 08/14   32.73N/97.04W        
2 SSE Arlington              1.15 in   0252 PM 08/14   32.66N/97.11W        
1 WNW Grand Prairie          1.10 in   1216 PM 08/14   32.71N/97.04W        
Arlington 2NE                1.07 in   0700 AM 08/14   32.76N/97.07W        
3 NNE Arlington              1.04 in   0250 PM 08/14   32.74N/97.11W        

...Van Zandt County...
6 W Canton                   2.15 in   0700 AM 08/13   32.55N/95.97W        

...Wise County...
West Fork Trinity R          4.71 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.09N/97.56W        
Decatur                      4.14 in   0259 PM 08/14   33.24N/97.59W        
12 E Alvord                  2.70 in   0250 PM 08/14   33.39N/97.49W        
Runaway Bay                  2.55 in   0800 AM 08/14   33.17N/97.87W        
LBJ Grasslands               1.84 in   0202 PM 08/14   33.28N/97.63W        
Alvord 4NE                   1.37 in   0215 PM 08/14   33.39N/97.63W        

...Young County...
Graham                       1.16 in   0700 AM 08/12   33.10N/98.59W        

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers 
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$


GTXWXBot[OK]:

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 15, 17:26z for portions of OUN
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 12:27:20

082 
WUUS02 KWNS 151727
PTSDY2

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

VALID TIME 161200Z - 171200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2

... ANY SEVERE ...

0.05   43122230 44022216 44702169 45441969 45741791 45391698
       44781718 44071807 43521903 42962072 42872148 43122230
0.05   36888203 35638396 34928573 34118908 33459171 33409361
       33679534 34029700 34659862 35619958 36949961 37850016
       39250017 40689944 41989705 42409528 42209377 41629226
       40679165 39549184 38239239 36849314 36629059 38198812
       39398643 40398508 40848364 40968159 39948050 38478101
       36888203
0.15   40689519 39509434 38749456 38199512 37639711 37689846
       38229893 39279907 40349838 41169665 40969586 40689519
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   40969586 40689519 39509434 38749456 38199512 37639711
       37689846 38229893 39279907 40349838 41169665 40969586
MRGL   45741791 45391698 44781718 44071807 43521903 42962072
       42872148 43122230 44022216 44702169 45441969 45741791
MRGL   39948050 38478101 36888203 35638396 34928573 34118908
       33459171 33409361 33679534 34029700 34659862 35619958
       36949961 37850016 39250017 40689944 41989705 42409528
       42209377 41629226 40679165 39549184 38239239 36849314
       36629059 38198812 39398643 40398508 40848364 40968159
       39948050
TSTM   32211679 34031763 34251808 34531821 35031827 35561834
       35991860 36561892 37171947 37901976 38651982 39381908
       39961843 40621816 41171865 41531963 41912101 41752208
       41392297 41342364 41712394 42132401 43752340 44492281
       45602194 46102102 46701880 46951595 46621406 46311330
       45811287 44971265 44171276 42901284 42121224 41791142
       41431075 40900980 40500910 40390840 40960700 41410637
       41550543 41240426 40910348 40660259 40590144 41020082
       41760045 42880049 43890022 44659940 45329764 45349563
       45449287 45839030 45858846 45518654 45648406 45838275
       99999999 45307401 44617329 43807278 42627225 41647264
       41037342 40067502 39437545 38597558 37847548 37287500
       99999999 28059552 28549605 28939638 29359645 29979599
       30539491 31569436 32299515 32619677 32939844 33040009
       32460159 31640222 30670235 29600223

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
OMA 15 ESE SDA 30 NNE MKC 10 SE OJC 40 NNE CNU 20 E ICT 30 NNE P28
45 S RSL 30 NNW RSL 20 S HSI 20 NNE LNK 25 S OMA.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
ALW 55 NW MYL 30 E BKE 55 SSW BKE BNO 55 NNW LKV 50 NNE LMT 60 NNE
MFR 50 WSW RDM 40 NW RDM 45 WSW PDT 30 SE ALW.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
HLG 30 ENE CRW 35 NE TRI 15 S TYS 30 WSW CHA 20 WSW TUP 15 S LLQ 20
E TXK PRX 20 S ADM 10 W FSI 30 NW CSM 45 NNE GAG 10 WNW DDC 20 WSW
HLC 25 W EAR 20 E OFK 15 S SLB 35 SE FOD 35 WSW CID 30 WSW BRL 45 SW
UIN 30 SSW JEF 30 SSE SGF 10 SSW POF 35 WNW EVV 20 NNE BMG 20 ENE
MIE 15 S FDY 10 WNW CAK 20 SSE HLG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CZZ 10 WNW RAL
25 S PMD 10 SW PMD 25 WNW EDW 40 WSW NID 45 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 30
NNE FAT 60 NE MER 20 SSE TVL 20 WSW NFL 10 SE LOL 25 SW WMC 50 WNW
WMC 50 E AAT 35 WSW LKV 30 NNE MHS 35 W MHS 35 NE ACV 15 ESE CEC 15
ENE 4BK 25 SSW EUG 30 SSE SLE 30 E PDX 35 NNE DLS 50 NNW ALW 55 SSW
3TH 20 S MSO 25 SSW 3DU 20 WSW BTM 20 SSW DLN 35 SW MQM 10 W PIH MLD
40 NNW EVW 20 NE EVW 35 NNW VEL 25 ENE VEL 45 W CAG 40 NE CAG 35 W
LAR 20 NE LAR 30 ENE CYS 30 WSW SNY 35 SE SNY 10 ENE IML 10 SW LBF
40 ESE MHN VTN 35 S PIR 45 ENE PIR 35 NW ATY 40 SSW AXN 40 NNE MSP
40 WNW RHI 15 W IMT 30 ESE ESC 35 E PLN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 50 ENE
MSS 10 NW BTV 20 NNE RUT 20 S EEN 20 S BDL 20 WSW BDR 20 NE PHL 20
SSE ILG 20 NNW SBY WAL 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 65 SE PSX 15 SE PSX 15
NNW PSX 45 NNW PSX 50 WNW HOU 35 ESE UTS 30 NE LFK 15 ESE TYR 15 SSE
DAL 25 WNW MWL 50 NNW ABI 15 NNW BGS 20 S MAF 40 ESE FST 30 S 6R6.

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 12:09 PM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 12:09:48

327 
FXUS64 KOUN 151709
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs - MVFR/VFR ceilings this afternoon. Ceilings expected to
become VFR this evening with mid/high clouds through the rest of
the TAF period. Some showers/storms will be possible later tonight
into Thursday morning but chances are too low for mention in TAFs
except in NW OK where a prob30 is used. Gusty winds possible near
any storm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1115 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ 

UPDATE...
Rain has ended for now in the fa. Models, especially some CAMs,
are showing additional development in the east TX Panhandle later
this afternoon that could move into parts of SW OK and western
north Texas late this afternoon/evening. With this potential, have
added some low PoPs to SW portions of the fa. With the upper wave
exiting the area, subsidence is expected for at least a few hours
behind the wave which will hinder any additional storm development
for awhile. However, with a boundary across the area and moist 
airmass, the subsidence may weaken enough later this afternoon 
for some storms to develop in SE portions of the fa. Have lowered 
PoPs in this area but not completely removed yet. It will depend 
on whether enough recovery can occur by late this afternoon/early 
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A large storm system will move away to the east from Oklahoma this
morning. MVFR ceilings will linger at PNC this morning before
becoming scattered. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions are
expected. Early Thursday, thunderstorms may approach northwestern
Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning, radar showed diminishing convection in western
north Texas and slowly weakening storms across eastern sections of
the area from near Stillwater to Atoka. Some weak convection could
linger during the morning across the southeast portion of the
forecast area, but coverage is expected to be much less than the
last few days. 

Models depict an amplifying shortwave trough moving through 
eastern Oklahoma during the morning, rotating around departing 
closed low, now centered over Iowa. Height rises signaling 
subsidence in its wake would typically suppress any chance of 
diurnal convection. However, in this case there is some chance of 
isolated storms developing near an east-west stationary boundary
this afternoon. This is due to presence of rich boundary layer 
moisture and heating contributing to moderate to strong 
instability during the afternoon that may be enough to overcome
any subsidence and resultant CIN. This is conditional on how much
the atmosphere has been overturned across southeast portions of
the area. So, we'll need to monitor trends in observational data 
to assess this, as well as placement of the surface boundary, 
later today, and refine the forecast as needed. But, modest 
southerly low-level flow should be able to replenish boundary 
layer moisture that may have been depleted since rich moisture 
resides just to the south.

Although deep layer shear will again be weak (~25 knots), it may
be enough to sustain convection, possibly resulting in transient 
supercell characteristics again (or at least organized multicells) 
with any isolated storms that can form. Damaging winds would be 
the primary threat, but large hail cannot be ruled out especially 
with any storms that are pseudo-organized and persist. Heavy 
rainfall rates and locally confined flooding/flash flooding is 
possible. 

Storms should be confined to southeast portions of the area,
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35, if they form. 

Later in the night, increased northward flux of moisture and
fairly strong pressure advection on 310k isentropic surface should
be enough for at least isolated elevated convection to form. This
would be roughly along an east-west band parallel to I-40 from 
west-central Oklahoma eastward. Meanwhile, remnants of convection
across the High Plains may enter western Oklahoma overnight. All 
of this activity could linger into the early morning hours. 
Although intensity/coverage will lessen through the morning, some 
redevelopment across eastern portions of the area are possible as 
minor shortwave trough departs. This redevelopment would be most 
likely on the flanks of an MCV and/or along any boundaries that 
remain, and probably most likely in the Stillwater/Chandler to 
Ada/Atoka corridor eastward into eastern Oklahoma. 

Later in the night another shortwave trough will drop southeast
out of the northern Plains and into the Missouri Valley region.
Its proximity may encourage convective development as far
southwest as north-central through eastern Oklahoma. 

In a fairly neutral height environment with northwesterly flow, we
kept low probabilities in from Friday through Saturday. Better
chances may arrive late Saturday night into Sunday as medium range
guidance has been consistent in showing an amplified and fairly
strong but increasingly closed off system traversing the central
Plains then. There may be a minimum in precip coverage Monday and
Tuesday in its wake, followed by an amplifying upper flow pattern
and strengthening increasingly perturbed northwesterly flow by the
middle of next week. This may bring above normal rain chances
relative to climatology once again. 

Temperature wise, we made some adjustments to the model
consensus/blends for today and tomorrow. Both days will likely 
see pockets of lower temperatures than indicated in most models 
given saturated ground limiting surface heating. For OKC we're 
~3-4 degrees below MET/MAV guidance today (upper 80s are 
expected). 

Current model progs for RH may be too optimistic tomorrow morning
for areas with saturated ground, and we could see some fog. 
Although, the warm advection regime and/or approaching MCS may
bring clouds and winds may be just high enough for turbulent
mixing limiting this potential. If confidence grows we'll add fog
to the forecast in later updates. 

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  89  72  92 /  20  20  20  10 
Hobart OK         73  96  75  97 /  20  20  20  10 
Wichita Falls TX  75  97  76  97 /  20  10  20  10 
Gage OK           68  93  68  92 /  40  20  20  10 
Ponca City OK     68  89  71  90 /  10  20  40  10 
Durant OK         75  95  76  94 /  20  20  10  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/10/01

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Aug 15, 11:56 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 11:56:11

019 
FLUS44 KOUN 151656
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this 
afternoon into the evening with damaging wind gusts being the 
primary hazard. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could cause 
localized flooding.

There is a chance additional thunderstorms may move into western
Oklahoma late tonight. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms... 
Thunderstorms are possible each day Thursday through Tuesday, but
the highest chance will be late Saturday into Sunday. There is a 
Marginal Risk for severe storms on Thursday and Friday. 

.Heavy Rainfall..
Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could cause localized flooding,
especially at any locations that have recently had significant 
rainfall. 

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Mahale

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 15, 16:19z for portions of OUN
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 11:20:51

707 
WUUS01 KWNS 151620
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

VALID TIME 151630Z - 161200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   41150068 41580212 42380251 42930216 43370175 43740124
       44020045 44209942 43819879 43469835 43039826 42319845
       41769874 41179933 41150068
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   40470048 41180250 42090321 43230305 43830240 45040070
       45299974 44869844 43709700 42719718 41989773 40969831
       40489903 40470048
0.15   41150072 41590212 42410251 42960214 43410176 43750118
       44040040 44199944 43869880 43489833 43069826 42289845
       41759876 41169931 41150072
SIGN   41480096 41690162 42170200 42600203 42970173 43310111
       43440038 43329935 43069889 42619870 42099881 41599925
       41409951 41360027 41480096
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   34059415 34019470 34209588 34599662 35109685 35759643
       36279479 37379229 38769028 39708847 39878685 39318520
       38668478 37598498 36658561 35528857 34189275 34059415
0.05   45366723 44716837 43497241 43267486 43467646 43857771
0.05   41200252 42090321 43190309 43970218 45060068 45289977
       44859842 43699702 42709716 41969775 40959833 40489903
       40460043 41200252
0.05   36140154 35580208 34970289 35170473 36260482 37190455
       38270448 38460397 38350313 37740209 36140154
0.15   41759874 41179933 41130070 41610215 42410249 43390173
       43740118 44020043 44189946 43849877 43479833 43039826
       42269845 41759874
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   41169935 41150068 41590215 42380251 42930216 43370178
       43740122 44040040 44199946 43849880 43499831 43069824
       42289847 41769874 41169935
MRGL   35118990 34199275 34009472 34179585 34609663 35109687
       35759642 36279476 37369233 38849013 39728845 39898691
       39348527 38698481 37618497 36668558 35598839 35118990
MRGL   45336727 44726834 43467246 43267488 43457644 43797759
MRGL   42100321 43170309 44010221 45040072 45299977 44849844
       43699701 42729714 41999771 40969829 40489905 40470048
       41210254 42100321
MRGL   38270448 38440399 38350313 37770214 36980188 36170163
       35590205 34950286 35180463 36260482 37120457 38270448
TSTM   39407378 39637550 39547756 39457920 38668009 38098030
       37668052 36878009 35678080 35178128 34778107 34638017
       35317882 36117790 36507732 36607511 99999999 36198415
       36378559 35528739 34378949 34009066 33019023 33578823
       33868603 34208440 35058352 35868389 36198415 99999999
       39349526 39759585 40049677 39979742 39709844 38889868
       37369920 36309958 35279851 35289780 36289606 37559537
       38679524 39349526 99999999 28339504 28429631 28779748
       29529741 30409704 31259627 32049583 32649621 33069868
       33030037 32620161 32200189 31410223 30970238 30550230
       29460158 99999999 31941721 33891726 34931729 35851676
       36481649 37081644 37491657 37761679 37941720 37781750
       37541767 36931785 36511788 36291824 36321871 36701918
       37201958 37882004 38542035 39492063 40692076 41222096
       41302154 41122238 41112296 41332347 41522360 42022355
       42982315 44372279 45382173 45432095 44702015 43691858
       43021747 42871644 42331520 41441400 40811295 40671182
       41171057 41060926 40400907 40060869 39920818 40260708
       40780485 41190314 42360435 43230517 44030574 44710489
       45590335 46279998 46259944 45479743 44809612 44639498
       44779372 45359256 46159052 46448877 46428657 46268458
       46078315

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
BBW LBF 45 SE AIA 25 NNE AIA 50 E CDR 50 S PHP 30 SE PHP 25 SSW PIR
30 NNW 9V9 25 E 9V9 25 SW MHE 45 WNW YKN 15 SE ONL 20 E BUB 25 SE
BBW.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM 30
SE HOT 20 W DEQ 35 ENE DUA 30 NE ADM 45 S CQB 20 E CQB 25 S GMJ 30
SSW TBN ALN 20 NNW MTO 35 WNW IND 50 WNW LUK 35 SW LUK 35 SW LEX 50
ESE BWG 30 E MKL MEM.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EPM 20 N BHB 15 SW LEB 25 ENE UCA 30 NW SYR 45 N ROC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
AIA 25 N CDR 30 W PHP 35 SSW MBG 35 ESE MBG 35 NNW HON 15 WNW FSD 20
SE YKN 15 W OFK GRI 15 S EAR 20 NNE MCK 25 ENE SNY 20 W AIA.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUB 30
ENE PUB 30 NE LHX 35 SE LAA EHA 35 NNW BGD 30 NW AMA 45 ESE TCC 45
SE LVS 35 SSW RTN 15 SW TAD PUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ACY ILG 15 SE
HGR 40 ESE MGW 20 SW EKN 20 N SSU 15 SW SSU 30 S ROA 30 NNE CLT 20 W
CLT 30 SSW CLT 40 NW FLO 25 N FAY 20 N RWI 20 E RZZ 65 ESE ORF
...CONT... 25 NNW TYS 40 NW CSV 55 NNE MSL UOX 40 NNE GLH 35 SSW GWO
15 ESE CBM 10 SSE GAD 40 N ATL 60 NW AND TYS 25 NNW TYS ...CONT...
20 W FLV 25 SSW FNB 15 S BIE 30 NNE CNK 45 WNW CNK 10 ENE RSL 35 W
P28 10 E GAG 35 WNW CHK 15 SW OKC 10 WNW TUL 10 SE CNU 30 WSW OJC 20
W FLV ...CONT... 60 SSE LBX 20 S PSX 30 NNE NIR 40 ESE BAZ 40 E AUS
45 N CLL 35 SW TYR 40 ESE DAL 40 WNW MWL 60 NW ABI 30 NNW BGS 25 W
BGS 35 S MAF 30 E FST 35 N 6R6 40 W DRT ...CONT... 55 S SAN 10 ESE
RAL 30 W DAG 55 ENE NID 30 WSW DRA 35 NW DRA 50 SE TPH 25 SE TPH 10
SW TPH 30 SW TPH 40 ENE BIH 40 SE BIH 60 N NID 50 NW NID 65 ESE FAT
30 E FAT 30 NNE FAT 50 NNE MER 30 SW TVL 45 W RNO 55 S AAT 25 SW AAT
40 E MHS 15 SSW MHS 35 WSW MHS 40 NE ACV 35 ESE CEC 35 E 4BK 45 NNW
MFR 25 NE EUG 30 WSW DLS 15 SE DLS 60 ENE RDM 20 ENE BNO 35 NE REO
50 SSW BOI 40 WSW TWF 50 N ENV 45 N DPG 10 SE SLC 25 ESE EVW 40 SSW
RKS 25 E VEL 50 ESE VEL 55 SW CAG 30 SE CAG 25 NNE FCL 10 NW SNY 25
NNW TOR 35 NNE DGW 25 SSW GCC 40 NE GCC 10 ENE 2WX 50 SE BIS 60 SW
JMS 40 NNW ATY 40 SSE VVV RWF 25 WSW MSP 45 NE MSP 30 SW IWD 50 SSW
CMX 50 E MQT 20 SW ANJ 65 ESE ANJ.

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 11:15 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 11:15:37

165 
FXUS64 KOUN 151615 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Rain has ended for now in the fa. Models, especially some CAMs,
are showing additional development in the east TX Panhandle later
this afternoon that could move into parts of SW OK and western
north Texas late this afternoon/evening. With this potential, have
added some low PoPs to SW portions of the fa. With the upper wave
exiting the area, subsidence is expected for at least a few hours
behind the wave which will hinder any additional storm development
for awhile. However, with a boundary across the area and moist 
airmass, the subsidence may weaken enough later this afternoon 
for some storms to develop in SE portions of the fa. Have lowered 
PoPs in this area but not completely removed yet. It will depend 
on whether enough recovery can occur by late this afternoon/early 
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A large storm system will move away to the east from Oklahoma this
morning. MVFR ceilings will linger at PNC this morning before
becoming scattered. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions are
expected. Early Thursday, thunderstorms may approach northwestern
Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning, radar showed diminishing convection in western
north Texas and slowly weakening storms across eastern sections of
the area from near Stillwater to Atoka. Some weak convection could
linger during the morning across the southeast portion of the
forecast area, but coverage is expected to be much less than the
last few days. 

Models depict an amplifying shortwave trough moving through 
eastern Oklahoma during the morning, rotating around departing 
closed low, now centered over Iowa. Height rises signaling 
subsidence in its wake would typically suppress any chance of 
diurnal convection. However, in this case there is some chance of 
isolated storms developing near an east-west stationary boundary
this afternoon. This is due to presence of rich boundary layer 
moisture and heating contributing to moderate to strong 
instability during the afternoon that may be enough to overcome
any subsidence and resultant CIN. This is conditional on how much
the atmosphere has been overturned across southeast portions of
the area. So, we'll need to monitor trends in observational data 
to assess this, as well as placement of the surface boundary, 
later today, and refine the forecast as needed. But, modest 
southerly low-level flow should be able to replenish boundary 
layer moisture that may have been depleted since rich moisture 
resides just to the south.

Although deep layer shear will again be weak (~25 knots), it may
be enough to sustain convection, possibly resulting in transient 
supercell characteristics again (or at least organized multicells) 
with any isolated storms that can form. Damaging winds would be 
the primary threat, but large hail cannot be ruled out especially 
with any storms that are pseudo-organized and persist. Heavy 
rainfall rates and locally confined flooding/flash flooding is 
possible. 

Storms should be confined to southeast portions of the area,
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35, if they form. 

Later in the night, increased northward flux of moisture and
fairly strong pressure advection on 310k isentropic surface should
be enough for at least isolated elevated convection to form. This
would be roughly along an east-west band parallel to I-40 from 
west-central Oklahoma eastward. Meanwhile, remnants of convection
across the High Plains may enter western Oklahoma overnight. All 
of this activity could linger into the early morning hours. 
Although intensity/coverage will lessen through the morning, some 
redevelopment across eastern portions of the area are possible as 
minor shortwave trough departs. This redevelopment would be most 
likely on the flanks of an MCV and/or along any boundaries that 
remain, and probably most likely in the Stillwater/Chandler to 
Ada/Atoka corridor eastward into eastern Oklahoma. 

Later in the night another shortwave trough will drop southeast
out of the northern Plains and into the Missouri Valley region.
Its proximity may encourage convective development as far
southwest as north-central through eastern Oklahoma. 

In a fairly neutral height environment with northwesterly flow, we
kept low probabilities in from Friday through Saturday. Better
chances may arrive late Saturday night into Sunday as medium range
guidance has been consistent in showing an amplified and fairly
strong but increasingly closed off system traversing the central
Plains then. There may be a minimum in precip coverage Monday and
Tuesday in its wake, followed by an amplifying upper flow pattern
and strengthening increasingly perturbed northwesterly flow by the
middle of next week. This may bring above normal rain chances
relative to climatology once again. 

Temperature wise, we made some adjustments to the model
consensus/blends for today and tomorrow. Both days will likely 
see pockets of lower temperatures than indicated in most models 
given saturated ground limiting surface heating. For OKC we're 
~3-4 degrees below MET/MAV guidance today (upper 80s are 
expected). 

Current model progs for RH may be too optimistic tomorrow morning
for areas with saturated ground, and we could see some fog. 
Although, the warm advection regime and/or approaching MCS may
bring clouds and winds may be just high enough for turbulent
mixing limiting this potential. If confidence grows we'll add fog
to the forecast in later updates. 

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  89  72 /  10  20  20  20 
Hobart OK         92  73  96  75 /  10  20  20  20 
Wichita Falls TX  96  75  97  76 /  10  20  10  20 
Gage OK           88  68  93  68 /  10  40  20  20 
Ponca City OK     87  68  89  71 /  10  10  20  40 
Durant OK         91  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/10

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Aug 15, 10:12 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 10:12:41

995 
FLUS44 KOUN 151512 AAA
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1012 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161515-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1012 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the
evening, primarily over southern and eastern Oklahoma. Some 
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds 
being the main threat. Heavy rainfall amounts from storms could 
cause localized flooding.

There is a chance additional thunderstorms may move into western
Oklahoma late tonight. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms... 
Thunderstorms are possible each day Thursday through Tuesday, but
the best chance will be on Saturday and Sunday. The threat of 
severe storms appears to be low at this time. Heavy rainfall 
amounts from storms could cause localized flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Mahale

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 15, 12:59z for portions of OUN
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 08:01:19

349 
WUUS01 KWNS 151301
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

VALID TIME 151300Z - 161200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   41150068 41580212 42380251 42930216 43370175 43740124
       44020045 44209942 43819879 43469835 43039826 42319845
       41769874 41179933 41150068
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   40470048 41180250 42090321 43230305 43830240 45040070
       45299974 44869844 43709700 42719718 41989773 40969831
       40489903 40470048
0.15   41150072 41590212 42410251 42960214 43410176 43750118
       44040040 44199944 43869880 43489833 43069826 42289845
       41759876 41169931 41150072
SIGN   41480096 41690162 42170200 42600203 42970173 43310111
       43440038 43329935 43069889 42619870 42099881 41599925
       41409951 41360027 41480096
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   41200252 42090321 43190309 43970218 45060068 45289977
       44859842 43699702 42709716 41969775 40959833 40489903
       40460043 41200252
0.05   34059415 34019470 34209588 34599662 35109685 35759643
       36279479 37379229 38769028 39708847 39878685 39318520
       38668478 37598498 36658561 35528857 34189275 34059415
0.05   45366723 44716837 43497241 43267486 43467646 43857771
0.05   35590203 35840390 36260482 37190455 38270448 38460397
       38350313 37740209 36160163 35590203
0.15   41759874 41179933 41130070 41610215 42410249 43390173
       43740118 44020043 44189946 43849877 43479833 43039826
       42269845 41759874
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   41169935 41150068 41590215 42380251 42930216 43370178
       43740122 44040040 44199946 43849880 43499831 43069824
       42289847 41769874 41169935
MRGL   35118990 34199275 34009472 34179585 34609663 35109687
       35759642 36279476 37369233 38849013 39728845 39898691
       39348527 38698481 37618497 36668558 35598839 35118990
MRGL   45336727 44726834 43467246 43267488 43457644 43797759
MRGL   42100321 43170309 44010221 45040072 45299977 44849844
       43699701 42729714 41999771 40969829 40489905 40470048
       41210254 42100321
MRGL   38270448 38440399 38350313 37770214 36980188 36170163
       35590205 35860394 36260482 37120457 38270448
TSTM   27439611 27979729 28529751 29529741 30409704 31259627
       32049583 32649621 33069868 33030037 32620161 32200189
       31410223 30970238 30550230 29460158 99999999 40189612
       40439682 40369757 40039835 39529875 38959869 38589822
       38029745 37399683 37469604 37799536 38679524 39309508
       39779543 40189612 99999999 40127281 40577358 40707422
       40697621 40557764 39737913 38668011 38098030 37668052
       36878009 35678080 35178128 34778107 34638017 35317882
       36117790 36507732 36607511 99999999 31941721 33891726
       34931729 35851676 36481649 37081644 37491657 37761679
       37941720 37781750 37541767 36931785 36511788 36291824
       36321871 36701918 37201958 37882004 38542035 39492063
       40692076 41222096 41302154 41122238 41112296 41332347
       41522360 42022355 42982315 44292268 45292190 45542032
       45131882 43991764 43091633 42751491 42251392 41641307
       41351231 41341146 41391019 41060926 40400907 40060869
       39920818 40200697 39710540 39420401 39510263 39960222
       41000287 42370420 43470501 44960541 45710536 46430414
       46560175 46259944 45479743 44809612 44639498 44779372
       45359256 46159052 46448877 46428657 46268458 46078315

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
BBW LBF 45 SE AIA 25 NNE AIA 50 E CDR 50 S PHP 30 SE PHP 25 SSW PIR
30 NNW 9V9 25 E 9V9 25 SW MHE 45 WNW YKN 15 SE ONL 20 E BUB 25 SE
BBW.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM 30
SE HOT 20 W DEQ 35 ENE DUA 30 NE ADM 45 S CQB 20 E CQB 25 S GMJ 30
SSW TBN ALN 20 NNW MTO 35 WNW IND 50 WNW LUK 35 SW LUK 35 SW LEX 50
ESE BWG 30 E MKL MEM.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EPM 20 N BHB 15 SW LEB 25 ENE UCA 30 NW SYR 45 N ROC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
AIA 25 N CDR 30 W PHP 35 SSW MBG 35 ESE MBG 35 NNW HON 15 WNW FSD 20
SE YKN 15 W OFK GRI 15 S EAR 20 NNE MCK 25 ENE SNY 20 W AIA.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUB 30
ENE PUB 30 NE LHX 35 SE LAA EHA 35 NNW BGD 30 NW AMA 50 NNW TCC 35
SSW RTN 15 SW TAD PUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE CRP 20 NE CRP
15 NE NIR 40 ESE BAZ 40 E AUS 45 N CLL 35 SW TYR 40 ESE DAL 40 WNW
MWL 60 NW ABI 30 NNW BGS 25 W BGS 35 S MAF 30 E FST 35 N 6R6 40 W
DRT ...CONT... 30 WNW FNB 10 NNW BIE 45 W BIE 40 S HSI 45 N RSL 10
NE RSL 35 WSW SLN 25 E HUT 35 ESE ICT 35 WSW CNU 10 NE CNU 30 WSW
OJC 10 WSW FLV 20 SSE FNB 30 WNW FNB ...CONT... 50 SSE ISP 10 ESE
JFK EWR 40 W ABE 25 SSE UNV 40 SSE LBE 20 SW EKN 20 N SSU 15 SW SSU
30 S ROA 30 NNE CLT 20 W CLT 30 SSW CLT 40 NW FLO 25 N FAY 20 N RWI
20 E RZZ 65 ESE ORF ...CONT... 55 S SAN 10 ESE RAL 30 W DAG 55 ENE
NID 30 WSW DRA 35 NW DRA 50 SE TPH 25 SE TPH 10 SW TPH 30 SW TPH 40
ENE BIH 40 SE BIH 60 N NID 50 NW NID 65 ESE FAT 30 E FAT 30 NNE FAT
50 NNE MER 30 SW TVL 45 W RNO 55 S AAT 25 SW AAT 40 E MHS 15 SSW MHS
35 WSW MHS 40 NE ACV 35 ESE CEC 35 E 4BK 45 NNW MFR 30 ENE EUG 40
ESE PDX 40 E DLS 40 S PDT 60 S BKE 35 S BOI 30 NW TWF 20 SSW BYI 55
SW MLD 20 NW OGD 25 W EVW 45 E EVW 40 SSW RKS 25 E VEL 50 ESE VEL 55
SW CAG 35 SE CAG 30 W DEN 20 WNW LIC 25 NW ITR 50 SW IML 10 SE SNY
20 N TOR 55 NNE DGW 35 S 4BQ 20 N 4BQ BHK 50 NNE Y22 60 SW JMS 40
NNW ATY 40 SSE VVV RWF 25 WSW MSP 45 NE MSP 30 SW IWD 50 SSW CMX 50
E MQT 20 SW ANJ 65 ESE ANJ.

OUN issues Record Event Report (RER) at Aug 15, 7:05 AM CDT ...NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY AUG 14TH...
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 07:15:20

647 
SXUS74 KOUN 151215
REROKC

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY AUG 14TH...

THE OFFICIAL MEASURED RAINFALL AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT IN 
OKLAHOMA CITY ON AUGUST 14 WAS 5.06 INCHES. THIS EXCEEDS THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.93 INCHES, WHICH OCCURRED IN 1989. 

THE 5.06 INCHES MEASURED AUGUST 14TH ALSO BECOMES THE NEW RECORD 
RAINFALL FOR ANY CALENDAR DAY IN AUGUST. THAT PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 
4.62 INCHES, MEASURED ON AUGUST 11 IN 2008.

WEATHER RECORDS FOR OKLAHOMA CITY DATE BACK TO NOVEMBER 1890.

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 6:17 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 06:17:20

906 
FXUS64 KOUN 151117
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
A large storm system will move away to the east from Oklahoma this
morning. MVFR ceilings will linger at PNC this morning before
becoming scattered. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions are
expected. Early Thursday, thunderstorms may approach northwestern
Oklahoma.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning, radar showed diminishing convection in western
north Texas and slowly weakening storms across eastern sections of
the area from near Stillwater to Atoka. Some weak convection could
linger during the morning across the southeast portion of the
forecast area, but coverage is expected to be much less than the
last few days. 

Models depict an amplifying shortwave trough moving through 
eastern Oklahoma during the morning, rotating around departing 
closed low, now centered over Iowa. Height rises signaling 
subsidence in its wake would typically suppress any chance of 
diurnal convection. However, in this case there is some chance of 
isolated storms developing near an east-west stationary boundary
this afternoon. This is due to presence of rich boundary layer 
moisture and heating contributing to moderate to strong 
instability during the afternoon that may be enough to overcome
any subsidence and resultant CIN. This is conditional on how much
the atmosphere has been overturned across southeast portions of
the area. So, we'll need to monitor trends in observational data 
to assess this, as well as placement of the surface boundary, 
later today, and refine the forecast as needed. But, modest 
southerly low-level flow should be able to replenish boundary 
layer moisture that may have been depleted since rich moisture 
resides just to the south.

Although deep layer shear will again be weak (~25 knots), it may
be enough to sustain convection, possibly resulting in transient 
supercell characteristics again (or at least organized multicells) 
with any isolated storms that can form. Damaging winds would be 
the primary threat, but large hail cannot be ruled out especially 
with any storms that are pseudo-organized and persist. Heavy 
rainfall rates and locally confined flooding/flash flooding is 
possible. 

Storms should be confined to southeast portions of the area,
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35, if they form. 

Later in the night, increased northward flux of moisture and
fairly strong pressure advection on 310k isentropic surface should
be enough for at least isolated elevated convection to form. This
would be roughly along an east-west band parallel to I-40 from 
west-central Oklahoma eastward. Meanwhile, remnants of convection
across the High Plains may enter western Oklahoma overnight. All 
of this activity could linger into the early morning hours. 
Although intensity/coverage will lessen through the morning, some 
redevelopment across eastern portions of the area are possible as 
minor shortwave trough departs. This redevelopment would be most 
likely on the flanks of an MCV and/or along any boundaries that 
remain, and probably most likely in the Stillwater/Chandler to 
Ada/Atoka corridor eastward into eastern Oklahoma. 

Later in the night another shortwave trough will drop southeast
out of the northern Plains and into the Missouri Valley region.
Its proximity may encourage convective development as far
southwest as north-central through eastern Oklahoma. 

In a fairly neutral height environment with northwesterly flow, we
kept low probabilities in from Friday through Saturday. Better
chances may arrive late Saturday night into Sunday as medium range
guidance has been consistent in showing an amplified and fairly
strong but increasingly closed off system traversing the central
Plains then. There may be a minimum in precip coverage Monday and
Tuesday in its wake, followed by an amplifying upper flow pattern
and strengthening increasingly perturbed northwesterly flow by the
middle of next week. This may bring above normal rain chances
relative to climatology once again. 

Temperature wise, we made some adjustments to the model
consensus/blends for today and tomorrow. Both days will likely 
see pockets of lower temperatures than indicated in most models 
given saturated ground limiting surface heating. For OKC we're 
~3-4 degrees below MET/MAV guidance today (upper 80s are 
expected). 

Current model progs for RH may be too optimistic tomorrow morning
for areas with saturated ground, and we could see some fog. 
Although, the warm advection regime and/or approaching MCS may
bring clouds and winds may be just high enough for turbulent
mixing limiting this potential. If confidence grows we'll add fog
to the forecast in later updates. 

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  89  72 /  10  20  20  20 
Hobart OK         92  73  96  75 /  10  20  20  20 
Wichita Falls TX  96  75  97  76 /  10  20  10  20 
Gage OK           88  68  93  68 /  10  40  20  20 
Ponca City OK     87  68  89  71 /  10  10  20  40 
Durant OK         91  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/12/09

OUN issues SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Pottawatomie, northeastern Cleveland and southwestern Lincoln Counties Until 600 AM CDT.
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 05:22:17

477 
WWUS84 KOUN 151022
SPSOUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
522 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018
 
OKZ025-026-029-030-151100-
Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-Lincoln OK-
522 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Oklahoma...
northwestern Pottawatomie...northeastern Cleveland and southwestern
Lincoln Counties Until 600 AM CDT....

AT 520 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Nicoma Park,
moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter... 
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage... 

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Oklahoma City, Midwest City, Shawnee, Del City, Tecumseh,
Choctaw, Harrah, McLoud, Spencer, Jones, Nicoma Park, Meeker, Tinker
Air Force Base, Dale, Newalla, Bethel Acres and Aydelotte.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 155 and 187.
 Interstate 240 between mile markers 12 and 16.

LAT...LON 3542 9746 3559 9739 3550 9685 3524 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 287DEG 22KT 3549 9734 

$$

WR

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Aug 15, 4:50 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 04:50:38

761 
FLUS44 KOUN 150950
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
450 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
450 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will linger across portions of the area this 
morning. Additional thunderstorm development could occur this 
afternoon and evening, primarily over southern and eastern 
Oklahoma. Storms this afternoon and evening could be strong to 
severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. Heavy rainfall 
amounts from storms could cause localized flooding. There is a 
slight chance of thunderstorms across much of the area overnight. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms... 
Thunderstorms are possible each day Thursday through Tuesday, but
the best chance will be on Saturday and Sunday. The threat of
severe storms appears to be low at this time. 

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

OUN issues SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Oklahoma and east central Canadian Counties Until 500 AM CDT.
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 04:28:25

257 
WWUS84 KOUN 150928
SPSOUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
428 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018
 
OKZ024-025-151000-
Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
428 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Oklahoma and east
central Canadian Counties Until 500 AM CDT....

AT 426 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over western
Oklahoma City, moving east at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter... 
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, Midwest City, Del City, Yukon, Bethany, Warr Acres,
The Village, Piedmont, Spencer, Nichols Hills, Valley Brook, Tinker
Air Force Base, Forest Park, Woodlawn Park, Lake Aluma, Smith
Village, The Capitol, Wiley Post Airport and The Fairgrounds.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 122 and 136.
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 132 and 157.
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 117 and 130.
 Interstate 240 between mile markers 5 and 8.

LAT...LON 3556 9738 3538 9742 3538 9745 3549 9784
      3563 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 284DEG 26KT 3553 9769 

$$

WR

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 3:32 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 03:32:24

340 
FXUS64 KOUN 150832
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
332 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning, radar showed diminishing convection in western
north Texas and slowly weakening storms across eastern sections of
the area from near Stillwater to Atoka. Some weak convection could
linger during the morning across the southeast portion of the
forecast area, but coverage is expected to be much less than the
last few days. 

Models depict an amplifying shortwave trough moving through 
eastern Oklahoma during the morning, rotating around departing 
closed low, now centered over Iowa. Height rises signaling 
subsidence in its wake would typically suppress any chance of 
diurnal convection. However, in this case there is some chance of 
isolated storms developing near an east-west stationary boundary
this afternoon. This is due to presence of rich boundary layer 
moisture and heating contributing to moderate to strong 
instability during the afternoon that may be enough to overcome
any subsidence and resultant CIN. This is conditional on how much
the atmosphere has been overturned across southeast portions of
the area. So, we'll need to monitor trends in observational data 
to assess this, as well as placement of the surface boundary, 
later today, and refine the forecast as needed. But, modest 
southerly low-level flow should be able to replenish boundary 
layer moisture that may have been depleted since rich moisture 
resides just to the south.

Although deep layer shear will again be weak (~25 knots), it may
be enough to sustain convection, possibly resulting in transient 
supercell characteristics again (or at least organized multicells) 
with any isolated storms that can form. Damaging winds would be 
the primary threat, but large hail cannot be ruled out especially 
with any storms that are pseudo-organized and persist. Heavy 
rainfall rates and locally confined flooding/flash flooding is 
possible. 

Storms should be confined to southeast portions of the area,
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35, if they form. 

Later in the night, increased northward flux of moisture and
fairly strong pressure advection on 310k isentropic surface should
be enough for at least isolated elevated convection to form. This
would be roughly along an east-west band parallel to I-40 from 
west-central Oklahoma eastward. Meanwhile, remnants of convection
across the High Plains may enter western Oklahoma overnight. All 
of this activity could linger into the early morning hours. 
Although intensity/coverage will lessen through the morning, some 
redevelopment across eastern portions of the area are possible as 
minor shortwave trough departs. This redevelopment would be most 
likely on the flanks of an MCV and/or along any boundaries that 
remain, and probably most likely in the Stillwater/Chandler to 
Ada/Atoka corridor eastward into eastern Oklahoma. 

Later in the night another shortwave trough will drop southeast
out of the northern Plains and into the Missouri Valley region.
Its proximity may encourage convective development as far
southwest as north-central through eastern Oklahoma. 

In a fairly neutral height environment with northwesterly flow, we
kept low probabilities in from Friday through Saturday. Better
chances may arrive late Saturday night into Sunday as medium range
guidance has been consistent in showing an amplified and fairly
strong but increasingly closed off system traversing the central
Plains then. There may be a minimum in precip coverage Monday and
Tuesday in its wake, followed by an amplifying upper flow pattern
and strengthening increasingly perturbed northwesterly flow by the
middle of next week. This may bring above normal rain chances
relative to climatology once again. 

Temperature wise, we made some adjustments to the model
consensus/blends for today and tomorrow. Both days will likely 
see pockets of lower temperatures than indicated in most models 
given saturated ground limiting surface heating. For OKC we're 
~3-4 degrees below MET/MAV guidance today (upper 80s are 
expected). 

Current model progs for RH may be too optimistic tomorrow morning
for areas with saturated ground, and we could see some fog. 
Although, the warm advection regime and/or approaching MCS may
bring clouds and winds may be just high enough for turbulent
mixing limiting this potential. If confidence grows we'll add fog
to the forecast in later updates. 

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  89  72 /  10  20  20  20 
Hobart OK         92  73  96  75 /  10  20  20  20 
Wichita Falls TX  96  75  97  76 /  10  20  10  20 
Gage OK           88  68  93  68 /  10  40  20  20 
Ponca City OK     87  68  89  71 /  10  10  20  40 
Durant OK         91  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/12

Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #665
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 03:20:31

768 
AWUS01 KWNH 150820
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-151400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0665
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...eastern OK, northwest AR, southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150818Z - 151400Z

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for training convection, from
eastern OK into northwestern AR and southern MO, will evolve by
11Z. The potential exists for 2-4 inches of rain by 14Z, locally
higher, which could cause flash flooding, especially if overlap
occurs with heavy rainfall from Tuesday morning near the central
OK/AR border.

DISCUSSION...A complex evolution of storm-scale features has
evolved over the past few hours from the southern Plains into the
Ozarks. At least 3 meso-gamma scale convectively induced
circulations were noted from east-central OK into southwest MO at
08Z, each associated with ongoing clusters of convection and 0.5
to 1.0 in/hr rain rates per area dual-pol estimates. There were
also locally enhanced areas of upper level diffluence/divergence
tied to these storm-scale features, out ahead of a more broadly
defined upper level trough axis that extended from northeast MO
into southwest OK. Precipitable water values varied from 1.7 to
2.0 inches per recent GPS observations from northeastern OK into
southern MO/northern AR amid MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg per the 07Z
SPC mesoanalysis page and 06Z sounding from LMN.

Given existing storm motions of 20-30 kt toward the
east-northeast, over time, confluent 850-700 mb flow of 25-35 kt
beneath diffluent/divergent upper levels should help to focus a
couple of areas of training convection from eastern OK/western AR
into southern MO with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. Instability
across the entire region is a bit of an unknown, but given the
moisture present, only weak instability need be present to support
heavy rainfall given enough dynamic forcing from factors mentioned
above. There is good support from the 00Z hi-res models as well as
recent runs of the HRRR for this scenario, with the HRRR focusing
3-6 inches near Fort Smith. Flash flooding will be possible,
especially given possible overlap with 2-4 inches of rain which
fell in the vicinity of the central OK/AR border (including Fort
Smith) since early Tuesday.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38169067 37838946 37008919 36798947 36419008 
            35889126 35269235 34859402 34809544 34969607 
            35479660 36239649 36629510 37069435 37909279 
            

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 15, 7:30z for portions of OUN
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 02:31:13

150 
WUUS03 KWNS 150731
PTSDY3

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

VALID TIME 171200Z - 181200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... ANY SEVERE ...

0.05   35128199 34218334 33808500 33398900 33389269 33419591
       33579842 34469940 35399894 35729794 36139298 36328939
       36678635 37018432 37398208 36458154 35128199
0.05   38457429 37707753 38427868 42587565 44187321 44197105
       43556812
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... CATEGORICAL ...

MRGL   35769768 36049385 36299008 36608707 37058417 37418216
       36538160 35068205 34188335 33718569 33428895 33389261
       33419608 33549846 34499936 35369898 35769768
MRGL   38457439 37677740 38437872 42437568 44097355 44237126
       43556812
TSTM   29931357 31951261 33161231 34251318 37141457 39981537
       42811768 44991790 47111662 48671661 50771741 99999999
       50521156 48070992 45920779 45310661 44360425 43080367
       40390171 37850011 37639806 39889556 40639341 41459049
       42948855 43518674 43608527 43718342 44358155 45557986
       46797790 99999999 46287174 44326688 99999999 27939588
       28749656 29719667 30989585 31819607 32619748 32749927
       32810075 32870279 32010407 30800382 29860399 29310455
       28580518

&&
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
OKC 20 E FYV 40 SSE POF 20 E CKV LOZ 55 W BLF 45 E TRI 10 NNW SPA 15
N AHN 15 NE ANB 30 WSW CBM 15 NE ELD 40 WSW PRX 30 S SPS 10 SSW LTS
15 E CSM 25 N OKC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
SBY 15 NNW RIC 15 NE SHD 20 NE BGM 35 SW BTV MWN 65 SSE BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 200 SSE YUM 70 S GBN
25 SW PHX 50 WSW PRC 35 S P38 45 NE P68 20 NNE REO 10 NNW BKE 35 NE
PUW 85 NNE GEG 185 NNE OMK ...CONT... 135 NNE CTB 35 SSW HVR 35 ENE
BIL 40 NNE SHR 65 WNW RAP 35 WNW CDR 10 SSW IML 10 NW DDC 30 SSW HUT
15 S FNB 25 E LWD MLI 35 W MKE 35 NW MKG 50 NNE GRR 20 WSW BAX 80
ENE BAX 185 ENE APN 195 NW MSS ...CONT... 100 NNE EFK 40 S EPM
...CONT... 60 SSE PSX 20 W PSX 60 NNE VCT 30 NW UTS 25 SE CRS 15 SSW
FTW 35 NE ABI 60 NE BGS 30 ENE HOB 25 SSE CNM 30 NNE MRF 35 S MRF 80
SSW MRF 140 SSW MRF.

OUN issues SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman, northwestern Wichita and northeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 245 AM CDT.
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 02:06:38

698 
WWUS84 KOUN 150706
SPSOUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
206 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018
 
OKZ037-TXZ085-086-150745-
Tillman OK-Wichita TX-Wilbarger TX-
206 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman...
northwestern Wichita and northeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 245 AM
CDT....

AT 203 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles northeast of Fargo to 3 miles north of Oklaunion, moving
southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3419 9928 3434 9923 3434 9919 3415 9882
      3397 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 313DEG 19KT 3433 9923 3419 9914 

$$

WR

WICHITA FALLS Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 96 Low: 72 Precip: 0.02 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 01:43:50

970 
CDUS44 KOUN 150643 RRA
CLISPS

OUNCLISPS 000
TTAA00 KOUN 150635


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
135 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018


................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         96    209 PM 107    1930  97     -1       90       
  MINIMUM         72    617 AM  63    2004  72      0       70       
  AVERAGE         84                        85     -1       80      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.02          3.65 2005   0.07  -0.05     0.87    
  MONTH TO DATE    4.81                      1.06   3.75     2.70    
  SINCE JUN 1      6.07                      6.80  -0.73     8.30    
  SINCE JAN 1     17.48                     18.29  -0.81    18.62    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.0    MM   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUN 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         1     -1        0       
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       19                        20     -1       15       
  MONTH TO DATE  262                       280    -18      229       
  SINCE JUN 1   1560                      1317    243     1245       
  SINCE JAN 1   2012                      1636    376     1594       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    22   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SE (150)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    28   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SE (150)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    11.2                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  THUNDERSTORM                                                       
  LIGHT RAIN                                                         

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    93           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     46           200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    70                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   97       109      1930                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   72        58      1992                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   656 AM CDT   SUNSET   821 PM CDT   
AUGUST 16 2018........SUNRISE   656 AM CDT   SUNSET   819 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Aug 14 Climate Report: High: 84 Low: 66 Precip: 5.06 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 01:43:19

636 
CDUS44 KOUN 150643
CLIOKC

OUNCLIOKC 000
TTAA00 KOUN 150635


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
135 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018


................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 14 2018...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2018


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         84   1249 PM 106    1956  94    -10       87       
  MINIMUM         66    703 PM  60    2004  72     -6       70       
                                      1967                          
  AVERAGE         75                        83     -8       79      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        5.06R         1.93 1989   0.10   4.96     0.05    
  MONTH TO DATE    8.58                      1.49   7.09     3.43    
  SINCE JUN 1     16.87                      9.35   7.52     4.85    
  SINCE JAN 1     26.89                     23.10   3.79    19.51    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.0    MM   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUN 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         1     -1        0       
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       10                        18     -8       14       
  MONTH TO DATE  183                       258    -75      178       
  SINCE JUN 1   1167                      1207    -40     1134       
  SINCE JAN 1   1493                      1457     36     1359       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    40   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (20)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    52   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NE (30)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    10.2                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  THUNDERSTORM                                                       
  HEAVY RAIN                                                         
  RAIN                                                               
  LIGHT RAIN                                                         
  HAIL                                                               
  FOG                                                                
  FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE                                       
  HAZE                                                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     74          1200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    87                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   94       107      1956                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   72        59      1992                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
AUGUST 15 2018........SUNRISE   650 AM CDT   SUNSET   819 PM CDT   
AUGUST 16 2018........SUNRISE   651 AM CDT   SUNSET   818 PM CDT   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

OUN issues SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman, southeastern Jackson and northeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 215 AM CDT.
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 01:29:24

828 
WWUS84 KOUN 150629
SPSOUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
129 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018
 
OKZ036-037-TXZ085-150715-
Tillman OK-Jackson OK-Wilbarger TX-
129 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman...
southeastern Jackson and northeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 215 AM
CDT....

AT 128 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Fargo, moving southeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels... 
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3446 9942 3453 9914 3427 9884 3421 9894
      3421 9895 3420 9895 3415 9903 3412 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 330DEG 11KT 3438 9920 

$$

WR

OUN continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman [OK] and Wilbarger [TX] till 1:30 AM CDT
Posted on Wednesday August 15, 2018, 01:12:04

520 
WWUS54 KOUN 150611
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
111 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

OKC065-075-141-TXC487-150630-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0543.000000T0000Z-180815T0630Z/
Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Wilbarger TX-
111 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTIES...

At 111 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Manitou to 5 miles west of Frederick to 6 miles
southeast of Elmer, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Frederick, Snyder, Tipton, Olustee, Manitou, Elmer, Headrick,
Humphreys, Altus Air Force Base and Hess.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 9882 3428 9896 3434 9935 3459 9949
      3465 9934 3469 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 331DEG 17KT 3453 9897 3438 9911 3439 9930 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WR