No Warnings, Watches, or Advisories

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DALLAS FORT WORTH Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 50 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Wednesday January 16, 2019, 00:48:32

746 
CDUS44 KFWD 160648
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
1247 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         50    415 PM  80    1914  56     -6       59       
                                      1901                          
  MINIMUM         36    123 AM  11    1905  35      1       30       
  AVERAGE         43                        46     -3       45      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          3.16 2017   0.06  -0.06      T      
  MONTH TO DATE    1.55                      0.93   0.62     0.18    
  SINCE DEC 1      6.10                      3.48   2.62     4.74    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.55                      0.93   0.62     0.18    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           7.8  1964   0.0    0.0       T      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.1   -0.1       T      
  SINCE DEC 1      0.0                       0.4   -0.4       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.4   -0.4       T      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       22                        19      3       20       
  MONTH TO DATE  274                       296    -22      337       
  SINCE DEC 1    781                       854    -73      813       
  SINCE JUL 1   1253                      1208     45     1016       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         4     -4       12       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    14   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (160)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    17   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     7.6                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.9                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    92          1200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     66           200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    79                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   56        81      1935                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   35        11      1930                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   731 AM CST   SUNSET   545 PM CST   
JANUARY 17 2019.......SUNRISE   730 AM CST   SUNSET   546 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$


WACO Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 50 Low: 40 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Wednesday January 16, 2019, 00:48:31

742 
CDUS44 KFWD 160648
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
1247 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         50    509 PM  80    1950  58     -8       63       
                                      1907                          
  MINIMUM         40   1241 AM  17    1905  36      4       31       
  AVERAGE         45                        47     -2       47      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          0.75 2007   0.07  -0.07     0.15    
  MONTH TO DATE    3.61                      0.96   2.65     0.20    
  SINCE DEC 1      8.34                      3.71   4.63     1.98    
  SINCE JAN 1      3.61                      0.96   2.65     0.20    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           1.0  1964   0.0    0.0       T      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.1   -0.1       T      
  SINCE DEC 1      0.0                       0.1   -0.1       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.2   -0.2       T      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       20                        18      2       18       
  MONTH TO DATE  270                       275     -5      337       
  SINCE DEC 1    751                       799    -48      861       
  SINCE JUL 1   1192                      1127     65     1102       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         5     -5        9       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    14   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.7                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                              
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  FOG                                                                
  HAZE                                                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    96          1100 PM                                     
 LOWEST     66          1200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    81                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   58        84      1943                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   36        15      2018                    
                                             1930                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   729 AM CST   SUNSET   549 PM CST   
JANUARY 17 2019.......SUNRISE   728 AM CST   SUNSET   550 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$


The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Convective Risk at Jan 16, 6:22z for portions of FWD
Posted on Wednesday January 16, 2019, 00:23:05

089 
WUUS03 KWNS 160623
PTSDY3

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019

VALID TIME 181200Z - 191200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... ANY SEVERE ...

0.05   33729473 32739434 30559560 29819689 29589806 29999956
       30749956 32589852 33519793 34139737 34339639 34359560
       33729473
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... CATEGORICAL ...

MRGL   32739438 30589563 29789700 29549805 29969948 30679963
       33549801 34169741 34369643 34319552 33729481 32739438
TSTM   28299588 28029841 28610011 29380131 30820217 32790163
       36060114 37239893 38109392 37799123 36899012 34988830
       34368825 33648879 33358957 32799074 31859239 30329382
       29289452 28729506 28299588 99999999 32741090 33881158
       35421129 36450747 35950576 34580471 33150501 32500634
       32240809 32240978 32741090

&&
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
GGG 15 SW UTS 55 SE AUS 10 S BAZ 40 SSE JCT 15 NE JCT 40 SE SPS 25
WSW ADM 30 N DUA 40 SSE MLC 35 SW DEQ 30 NE GGG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PSX 30 NW ALI
55 WNW COT 25 W DRT 45 E FST 40 N BGS 30 NNE BGD 20 WSW P28 45 SSW
SZL 35 SE VIH 20 ENE POF 40 WNW MSL 30 ENE TUP 20 W CBM 30 ESE GWO
50 SSE GLH 30 N ESF 30 NNE BPT 15 ESE GLS 35 SE LBX 40 SE PSX
...CONT... 45 N TUS 40 NE PHX 30 NE FLG 40 NW 4SL 30 NE SAF 65 ENE
4CR 30 WSW ROW 30 SSW ALM 20 W DMN 45 SSW SAD 45 N TUS.

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 11:37 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 23:37:11

225 
FXUS64 KFWD 160537
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1137 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Nighttime microphysics RGB imagery reveals a sharp back edge to 
the expansive deck of MVFR stratus which is currently approaching
the western Metroplex (AFW, FTW) TAF sites as drier air is being 
advected eastward on veered 900 mb flow. While this back edge may
clear the western sites shortly, additional warm advection in the
950-850 mb layer is currently materializing to the southwest, and
we've seen a recent re-development of splotchy cloud cover as a 
result. We'll move the initial MVFR cigs at FTW and AFW into TEMPO
groups for the next few hours to indicate a (brief) improvement 
in conditions, but anticipate that additional low cloud cover will
fill in here overnight. Across the immediate Metroplex sites,
think the threat for widespread fog still remains fairly low with
rather stout flow noted just off the surface, but if skies clear
for an appreciable amount of time before re-developing, then some
4-6SM BR conditions would be possible. Conditions should gradually
improve through the morning/early-afternoon hours and think that
VFR should return by 16/20-21z or so as low-level moisture is
carried just east of the immediate Metro. This reprieve may be
short-lived, however, as the next surge of moisture occurs in
advance of an approaching area of low pressure. 

At Waco, cigs are presently VFR, but the next batch of moisture is
swiftly approaching from the southwest. Anticipate a combination
of MVFR cigs and vsbys through much of the overnight with a brief
a period of IFR possible towards daybreak on Wednesday. Based on
the orientation of the low-level flow, it looks like MVFR cloud
cover may hang on through most of the day on Wednesday as moisture
remains trapped under a notable lingering subsidence inversion.
MVFR/IFR cigs and perhaps some BR should build back across the
Waco airfield early Wednesday evening as a 35 kt low-level jet
gets cranking ahead of the next wave of low pressure. 

Carlaw

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 902 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
Low cloud cover remains entrenched across much of North and parts
of Central Texas this evening, although clearing has been noted 
to the west of US-281 as drier low-level air is filtering in on 
veering southwesterly 950-900 mb winds. Some temporary clearing 
may take place along the I-35 corridor towards or just after 
midnight as a result, but additional low cloud cover is expected 
to develop towards sunrise. Overall, think the fog potential 
remains fairly low tonight, even with some clearing west of I-35 
as winds just off the deck look to remain in the 20-25 kt range. 
We'll keep an eye on trends, but this potential doesn't look 
widespread enough to warrant an inclusion in the worded forecast 
at this time. Updated products have been transmitted. 

Carlaw

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Thru Tonight/

Mainly zonal flow remains across North Texas this afternoon, 
along with a consistent mid and high level cloud deck. 
Temperatures this afternoon have struggled to reach 50 across 
eastern zones,and only into the low 50s further west. As clouds 
remain in place into the evening and overnight, winds will remain 
around 5 to 10 knots as the weak surface low over the Panhandles 
remains and high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi 
River valley strengthens slightly. Expect that as low level 
moisture increases from south to north across North Texas, the 
stratus deck will remain and lower throughout the night. 
Confidence is low, but patchy fog could develop around sunrise, 
but suspect with both surface winds and 850mb winds remaining 
elevated, predominantly stratus is expected.

Elsenheimer

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Wednesday onward/

Surface analysis this morning shows a vast area of high pressure
stretching nearly coast-to-coast. This continental polar air mass
is centered over southwestern Wyoming in the form of a 1036 mb
high (Fort Bridger, WY has struggled to get above 0 F this
afternoon). The axis of the high is stretched out to the southeast
into the Mississippi Delta region. This surface high should
continue to ease eastward, with winds already beginning to turn
more southerly across North and Central Texas. Another noteworthy
feature on surface analysis is the continental Arctic air mass
over the Laurentian Plateau. The edge of this Arctic air mass is
demarcated by a stationary front roughly along the International
Border, with a surface low located over southwestern Ontario. At
the upper-levels, a highly amplified ridge along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains is noted. This ridge should keep the Arctic air
confined to Canada and the north-central CONUS for the next day or
so. Finally, an upper-level trough axis is noted above the
California Central Valley.

During the next 24-36 hours, ridging should continue over much of
the interior CONUS, but a weak shortwave trough may sneak in 
south of this ridge. This shortwave trough combined with a weak
surface cold front should provide enough ascent to keep cloud 
cover abundant through Thursday, and perhaps even lead to a slight
chance of some drizzle or light rain over our far southern 
counties late Wednesday where the most low- level moisture will be
present. Any rainfall accumulations will be light, and advertised
QPFs are less than one-tenth of an inch. With regards to 
temperatures, the cooler solution from the NAM was preferred over 
the warmer GFS. The reason for this is that the GFS has been 
insistent that cloud cover will move out, but a quick look out the
window and at visible satellite loops show that thick cloud cover
remains entrenched across the region. Some patches of blue sky 
may appear on Wednesday and Thursday, but for most of our forecast
area (especially the farther north and east one goes), expect the
next couple of days to be mostly cloudy to overcast.

Big changes will commence as we head into Friday. The West Coast
trough will amplify and dig into the Rocky Mountains. This trough
will act to dislodge the Arctic air mass over the Laurentian
Plateau, driving it south across the Great Plains. As this trough
swings through the Southern Plains along with an associated PV
anomaly, large-scale ascent indicated by large Q-vector
convergence will increase ahead of the surging Arctic air mass.
The GFS indicates some instability with SBCAPE values approaching
1,000 J/kg, but the GFS has also been on the warmer side of the
model guidance. Given that its temperatures are likely too high 
(as mentioned in the previous paragraph), these CAPE values are 
likely too high as well. Still, some thunder will be possible if 
not likely the farther south and east one goes, but the severe 
weather potential appears minimal. As for the heavy rain 
potential, the fast-moving nature of the upper-level trough should
minimize the heavy rain threat, but given recent heavy rains and 
dormant vegetation, any areas that receive locally heavy rainfall 
could see some minor ponding of water.

Saturday morning, THE cold front will arrive. An Arctic cold front
will slam into our northwestern counties early Saturday morning
and clear our southeastern counties by Saturday afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds are forecast behind the cold front, with 20-25
knot sustained winds looking likely, along with gusts in excess of
30 knots. If this forecast holds (and there does not appear to be
any major reason why it would not), a Wind Advisory would almost
certainly need to be issued 24 hours out during the Friday day 
shift (criteria is sustained winds of more than 25 MPH, or 22 
knots, for at least two hours). Given the very strong cold air 
advection behind the cold front, high temperatures will be reached
at most locations during the morning hours (in some cases, 
possibly even before daybreak), with temperatures falling 
throughout the day. Some light precipitation may linger behind the
cold front, but it appears that this precipitation should be well
out of our area by the time temperatures fall below freezing late
Saturday evening. Perhaps there will be a very narrow window in 
our far northeastern counties for a momentary transition to light 
wintry mix, but even there, the chances are low, and impacts would
be negligible. Frozen precipitation has been kept out of the 
official forecast given the very low probabilities and even lower 
probabilities that there would be meaningful impacts.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the colder mornings in a while
for North and Central Texas with lows forecast to be in the 20s
for all of our forecast area, with lows possibly dropping into the
upper teens along the Red River. Northerly winds of 15-20 MPH will
likely still be present come Sunday morning as well, which will
lead to wind chills well down into the teens for many locations,
with wind chills potentially falling into the single digits along
and north of Interstate 20. Precautions to protect people, plants,
pets, and pipes will need to be taken no later than Saturday for
these very frigid temperatures and wind chills. As a climate note,
records appear safe and sound (the record for January 20 at both
DFW and Waco is 10 F), but with a forecast low of 23 F at DFW
Sunday morning, this would indeed be the coldest temperature of
the 2018-19 winter thus far. At Waco, the forecast low is 25 F,
which would only be the second coldest this season (it was 22 F
back on November 14, 2018), but still quite cold nonetheless. Sunday
Night should be cold as well with lows looking to dip down into 
the 20s areawide once again as skies clear out, allowing for 
excellent radiational cooling. Winds should be on the lighter side
though, which should take a little bit of the edge off, but it 
will still be quite cold.

Temperatures look to rebound to near climatological normals for
mid-January by next week (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s).
Rain chances may increase towards the middle of next week as our
progressive pattern continues, and another upper-level trough
swings into the Great Plains. This next weather-maker is too far 
off to focus on specific impacts at this time, but slight chance 
to chance PoPs were carried areawide to advertise the potential 
for precipitation.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  61  51  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                45  60  51  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               40  57  54  59  44 /   0   0  10   5   0 
Denton              42  61  50  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            43  59  51  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              45  61  52  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             44  58  53  60  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           45  58  54  63  48 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Temple              45  59  50  68  51 /   5   5   5   0   0 
Mineral Wells       43  65  47  58  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/26

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 9:02 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 21:03:00

169 
FXUS64 KFWD 160302 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
902 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.UPDATE...
Low cloud cover remains entrenched across much of North and parts
of Central Texas this evening, although clearing has been noted 
to the west of US-281 as drier low-level air is filtering in on 
veering southwesterly 950-900 mb winds. Some temporary clearing 
may take place along the I-35 corridor towards or just after 
midnight as a result, but additional low cloud cover is expected 
to develop towards sunrise. Overall, think the fog potential 
remains fairly low tonight, even with some clearing west of I-35 
as winds just off the deck look to remain in the 20-25 kt range. 
We'll keep an eye on trends, but this potential doesn't look 
widespread enough to warrant an inclusion in the worded forecast 
at this time. Updated products have been transmitted. 

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 603 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/00z TAFs/

Another rather challenging set of TAFs as the ongoing stratus and
returning moisture continues to confound model guidance. Generally
VFR cigs prevail across the Metroplex at this time, but MVFR cloud
cover around FL020-025 is already trying to invade nearby sites.
The NAM-based statistical output is really the only piece of 
guidance which is handling the near-term trends in any reasonable 
manner, and have closely followed it through the late evening 
hours as a result. Expect that MVFR cigs will steadily fill in 
across the Metroplex this evening as low-level moisture continues 
to slosh eastward. 

After midnight, some of our hi-res guidance indicates that the 
veered WSW-SW flow around 900 mb may push the bulk of the low
cloud cover just east of the I-35 corridor. If this occurs, near-
surface moisture profiles would support the re-development of
reduced vsbys due to BR and/or LIFR cigs towards daybreak on 
Wednesday. For now, confidence in BR/FG is too low to warrant a 
mention in the latest suite of TAFs, but will continue to mention 
cigs flirting with IFR after 16/11z. 

Cigs should gradually lift into the afternoon hours on Wednesday,
and would also expect the lowest clouds to begin to push east of
I-35 as the low-level flow veers. Still, some guidance remains
incredulous that conditions will improve to VFR. Opted to indicate
a somewhat more optimistic forecast in the extended DFW TAF based
on the low-level flow orientation, but we'll re-evaluate this in
future issuances. Overall, similar trends are expected at Waco. 

Carlaw

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Thru Tonight/

Mainly zonal flow remains across North Texas this afternoon, 
along with a consistent mid and high level cloud deck. 
Temperatures this afternoon have struggled to reach 50 across 
eastern zones,and only into the low 50s further west. As clouds 
remain in place into the evening and overnight, winds will remain 
around 5 to 10 knots as the weak surface low over the Panhandles 
remains and high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi 
River valley strengthens slightly. Expect that as low level 
moisture increases from south to north across North Texas, the 
stratus deck will remain and lower throughout the night. 
Confidence is low, but patchy fog could develop around sunrise, 
but suspect with both surface winds and 850mb winds remaining 
elevated, predominantly stratus is expected.

Elsenheimer

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Wednesday onward/

Surface analysis this morning shows a vast area of high pressure
stretching nearly coast-to-coast. This continental polar air mass
is centered over southwestern Wyoming in the form of a 1036 mb
high (Fort Bridger, WY has struggled to get above 0 F this
afternoon). The axis of the high is stretched out to the southeast
into the Mississippi Delta region. This surface high should
continue to ease eastward, with winds already beginning to turn
more southerly across North and Central Texas. Another noteworthy
feature on surface analysis is the continental Arctic air mass
over the Laurentian Plateau. The edge of this Arctic air mass is
demarcated by a stationary front roughly along the International
Border, with a surface low located over southwestern Ontario. At
the upper-levels, a highly amplified ridge along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains is noted. This ridge should keep the Arctic air
confined to Canada and the north-central CONUS for the next day or
so. Finally, an upper-level trough axis is noted above the
California Central Valley.

During the next 24-36 hours, ridging should continue over much of
the interior CONUS, but a weak shortwave trough may sneak in 
south of this ridge. This shortwave trough combined with a weak
surface cold front should provide enough ascent to keep cloud 
cover abundant through Thursday, and perhaps even lead to a slight
chance of some drizzle or light rain over our far southern 
counties late Wednesday where the most low- level moisture will be
present. Any rainfall accumulations will be light, and advertised
QPFs are less than one-tenth of an inch. With regards to 
temperatures, the cooler solution from the NAM was preferred over 
the warmer GFS. The reason for this is that the GFS has been 
insistent that cloud cover will move out, but a quick look out the
window and at visible satellite loops show that thick cloud cover
remains entrenched across the region. Some patches of blue sky 
may appear on Wednesday and Thursday, but for most of our forecast
area (especially the farther north and east one goes), expect the
next couple of days to be mostly cloudy to overcast.

Big changes will commence as we head into Friday. The West Coast
trough will amplify and dig into the Rocky Mountains. This trough
will act to dislodge the Arctic air mass over the Laurentian
Plateau, driving it south across the Great Plains. As this trough
swings through the Southern Plains along with an associated PV
anomaly, large-scale ascent indicated by large Q-vector
convergence will increase ahead of the surging Arctic air mass.
The GFS indicates some instability with SBCAPE values approaching
1,000 J/kg, but the GFS has also been on the warmer side of the
model guidance. Given that its temperatures are likely too high 
(as mentioned in the previous paragraph), these CAPE values are 
likely too high as well. Still, some thunder will be possible if 
not likely the farther south and east one goes, but the severe 
weather potential appears minimal. As for the heavy rain 
potential, the fast-moving nature of the upper-level trough should
minimize the heavy rain threat, but given recent heavy rains and 
dormant vegetation, any areas that receive locally heavy rainfall 
could see some minor ponding of water.

Saturday morning, THE cold front will arrive. An Arctic cold front
will slam into our northwestern counties early Saturday morning
and clear our southeastern counties by Saturday afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds are forecast behind the cold front, with 20-25
knot sustained winds looking likely, along with gusts in excess of
30 knots. If this forecast holds (and there does not appear to be
any major reason why it would not), a Wind Advisory would almost
certainly need to be issued 24 hours out during the Friday day 
shift (criteria is sustained winds of more than 25 MPH, or 22 
knots, for at least two hours). Given the very strong cold air 
advection behind the cold front, high temperatures will be reached
at most locations during the morning hours (in some cases, 
possibly even before daybreak), with temperatures falling 
throughout the day. Some light precipitation may linger behind the
cold front, but it appears that this precipitation should be well
out of our area by the time temperatures fall below freezing late
Saturday evening. Perhaps there will be a very narrow window in 
our far northeastern counties for a momentary transition to light 
wintry mix, but even there, the chances are low, and impacts would
be negligible. Frozen precipitation has been kept out of the 
official forecast given the very low probabilities and even lower 
probabilities that there would be meaningful impacts.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the colder mornings in a while
for North and Central Texas with lows forecast to be in the 20s
for all of our forecast area, with lows possibly dropping into the
upper teens along the Red River. Northerly winds of 15-20 MPH will
likely still be present come Sunday morning as well, which will
lead to wind chills well down into the teens for many locations,
with wind chills potentially falling into the single digits along
and north of Interstate 20. Precautions to protect people, plants,
pets, and pipes will need to be taken no later than Saturday for
these very frigid temperatures and wind chills. As a climate note,
records appear safe and sound (the record for January 20 at both
DFW and Waco is 10 F), but with a forecast low of 23 F at DFW
Sunday morning, this would indeed be the coldest temperature of
the 2018-19 winter thus far. At Waco, the forecast low is 25 F,
which would only be the second coldest this season (it was 22 F
back on November 14, 2018), but still quite cold nonetheless. Sunday
Night should be cold as well with lows looking to dip down into 
the 20s areawide once again as skies clear out, allowing for 
excellent radiational cooling. Winds should be on the lighter side
though, which should take a little bit of the edge off, but it 
will still be quite cold.

Temperatures look to rebound to near climatological normals for
mid-January by next week (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s).
Rain chances may increase towards the middle of next week as our
progressive pattern continues, and another upper-level trough
swings into the Great Plains. This next weather-maker is too far 
off to focus on specific impacts at this time, but slight chance 
to chance PoPs were carried areawide to advertise the potential 
for precipitation.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  61  51  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                45  60  51  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               40  57  54  59  44 /   0   0  10   5   0 
Denton              42  61  50  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            43  59  51  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              45  61  52  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             44  58  53  60  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           45  58  54  63  48 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Temple              45  59  50  68  51 /   5   5   5   0   0 
Mineral Wells       43  65  47  58  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/26

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River near Long Lake (Oakwood) [TX] till Jan 16, 8:00 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 19:08:07

461 
WGUS84 KFWD 160108
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
708 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
   Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 
   Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
   Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC213-349-161308-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0179.000000T0000Z-190116T1912Z/
/TDDT2.2.ER.181227T1923Z.190106T1400Z.190116T0712Z.NO/
708 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0600 PM Tuesday the stage was 33.49 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday after midnight.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$

TXC001-161-289-161308-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0183.000000T0000Z-190117T0200Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181231T1607Z.190107T0600Z.190116T1400Z.NO/
708 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 0630 PM Tuesday the stage was 35.81 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River at Trinidad [TX] till Jan 16, 1:12 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 19:08:07

461 
WGUS84 KFWD 160108
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
708 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
   Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 
   Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
   Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC213-349-161308-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0179.000000T0000Z-190116T1912Z/
/TDDT2.2.ER.181227T1923Z.190106T1400Z.190116T0712Z.NO/
708 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0600 PM Tuesday the stage was 33.49 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday after midnight.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$

TXC001-161-289-161308-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0183.000000T0000Z-190117T0200Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181231T1607Z.190107T0600Z.190116T1400Z.NO/
708 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 0630 PM Tuesday the stage was 35.81 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD continues Flood Warning for South Sulphur River near Cooper [TX] until further notice
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 18:57:12

880 
WGUS84 KFWD 160057
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
  South Sulphur River Near Cooper Affecting Delta and Hopkins 
  Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC119-223-161257-
/O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/COPT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.190109T0030Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
657 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Sulphur River Near Cooper.
* At 0915 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.95 feet.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 18 feet for the next few 
  days.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3337 9567 3341 9556 3341 9549 3330 9548
      3329 9557

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 6:03 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 18:03:40

899 
FXUS64 KFWD 160003 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Another rather challenging set of TAFs as the ongoing stratus and
returning moisture continues to confound model guidance. Generally
VFR cigs prevail across the Metroplex at this time, but MVFR cloud
cover around FL020-025 is already trying to invade nearby sites.
The NAM-based statistical output is really the only piece of 
guidance which is handling the near-term trends in any reasonable 
manner, and have closely followed it through the late evening 
hours as a result. Expect that MVFR cigs will steadily fill in 
across the Metroplex this evening as low-level moisture continues 
to slosh eastward. 

After midnight, some of our hi-res guidance indicates that the 
veered WSW-SW flow around 900 mb may push the bulk of the low
cloud cover just east of the I-35 corridor. If this occurs, near-
surface moisture profiles would support the re-development of
reduced vsbys due to BR and/or LIFR cigs towards daybreak on 
Wednesday. For now, confidence in BR/FG is too low to warrant a 
mention in the latest suite of TAFs, but will continue to mention 
cigs flirting with IFR after 16/11z. 

Cigs should gradually lift into the afternoon hours on Wednesday,
and would also expect the lowest clouds to begin to push east of
I-35 as the low-level flow veers. Still, some guidance remains
incredulous that conditions will improve to VFR. Opted to indicate
a somewhat more optimistic forecast in the extended DFW TAF based
on the low-level flow orientation, but we'll re-evaluate this in
future issuances. Overall, similar trends are expected at Waco. 

Carlaw

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Thru Tonight/

Mainly zonal flow remains across North Texas this afternoon, 
along with a consistent mid and high level cloud deck. 
Temperatures this afternoon have struggled to reach 50 across 
eastern zones,and only into the low 50s further west. As clouds 
remain in place into the evening and overnight, winds will remain 
around 5 to 10 knots as the weak surface low over the Panhandles 
remains and high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi 
River valley strengthens slightly. Expect that as low level 
moisture increases from south to north across North Texas, the 
stratus deck will remain and lower throughout the night. 
Confidence is low, but patchy fog could develop around sunrise, 
but suspect with both surface winds and 850mb winds remaining 
elevated, predominantly stratus is expected.

Elsenheimer

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Wednesday onward/

Surface analysis this morning shows a vast area of high pressure
stretching nearly coast-to-coast. This continental polar air mass
is centered over southwestern Wyoming in the form of a 1036 mb
high (Fort Bridger, WY has struggled to get above 0 F this
afternoon). The axis of the high is stretched out to the southeast
into the Mississippi Delta region. This surface high should
continue to ease eastward, with winds already beginning to turn
more southerly across North and Central Texas. Another noteworthy
feature on surface analysis is the continental Arctic air mass
over the Laurentian Plateau. The edge of this Arctic air mass is
demarcated by a stationary front roughly along the International
Border, with a surface low located over southwestern Ontario. At
the upper-levels, a highly amplified ridge along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains is noted. This ridge should keep the Arctic air
confined to Canada and the north-central CONUS for the next day or
so. Finally, an upper-level trough axis is noted above the
California Central Valley.

During the next 24-36 hours, ridging should continue over much of
the interior CONUS, but a weak shortwave trough may sneak in 
south of this ridge. This shortwave trough combined with a weak
surface cold front should provide enough ascent to keep cloud 
cover abundant through Thursday, and perhaps even lead to a slight
chance of some drizzle or light rain over our far southern 
counties late Wednesday where the most low- level moisture will be
present. Any rainfall accumulations will be light, and advertised
QPFs are less than one-tenth of an inch. With regards to 
temperatures, the cooler solution from the NAM was preferred over 
the warmer GFS. The reason for this is that the GFS has been 
insistent that cloud cover will move out, but a quick look out the
window and at visible satellite loops show that thick cloud cover
remains entrenched across the region. Some patches of blue sky 
may appear on Wednesday and Thursday, but for most of our forecast
area (especially the farther north and east one goes), expect the
next couple of days to be mostly cloudy to overcast.

Big changes will commence as we head into Friday. The West Coast
trough will amplify and dig into the Rocky Mountains. This trough
will act to dislodge the Arctic air mass over the Laurentian
Plateau, driving it south across the Great Plains. As this trough
swings through the Southern Plains along with an associated PV
anomaly, large-scale ascent indicated by large Q-vector
convergence will increase ahead of the surging Arctic air mass.
The GFS indicates some instability with SBCAPE values approaching
1,000 J/kg, but the GFS has also been on the warmer side of the
model guidance. Given that its temperatures are likely too high 
(as mentioned in the previous paragraph), these CAPE values are 
likely too high as well. Still, some thunder will be possible if 
not likely the farther south and east one goes, but the severe 
weather potential appears minimal. As for the heavy rain 
potential, the fast-moving nature of the upper-level trough should
minimize the heavy rain threat, but given recent heavy rains and 
dormant vegetation, any areas that receive locally heavy rainfall 
could see some minor ponding of water.

Saturday morning, THE cold front will arrive. An Arctic cold front
will slam into our northwestern counties early Saturday morning
and clear our southeastern counties by Saturday afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds are forecast behind the cold front, with 20-25
knot sustained winds looking likely, along with gusts in excess of
30 knots. If this forecast holds (and there does not appear to be
any major reason why it would not), a Wind Advisory would almost
certainly need to be issued 24 hours out during the Friday day 
shift (criteria is sustained winds of more than 25 MPH, or 22 
knots, for at least two hours). Given the very strong cold air 
advection behind the cold front, high temperatures will be reached
at most locations during the morning hours (in some cases, 
possibly even before daybreak), with temperatures falling 
throughout the day. Some light precipitation may linger behind the
cold front, but it appears that this precipitation should be well
out of our area by the time temperatures fall below freezing late
Saturday evening. Perhaps there will be a very narrow window in 
our far northeastern counties for a momentary transition to light 
wintry mix, but even there, the chances are low, and impacts would
be negligible. Frozen precipitation has been kept out of the 
official forecast given the very low probabilities and even lower 
probabilities that there would be meaningful impacts.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the colder mornings in a while
for North and Central Texas with lows forecast to be in the 20s
for all of our forecast area, with lows possibly dropping into the
upper teens along the Red River. Northerly winds of 15-20 MPH will
likely still be present come Sunday morning as well, which will
lead to wind chills well down into the teens for many locations,
with wind chills potentially falling into the single digits along
and north of Interstate 20. Precautions to protect people, plants,
pets, and pipes will need to be taken no later than Saturday for
these very frigid temperatures and wind chills. As a climate note,
records appear safe and sound (the record for January 20 at both
DFW and Waco is 10 F), but with a forecast low of 23 F at DFW
Sunday morning, this would indeed be the coldest temperature of
the 2018-19 winter thus far. At Waco, the forecast low is 25 F,
which would only be the second coldest this season (it was 22 F
back on November 14, 2018), but still quite cold nonetheless. Sunday
Night should be cold as well with lows looking to dip down into 
the 20s areawide once again as skies clear out, allowing for 
excellent radiational cooling. Winds should be on the lighter side
though, which should take a little bit of the edge off, but it 
will still be quite cold.

Temperatures look to rebound to near climatological normals for
mid-January by next week (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s).
Rain chances may increase towards the middle of next week as our
progressive pattern continues, and another upper-level trough
swings into the Great Plains. This next weather-maker is too far 
off to focus on specific impacts at this time, but slight chance 
to chance PoPs were carried areawide to advertise the potential 
for precipitation.

Godwin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  61  51  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                43  60  51  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               40  57  54  59  44 /   0   0  10   5   0 
Denton              42  61  50  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            42  59  51  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              44  61  52  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             43  58  53  60  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           43  58  54  63  48 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Temple              43  59  50  68  51 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Mineral Wells       42  65  47  58  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/26

DALLAS FORT WORTH Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 50 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 16:26:41

490 
CDUS44 KFWD 152226
CLIDFW


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
426 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2019


................................... 

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         50    350 PM  80    1914  56     -6       59       
                                      1901                          
  MINIMUM         36    123 AM  11    1905  35      1       30       
  AVERAGE         43                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          3.16 2017   0.06  -0.06      T      
  MONTH TO DATE    1.55                      0.93   0.62     0.18    
  SINCE DEC 1      6.10                      3.48   2.62     4.74    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.55                      0.93   0.62     0.18    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           7.8  1964   0.0    0.0       T      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.1   -0.1       T      
  SINCE DEC 1      0.0                       0.4   -0.4       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.4   -0.4       T      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SE (150)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    14   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SE (150)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.6                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   56        81      1935                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   35        11      1930                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   731 AM CST   SUNSET   544 PM CST   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   731 AM CST   SUNSET   545 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

WACO Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 50 Low: 40 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 16:26:40

489 
CDUS44 KFWD 152226
CLIACT


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                               
426 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2019


................................... 

...THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         50    359 PM  80    1950  58     -8       63       
                                      1907                          
  MINIMUM         40   1241 AM  17    1905  36      4       31       
  AVERAGE         45                                                
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          0.75 2007   0.07  -0.07     0.15    
  MONTH TO DATE    3.61                      0.96   2.65     0.20    
  SINCE DEC 1      8.34                      3.71   4.63     1.98    
  SINCE JAN 1      3.61                      0.96   2.65     0.20    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           1.0  1964   0.0    0.0       T      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.1   -0.1       T      
  SINCE DEC 1      0.0                       0.1   -0.1       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.2   -0.2       T      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (160)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    12   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     3.8                                         




..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   58        84      1943                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   36        15      2018                    
                                             1930                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   729 AM CST   SUNSET   548 PM CST   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   729 AM CST   SUNSET   549 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jan 15, 3:40 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 15:40:26

504 
FLUS44 KFWD 152140
HWOFWD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
340 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
There will be a risk for isolated thunderstorms late Friday and 
Friday Night along and east of a line from Gainesville, to Fort 
Worth, to Lampasas. Isolated thunderstorms may linger into early 
Saturday southeast of a Temple to Athens line in advance of a strong 
cold front. The potential for flash flooding appears low, but minor 
flooding is possible wherever heavier downpours occur.

Very cold conditions are expected Saturday Night and Sunday Night 
with a hard freeze expected north of Interstate 20. In addition, wind
chills in the single digits and teens are expected Saturday night 
into Sunday morning across the entire region. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 3:27 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 15:27:16

775 
FXUS64 KFWD 152127
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Thru Tonight/

Mainly zonal flow remains across North Texas this afternoon, 
along with a consistent mid and high level cloud deck. 
Temperatures this afternoon have struggled to reach 50 across 
eastern zones,and only into the low 50s further west. As clouds 
remain in place into the evening and overnight, winds will remain 
around 5 to 10 knots as the weak surface low over the Panhandles 
remains and high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi 
River valley strengthens slightly. Expect that as low level 
moisture increases from south to north across North Texas, the 
stratus deck will remain and lower throughout the night. 
Confidence is low, but patchy fog could develop around sunrise, 
but suspect with both surface winds and 850mb winds remaining 
elevated, predominantly stratus is expected.

Elsenheimer

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday onward/

Surface analysis this morning shows a vast area of high pressure
stretching nearly coast-to-coast. This continental polar air mass
is centered over southwestern Wyoming in the form of a 1036 mb
high (Fort Bridger, WY has struggled to get above 0 F this
afternoon). The axis of the high is stretched out to the southeast
into the Mississippi Delta region. This surface high should
continue to ease eastward, with winds already beginning to turn
more southerly across North and Central Texas. Another noteworthy
feature on surface analysis is the continental Arctic air mass
over the Laurentian Plateau. The edge of this Arctic air mass is
demarcated by a stationary front roughly along the International
Border, with a surface low located over southwestern Ontario. At
the upper-levels, a highly amplified ridge along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains is noted. This ridge should keep the Arctic air
confined to Canada and the north-central CONUS for the next day or
so. Finally, an upper-level trough axis is noted above the
California Central Valley.

During the next 24-36 hours, ridging should continue over much of
the interior CONUS, but a weak shortwave trough may sneak in 
south of this ridge. This shortwave trough combined with a weak
surface cold front should provide enough ascent to keep cloud 
cover abundant through Thursday, and perhaps even lead to a slight
chance of some drizzle or light rain over our far southern 
counties late Wednesday where the most low- level moisture will be
present. Any rainfall accumulations will be light, and advertised
QPFs are less than one-tenth of an inch. With regards to 
temperatures, the cooler solution from the NAM was preferred over 
the warmer GFS. The reason for this is that the GFS has been 
insistent that cloud cover will move out, but a quick look out the
window and at visible satellite loops show that thick cloud cover
remains entrenched across the region. Some patches of blue sky 
may appear on Wednesday and Thursday, but for most of our forecast
area (especially the farther north and east one goes), expect the
next couple of days to be mostly cloudy to overcast.

Big changes will commence as we head into Friday. The West Coast
trough will amplify and dig into the Rocky Mountains. This trough
will act to dislodge the Arctic air mass over the Laurentian
Plateau, driving it south across the Great Plains. As this trough
swings through the Southern Plains along with an associated PV
anomaly, large-scale ascent indicated by large Q-vector
convergence will increase ahead of the surging Arctic air mass.
The GFS indicates some instability with SBCAPE values approaching
1,000 J/kg, but the GFS has also been on the warmer side of the
model guidance. Given that its temperatures are likely too high 
(as mentioned in the previous paragraph), these CAPE values are 
likely too high as well. Still, some thunder will be possible if 
not likely the farther south and east one goes, but the severe 
weather potential appears minimal. As for the heavy rain 
potential, the fast-moving nature of the upper-level trough should
minimize the heavy rain threat, but given recent heavy rains and 
dormant vegetation, any areas that receive locally heavy rainfall 
could see some minor ponding of water.

Saturday morning, THE cold front will arrive. An Arctic cold front
will slam into our northwestern counties early Saturday morning
and clear our southeastern counties by Saturday afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds are forecast behind the cold front, with 20-25
knot sustained winds looking likely, along with gusts in excess of
30 knots. If this forecast holds (and there does not appear to be
any major reason why it would not), a Wind Advisory would almost
certainly need to be issued 24 hours out during the Friday day 
shift (criteria is sustained winds of more than 25 MPH, or 22 
knots, for at least two hours). Given the very strong cold air 
advection behind the cold front, high temperatures will be reached
at most locations during the morning hours (in some cases, 
possibly even before daybreak), with temperatures falling 
throughout the day. Some light precipitation may linger behind the
cold front, but it appears that this precipitation should be well
out of our area by the time temperatures fall below freezing late
Saturday evening. Perhaps there will be a very narrow window in 
our far northeastern counties for a momentary transition to light 
wintry mix, but even there, the chances are low, and impacts would
be negligible. Frozen precipitation has been kept out of the 
official forecast given the very low probabilities and even lower 
probabilities that there would be meaningful impacts.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the colder mornings in a while
for North and Central Texas with lows forecast to be in the 20s
for all of our forecast area, with lows possibly dropping into the
upper teens along the Red River. Northerly winds of 15-20 MPH will
likely still be present come Sunday morning as well, which will
lead to wind chills well down into the teens for many locations,
with wind chills potentially falling into the single digits along
and north of Interstate 20. Precautions to protect people, plants,
pets, and pipes will need to be taken no later than Saturday for
these very frigid temperatures and wind chills. As a climate note,
records appear safe and sound (the record for January 20 at both
DFW and Waco is 10 F), but with a forecast low of 23 F at DFW
Sunday morning, this would indeed be the coldest temperature of
the 2018-19 winter thus far. At Waco, the forecast low is 25 F,
which would only be the second coldest this season (it was 22 F
back on November 14, 2018), but still quite cold nonetheless. Sunday
Night should be cold as well with lows looking to dip down into 
the 20s areawide once again as skies clear out, allowing for 
excellent radiational cooling. Winds should be on the lighter side
though, which should take a little bit of the edge off, but it 
will still be quite cold.

Temperatures look to rebound to near climatological normals for
mid-January by next week (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s).
Rain chances may increase towards the middle of next week as our
progressive pattern continues, and another upper-level trough
swings into the Great Plains. This next weather-maker is too far 
off to focus on specific impacts at this time, but slight chance 
to chance PoPs were carried areawide to advertise the potential 
for precipitation.

Godwin

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1158 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
Cloud cover continues across north Texas, though bases are
expected to remain VFR and in the BKN/OVC040-060 foot range for
the day. Late tonight, guidance continues to indicate that 
ceilings will lower by early Wednesday morning into the IFR range.
Confidence is medium to high that ceilings will be at or lower 
than 1000 feet for a good portion of the morning. Winds should 
remain around 6 to 9 knots overnight and prevent much in the way 
of fog from forming. By late morning, winds increase out of the 
south to 10-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots, and ceilings will 
gradually come up at least MVFR by early afternoon, and VFR by
mid-day.

Elsenheimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  61  51  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                43  60  51  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               40  57  54  59  44 /   0   0  10   5   0 
Denton              42  61  50  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            42  59  51  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              44  61  52  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             43  58  53  60  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           43  58  54  63  48 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Temple              43  59  50  68  51 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Mineral Wells       42  65  47  58  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

/37

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River near Long Lake (Oakwood) [TX] till Jan 16, 6:00 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 13:14:58

887 
WGUS84 KFWD 151914
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
   Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 
   Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
   Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC213-349-160713-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0179.000000T0000Z-190116T2000Z/
/TDDT2.2.ER.181227T1923Z.190106T1400Z.190116T0800Z.NO/
114 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0100 PM Tuesday the stage was 33.63 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday after midnight.
* At 33 feet, minor flooding will occur along the right bank of river.
  Low woodlands for one mile along right bank will begin to flood.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$

TXC001-161-289-160713-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0183.000000T0000Z-190117T0000Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181231T1607Z.190107T0600Z.190116T1200Z.NO/
114 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 1230 PM Tuesday the stage was 36.29 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River at Trinidad [TX] till Jan 16, 2:00 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 13:14:58

887 
WGUS84 KFWD 151914
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
   Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 
   Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) Affecting Anderson...
   Freestone and Leon Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC213-349-160713-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0179.000000T0000Z-190116T2000Z/
/TDDT2.2.ER.181227T1923Z.190106T1400Z.190116T0800Z.NO/
114 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0100 PM Tuesday the stage was 33.63 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday after midnight.
* At 33 feet, minor flooding will occur along the right bank of river.
  Low woodlands for one mile along right bank will begin to flood.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626

$$

TXC001-161-289-160713-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0183.000000T0000Z-190117T0000Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.181231T1607Z.190107T0600Z.190116T1200Z.NO/
114 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* At 1230 PM Tuesday the stage was 36.29 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and 
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 11:58 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 11:58:43

803 
FXUS64 KFWD 151758
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1158 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.AVIATION...
Cloud cover continues across north Texas, though bases are
expected to remain VFR and in the BKN/OVC040-060 foot range for
the day. Late tonight, guidance continues to indicate that 
ceilings will lower by early Wednesday morning into the IFR range.
Confidence is medium to high that ceilings will be at or lower 
than 1000 feet for a good portion of the morning. Winds should 
remain around 6 to 9 knots overnight and prevent much in the way 
of fog from forming. By late morning, winds increase out of the 
south to 10-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots, and ceilings will 
gradually come up at least MVFR by early afternoon, and VFR by
mid-day.

Elsenheimer

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 1103 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
GOES 16 imagery this morning continues to indicate extensive cloud
cover across the region, outside of a small area of clearing over
far east Texas. As a result, made some minor changes to this 
afternoon's sky cover forecast to keep cloudy conditions for most 
of the region. Also kept max temperatures pretty close to the 
previous forecast, with just a few degrees cooler across the 
northwestern zones with the forecast increase in cloud cover. No 
other changes to the forecast.

Elsenheimer

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 358 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

Weak ridging aloft will bring slightly warmer conditions and 
generally quiet weather to North and Central Texas for the next 24
hours. At the surface, light return flow has commenced as high 
pressure has shifted east into Louisiana. A stratus deck continues
to spread slowly northeast, and should cover most of the area by 
sunrise. That said, eastern and northeastern counties have 
remained clear through most of the night, allowing temperatures to
fall to or below freezing. Light freezing fog in these areas 
could produce a thin glaze on elevated surfaces such as 
windshields, but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

Despite the widespread low cloud cover, temperatures should still
be able to climb into the lower 50s this afternoon due to the 
presence of the weak ridge aloft and warm air advection near the 
surface. Southerly low level flow and subsequent warm/moist 
advection will increase tonight as the pressure gradient tightens,
leading to patchy fog and drizzle formation across the region. 
Fortunately, all locations will remain above freezing, with 
overnight low temperatures mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 358 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Wednesday Through Monday/

A shortwave disturbance over the Four Corners is expected to
dampen the shortwave upper ridge over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday. This system will induce fairly strong low level warm 
advection just above the surface. In addition, westerly 925mb flow
20-30 knots within an increasingly moist layer just below a
frontal inversion is expected to assist in the formation of low
clouds and some patchy fog/drizzle, especially along and west of
Interstate 35/35E. Some isolated areas of thicker fog or heavier
drizzle could result in very localized visibility reductions for 
the Wednesday morning commute. Conditions should improve by 
Wednesday afternoon with warming at the surface, especially across
the western half of the CWA where low clouds should mix out 
readily with highs warming well into the 60s to near 70 degrees. I
did cool down highs more into the lower 60s further east where 
low clouds and weak low level isentropic ascent holds. Definitely 
a tricky high temperature forecast and it's quite possible these 
values may need to be lowered in future forecasts. 

Breezy southerly winds and a slow decrease of clouds from west to
east Wednesday night into Thursday morning will likely result in
more mild conditions than seen in recent days. A confluent and
fast mid-level flow regime is expected Thursday and Thursday
night. A more potent northern stream shortwave will track east 
across Kansas and Oklahoma and into the Ozarks during the day, 
which in turn will pull a weak cold front through the area. This 
front will likely not make it through Central Texas until late in 
the day, so a broad range of high temperatures are expected with 
highs around 60s across the immediate Red River Valley to the 
lower 70s south of the Highway 84 corridor in Central Texas. 
Richer moisture will remain across South-Central and Southeast 
Texas, thus we do not expect any rainfall with this system or 
cold front. West-northwest winds will quickly become light south- 
southeast Thursday night, as a weak surface high quickly transits 
east of the area and mid level height falls over the Southern 
Rockies induce lee-side pressure falls over the Southern High 
Plains. Friday will be our warmest day of the week, as 
occasionally gusty south winds combine with strong low level warm 
advection in advance of our weekend arctic cold front. If not for 
increasing cloudiness in the afternoon hours with moisture 
streaming up from the Western Gulf of Mexico, where a few late 
day, isolated/elevated rumbles of thunder will be possible. 
Despite the increasing moisture and low convective chances east of
I-35, high temperatures should still warm to between 65 and 75 
degrees for our last warm day of the forecast. 

Pressure advection and isentropic ascent(upglide) aided by 30-40
knots southerly flow on the 290-300K surfaces develop over the
region in advance of a deep longwave trough moving east across 
the Central and Northern Plains Friday night. This period will be 
fairly wet and have continued with mainly likely wording for
showers or rain in the forecast east of U.S. 281. The strength of
the ascent and increasing instability will provide a quick round
of showers and storms ahead of an arctic surface cold front
advancing quickly southward through the Central and Southern High
Plains. At this time, instability looks too marginal for a severe
threat, but a few stronger tstorms are certainly possible,
especially across the southeast half of the CWA where better
850-700mb transport is expected. Hydrologically, we do not expect
any type of widespread or high-end flooding potential with the
progressive nature of both the arctic cold front or strong mid
level disturbance moving through the Plains. However, a wet Fall
and early Winter, along with dormant vegetation will provide quick
run-off with any embedded, heavier downpours and rainfall rates
Friday night into early Saturday morning across parts of Central
Texas. As such, there will be a threat for localized minor
flooding and possible minor rises in area mainstem river basins. 

Our long-anticipated arctic blast is still scheduled to arrive 
into our northwest counties before daybreak Saturday, supported by
the vigorous mid-level trough lift through the region and toward 
the Ozarks and Mississippi Valley. The arctic front will quickly 
surge through all the CWA by midday Saturday with blustery and 
much colder conditions arriving. It's likely most high 
temperatures Saturday occur in the morning, with falling 
temperatures through the day. Some wrap-around precipitation 
could persist closer to the immediate Red River Valley where a 
brief bout of flurries or very light snow could occur for an hour 
or two. However, the northerly track of the vigorous mid level 
trough should help draw in very dry arctic air, as well as 
increasingly rapid top-down drying from increasing downglide 
within the 925-700mb layer, so this is a very low confidence 
forecast and do not expect any impacts outside of the blustery 
and very cold conditions. 

Clearing skies and continued blustery and very cold conditions 
are expected Saturday night into Sunday with a very cold and dry 
arctic airmass settling in. A hard freeze with lows falling into 
the teens north of I-20 and the lower-mid 20s elsewhere. Combined 
with gusty north-northwest winds 20-30 mph, wind chills in the 
single digits north to the teens south will greet everyone Sunday
morning. After a very chilly start, I held highs in the 30s on 
Sunday with winds gradually slackening by afternoon. This still 
may be optimistic, but did go below blends on high temperatures 
considering the source region of this airmass. Another clear and 
frigid night is expected Sunday night with light winds and lows in
the 20s. A strong 1040mb high pressure ridge tracks east toward 
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday which will bring modest 
southeast winds back to our area. However, despite the sunny 
skies, I continued to forecast below guidance numbers for Monday's
high temperatures, as the arctic airmass will be slow to erode. 
For now, highs mostly in the 40s appears reasonable, but these 
values may need to also be lowered in future forecasts if this 
airmass is deeper and more dense than currently expected. 

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  43  65  50  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                52  43  65  51  69 /   0   5   0   0   0 
Paris               51  40  60  50  61 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              53  42  66  48  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            52  41  62  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              55  43  64  51  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             53  42  62  51  65 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Corsicana           53  43  60  52  66 /   0   5   0   5   5 
Temple              52  44  65  52  72 /   5   5   0   5   0 
Mineral Wells       56  41  67  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 11:03 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 11:04:10

927 
FXUS64 KFWD 151703
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1103 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.UPDATE...
GOES 16 imagery this morning continues to indicate extensive cloud
cover across the region, outside of a small area of clearing over
far east Texas. As a result, made some minor changes to this 
afternoon's sky cover forecast to keep cloudy conditions for most 
of the region. Also kept max temperatures pretty close to the 
previous forecast, with just a few degrees cooler across the 
northwestern zones with the forecast increase in cloud cover. No 
other changes to the forecast.

Elsenheimer

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 528 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/12Z TAFs/

Widespread stratus has overspread the region and will likely
remain in place most of today. Fortunately, conditions should 
remain VFR as cigs look to be in the FL030-050 range area-wide. A
brief period of scattered skies may occur overnight tonight before
MVFR cigs surge north through the area prior to daybreak
Wednesday. Some recent guidance suggests that a strengthening 
warm advection regime will generate a period of light drizzle or 
fog early Wednesday, but am hesitant to include it in the forecast
this early due to uncertainty. If future model data continues to 
trend towards better chances of BR/L, some minor visibility 
reductions may be needed for the early Wednesday period in later 
forecasts. Otherwise, southeast to south winds in the 5 to 10 KT
range can be expected through the end of the forecast period.

30

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 358 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

Weak ridging aloft will bring slightly warmer conditions and 
generally quiet weather to North and Central Texas for the next 24
hours. At the surface, light return flow has commenced as high 
pressure has shifted east into Louisiana. A stratus deck continues
to spread slowly northeast, and should cover most of the area by 
sunrise. That said, eastern and northeastern counties have 
remained clear through most of the night, allowing temperatures to
fall to or below freezing. Light freezing fog in these areas 
could produce a thin glaze on elevated surfaces such as 
windshields, but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

Despite the widespread low cloud cover, temperatures should still
be able to climb into the lower 50s this afternoon due to the 
presence of the weak ridge aloft and warm air advection near the 
surface. Southerly low level flow and subsequent warm/moist 
advection will increase tonight as the pressure gradient tightens,
leading to patchy fog and drizzle formation across the region. 
Fortunately, all locations will remain above freezing, with 
overnight low temperatures mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 358 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/
/Wednesday Through Monday/

A shortwave disturbance over the Four Corners is expected to
dampen the shortwave upper ridge over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday. This system will induce fairly strong low level warm 
advection just above the surface. In addition, westerly 925mb flow
20-30 knots within an increasingly moist layer just below a
frontal inversion is expected to assist in the formation of low
clouds and some patchy fog/drizzle, especially along and west of
Interstate 35/35E. Some isolated areas of thicker fog or heavier
drizzle could result in very localized visibility reductions for 
the Wednesday morning commute. Conditions should improve by 
Wednesday afternoon with warming at the surface, especially across
the western half of the CWA where low clouds should mix out 
readily with highs warming well into the 60s to near 70 degrees. I
did cool down highs more into the lower 60s further east where 
low clouds and weak low level isentropic ascent holds. Definitely 
a tricky high temperature forecast and it's quite possible these 
values may need to be lowered in future forecasts. 

Breezy southerly winds and a slow decrease of clouds from west to
east Wednesday night into Thursday morning will likely result in
more mild conditions than seen in recent days. A confluent and
fast mid-level flow regime is expected Thursday and Thursday
night. A more potent northern stream shortwave will track east 
across Kansas and Oklahoma and into the Ozarks during the day, 
which in turn will pull a weak cold front through the area. This 
front will likely not make it through Central Texas until late in 
the day, so a broad range of high temperatures are expected with 
highs around 60s across the immediate Red River Valley to the 
lower 70s south of the Highway 84 corridor in Central Texas. 
Richer moisture will remain across South-Central and Southeast 
Texas, thus we do not expect any rainfall with this system or 
cold front. West-northwest winds will quickly become light south- 
southeast Thursday night, as a weak surface high quickly transits 
east of the area and mid level height falls over the Southern 
Rockies induce lee-side pressure falls over the Southern High 
Plains. Friday will be our warmest day of the week, as 
occasionally gusty south winds combine with strong low level warm 
advection in advance of our weekend arctic cold front. If not for 
increasing cloudiness in the afternoon hours with moisture 
streaming up from the Western Gulf of Mexico, where a few late 
day, isolated/elevated rumbles of thunder will be possible. 
Despite the increasing moisture and low convective chances east of
I-35, high temperatures should still warm to between 65 and 75 
degrees for our last warm day of the forecast. 

Pressure advection and isentropic ascent(upglide) aided by 30-40
knots southerly flow on the 290-300K surfaces develop over the
region in advance of a deep longwave trough moving east across 
the Central and Northern Plains Friday night. This period will be 
fairly wet and have continued with mainly likely wording for
showers or rain in the forecast east of U.S. 281. The strength of
the ascent and increasing instability will provide a quick round
of showers and storms ahead of an arctic surface cold front
advancing quickly southward through the Central and Southern High
Plains. At this time, instability looks too marginal for a severe
threat, but a few stronger tstorms are certainly possible,
especially across the southeast half of the CWA where better
850-700mb transport is expected. Hydrologically, we do not expect
any type of widespread or high-end flooding potential with the
progressive nature of both the arctic cold front or strong mid
level disturbance moving through the Plains. However, a wet Fall
and early Winter, along with dormant vegetation will provide quick
run-off with any embedded, heavier downpours and rainfall rates
Friday night into early Saturday morning across parts of Central
Texas. As such, there will be a threat for localized minor
flooding and possible minor rises in area mainstem river basins. 

Our long-anticipated arctic blast is still scheduled to arrive 
into our northwest counties before daybreak Saturday, supported by
the vigorous mid-level trough lift through the region and toward 
the Ozarks and Mississippi Valley. The arctic front will quickly 
surge through all the CWA by midday Saturday with blustery and 
much colder conditions arriving. It's likely most high 
temperatures Saturday occur in the morning, with falling 
temperatures through the day. Some wrap-around precipitation 
could persist closer to the immediate Red River Valley where a 
brief bout of flurries or very light snow could occur for an hour 
or two. However, the northerly track of the vigorous mid level 
trough should help draw in very dry arctic air, as well as 
increasingly rapid top-down drying from increasing downglide 
within the 925-700mb layer, so this is a very low confidence 
forecast and do not expect any impacts outside of the blustery 
and very cold conditions. 

Clearing skies and continued blustery and very cold conditions 
are expected Saturday night into Sunday with a very cold and dry 
arctic airmass settling in. A hard freeze with lows falling into 
the teens north of I-20 and the lower-mid 20s elsewhere. Combined 
with gusty north-northwest winds 20-30 mph, wind chills in the 
single digits north to the teens south will greet everyone Sunday
morning. After a very chilly start, I held highs in the 30s on 
Sunday with winds gradually slackening by afternoon. This still 
may be optimistic, but did go below blends on high temperatures 
considering the source region of this airmass. Another clear and 
frigid night is expected Sunday night with light winds and lows in
the 20s. A strong 1040mb high pressure ridge tracks east toward 
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday which will bring modest 
southeast winds back to our area. However, despite the sunny 
skies, I continued to forecast below guidance numbers for Monday's
high temperatures, as the arctic airmass will be slow to erode. 
For now, highs mostly in the 40s appears reasonable, but these 
values may need to also be lowered in future forecasts if this 
airmass is deeper and more dense than currently expected. 

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  43  65  50  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                52  43  65  51  69 /   0   5   0   0   0 
Paris               51  40  60  50  61 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton              53  42  66  48  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            52  41  62  49  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              55  43  64  51  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             53  42  62  51  65 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Corsicana           53  43  60  52  66 /   0   5   0   5   5 
Temple              52  44  65  52  72 /   5   5   0   5   0 
Mineral Wells       56  41  67  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHV continues Flood Warning for Neches River near Diboll [TX] until further notice
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 10:26:14

351 
WGUS84 KSHV 151626
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0164.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181227T1331Z.190104T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 13.7 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0165.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ATOT2.2.ER.181227T1207Z.190106T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 17.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 17.2 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0139.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181208T0425Z.181209T0900Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.1 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

SHV continues Flood Warning for Neches River near Alto [TX] until further notice
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 10:26:14

351 
WGUS84 KSHV 151626
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0164.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181227T1331Z.190104T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 13.7 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0165.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ATOT2.2.ER.181227T1207Z.190106T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 17.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 17.2 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0139.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181208T0425Z.181209T0900Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.1 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

SHV continues Flood Warning for Neches River near Neches [TX] until further notice
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 10:26:14

351 
WGUS84 KSHV 151626
FLSSHV


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC001-073-225-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0164.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.181227T1331Z.190104T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 13.7 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

TXC001-073-225-455-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0165.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ATOT2.2.ER.181227T1207Z.190106T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 17.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 17.2 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

TXC005-225-373-455-457-161626-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0139.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.181208T0425Z.181209T0900Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll, Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:15 AM Tuesday The stage was 14.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.1 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$


GTXWXBot[OK]:

OKLAHOMA CITY Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 52 Low: 27 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Wednesday January 16, 2019, 00:42:24

599 
CDUS44 KOUN 160642
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1242 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019

................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         52    240 PM  77    1914  49      3       39       
  MINIMUM         27    355 AM  -2    1905  29     -2       15       
  AVERAGE         40                        39      1       27      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          1.24 2017   0.04  -0.04     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.81                      0.59   1.22     0.19    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.97                      2.47   3.50     0.87    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.81                      0.59   1.22     0.19    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           2.0  1917   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    4.5                       1.3    3.2      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      4.7                       3.4    1.3      0.1     
  SINCE JUL 1      5.5                       3.8    1.7      0.1     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       25                        26     -1       38       
  MONTH TO DATE  393                       390      3      481       
  SINCE DEC 1   1152                      1146      6     1254       
  SINCE JUL 1   1983                      1745    238     1804       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    26   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    32   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    10.7                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.7                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  FOG                                                                
  HAZE                                                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     63           100 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    82                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   50        76      1894                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   29         0      1930                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   542 PM CST   
JANUARY 17 2019.......SUNRISE   738 AM CST   SUNSET   543 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

WICHITA FALLS Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Wednesday January 16, 2019, 00:41:37

801 
CDUS44 KOUN 160641
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1241 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019

................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         54    348 PM  79    1928  54      0       50       
  MINIMUM         31    309 AM   7    1972  30      1       21       
  AVERAGE         43                        42      1       36      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          1.34 2017   0.03  -0.03     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.42                      0.52   0.90     0.01    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.37                      2.14   3.23     0.98    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.42                      0.52   0.90     0.01    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           3.0  1917   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.5                       0.7    1.8      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      3.7                       1.7    2.0       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      3.7                       2.0    1.7       T      
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       22                        23     -1       29       
  MONTH TO DATE  337                       353    -16      410       
  SINCE DEC 1    998                      1043    -45     1070       
  SINCE JUL 1   1621                      1550     71     1484       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         1     -1        1       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    15   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (200)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    18   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (180)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     7.9                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  FOG                                                                

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     66           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    83                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   54        79      1974                    
                                             1938                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   30         6      2018                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   549 PM CST   
JANUARY 17 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   550 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Convective Risk at Jan 16, 6:22z for portions of OUN
Posted on Wednesday January 16, 2019, 00:23:05

089 
WUUS03 KWNS 160623
PTSDY3

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019

VALID TIME 181200Z - 191200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... ANY SEVERE ...

0.05   33729473 32739434 30559560 29819689 29589806 29999956
       30749956 32589852 33519793 34139737 34339639 34359560
       33729473
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3

... CATEGORICAL ...

MRGL   32739438 30589563 29789700 29549805 29969948 30679963
       33549801 34169741 34369643 34319552 33729481 32739438
TSTM   28299588 28029841 28610011 29380131 30820217 32790163
       36060114 37239893 38109392 37799123 36899012 34988830
       34368825 33648879 33358957 32799074 31859239 30329382
       29289452 28729506 28299588 99999999 32741090 33881158
       35421129 36450747 35950576 34580471 33150501 32500634
       32240809 32240978 32741090

&&
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
GGG 15 SW UTS 55 SE AUS 10 S BAZ 40 SSE JCT 15 NE JCT 40 SE SPS 25
WSW ADM 30 N DUA 40 SSE MLC 35 SW DEQ 30 NE GGG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PSX 30 NW ALI
55 WNW COT 25 W DRT 45 E FST 40 N BGS 30 NNE BGD 20 WSW P28 45 SSW
SZL 35 SE VIH 20 ENE POF 40 WNW MSL 30 ENE TUP 20 W CBM 30 ESE GWO
50 SSE GLH 30 N ESF 30 NNE BPT 15 ESE GLS 35 SE LBX 40 SE PSX
...CONT... 45 N TUS 40 NE PHX 30 NE FLG 40 NW 4SL 30 NE SAF 65 ENE
4CR 30 WSW ROW 30 SSW ALM 20 W DMN 45 SSW SAD 45 N TUS.

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 10:52 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 22:52:58

650 
FXUS64 KOUN 160452 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.AVIATION...
Though the current layer of stratus across central Oklahoma is
slowly retreating, fog and stratus are expected to redevelop
overnight across western Oklahoma expanding into parts of central
Oklahoma and north Texas. IFR conditions will be possible. Low
confidence in when the low ceilings will clear out. For now, given
the time of year, opted for a pessimistic forecast keeping MVFR to
IFR ceilings through the TAF period for northern and central
Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ 

AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Areas of lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions persist across
central Oklahoma and stretches southwest into western north Texas.
Elsewhere, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions persist. There is
some uncertainty at the end of the TAF period for the presence of
fog and low clouds. In areas where the low ceilings are
persistent, there is a question on whether overnight cooling will
be enough to produce IFR levels of fog and low ceilings. For now,
the possibility can't be ruled out, and IFR conditions have been 
included in the TAFs.

Zwink 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Low clouds have held tough today across southern into central 
Oklahoma keeping temperatures cooler in these areas. These low 
clouds will likely persist tonight into tomorrow with continued 
southerly flow and mid-level moisture advection. Weak upper wave 
will move across the area tomorrow afternoon but will not generate 
much precipitation outside of a slight chance for some light showers 
or drizzle across northern Oklahoma. Behind this system, Thursday
should be dry with light northerly winds underneath weak 
shortwave ridging. 

Pattern begins to change by Friday as a trough digs over the 
Rockies. Ahead of the trough a surface low will develop over 
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico, acting to increase 
southerly flow over our area. This will bring moisture northward 
from Texas, and may allow for enough instability for a few 
thunderstorms across mainly southeastern parts of the area. 

By Friday evening the surface low moves across southern or 
central Oklahoma dragging a strong cold front behind it. Arctic 
airmass behind the front will likely by the coldest of the season 
with temperatures quickly dropping into the 20s by Saturday 
afternoon. Winds of 25-35 mph will make it feel even colder, with 
wind chill values in the single digits to near zero by Saturday 
evening. 

Also watching for the possibility of snow on the backside of the 
system Saturday. Models trended a bit deeper with the trough but 
overall the progressive nature should limit snowfall potential. 
Expect rain to change to snow Friday night into Saturday morning, 
with some light accumulations possible, especially across northern
and northeastern portions of the area. The system quickly exits 
the area Saturday night with continued cold temperatures. Lows 
Saturday night in the teens to near 10 degrees, and high generally
in the 20s on Sunday. Bottom line...main story this weekend still
looks to be very cold temperatures. 

By Monday temperatures looks to moderate closer to average ahead of 
our next system for the middle of next week. Significant differences 
in the models exist by this time regarding timing and strength of
the system, so went with a blended approach for now. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  55  41  52 /   0  10  10   0 
Hobart OK         38  58  38  55 /   0   0  10   0 
Wichita Falls TX  40  62  44  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           32  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     37  50  37  50 /   0  10  10   0 
Durant OK         39  60  50  59 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/14/14

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 5:50 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 17:50:34

939 
FXUS64 KOUN 152350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Areas of lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions persist across
central Oklahoma and stretches southwest into western north Texas.
Elsewhere, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions persist. There is
some uncertainty at the end of the TAF period for the presence of
fog and low clouds. In areas where the low ceilings are
persistent, there is a question on whether overnight cooling will
be enough to produce IFR levels of fog and low ceilings. For now,
the possibility can't be ruled out, and IFR conditions have been 
included in the TAFs.

Zwink 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Low clouds have held tough today across southern into central 
Oklahoma keeping temperatures cooler in these areas. These low 
clouds will likely persist tonight into tomorrow with continued 
southerly flow and mid-level moisture advection. Weak upper wave 
will move across the area tomorrow afternoon but will not generate 
much precipitation outside of a slight chance for some light showers 
or drizzle across northern Oklahoma. Behind this system, Thursday
should be dry with light northerly winds underneath weak 
shortwave ridging. 

Pattern begins to change by Friday as a trough digs over the 
Rockies. Ahead of the trough a surface low will develop over 
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico, acting to increase 
southerly flow over our area. This will bring moisture northward 
from Texas, and may allow for enough instability for a few 
thunderstorms across mainly southeastern parts of the area. 

By Friday evening the surface low moves across southern or 
central Oklahoma dragging a strong cold front behind it. Arctic 
airmass behind the front will likely by the coldest of the season 
with temperatures quickly dropping into the 20s by Saturday 
afternoon. Winds of 25-35 mph will make it feel even colder, with 
wind chill values in the single digits to near zero by Saturday 
evening. 

Also watching for the possibility of snow on the backside of the 
system Saturday. Models trended a bit deeper with the trough but 
overall the progressive nature should limit snowfall potential. 
Expect rain to change to snow Friday night into Saturday morning, 
with some light accumulations possible, especially across northern
and northeastern portions of the area. The system quickly exits 
the area Saturday night with continued cold temperatures. Lows 
Saturday night in the teens to near 10 degrees, and high generally
in the 20s on Sunday. Bottom line...main story this weekend still
looks to be very cold temperatures. 

By Monday temperatures looks to moderate closer to average ahead of 
our next system for the middle of next week. Significant differences 
in the models exist by this time regarding timing and strength of
the system, so went with a blended approach for now. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  40  55  41 /   0   0  10  10 
Hobart OK         55  38  58  38 /   0   0   0  10 
Wichita Falls TX  56  40  62  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  32  54  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  37  50  37 /   0   0  10  10 
Durant OK         52  39  60  50 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/14/50

WICHITA FALLS Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 17:22:04

490 
CDUS44 KOUN 152321 RRA
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
521 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2019


................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         54    348 PM  79    1928  54      0       50       
  MINIMUM         31    309 AM   7    1972  30      1       21       
  AVERAGE         43                        42      1       36      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          1.34 2017   0.03  -0.03     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.42                      0.52   0.90     0.01    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.37                      2.14   3.23     0.98    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.42                      0.52   0.90     0.01    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           3.0  1917   0.0    0.0      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.5                       0.7    1.8      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      3.7                       1.7    2.0       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      3.7                       2.0    1.7       T      
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           22                        23     -1       29       
  MONTH TO DATE  337                       353    -16      410       
  SINCE DEC 1    998                      1043    -45     1070       
  SINCE JUL 1   1621                      1550     71     1484       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         1     -1        1       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    15   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (200)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    18   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (180)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     7.6                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                            
  FOG                                                                

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     66           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    83                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   54        79      1974                    
                                             1938                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   30         6      2018                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   548 PM CST   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   549 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Jan 15 Climate Report: High: 52 Low: 27 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 17:21:51

860 
CDUS44 KOUN 152321
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
521 PM CST TUE JAN 15 2019


................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 15 2019...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         52    240 PM  77    1914  49      3       39       
  MINIMUM         27    355 AM  -2    1905  29     -2       15       
  AVERAGE         40                        39      1       27      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          1.24 2017   0.04  -0.04     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.81                      0.59   1.22     0.19    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.97                      2.47   3.50     0.87    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.81                      0.59   1.22     0.19    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           2.0  1917   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    4.5                       1.3    3.2      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      4.7                       3.4    1.3      0.1     
  SINCE JUL 1      5.5                       3.8    1.7      0.1     
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           25                        26     -1       38       
  MONTH TO DATE  393                       390      3      481       
  SINCE DEC 1   1152                      1146      6     1254       
  SINCE JUL 1   1983                      1745    238     1804       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    26   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    32   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    10.8                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                            
  FOG                                                                
  HAZE                                                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST   100           200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     63           100 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    82                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   50        76      1894                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   29         0      1930                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   541 PM CST   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   542 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 3:13 PM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 15:13:49

014 
FXUS64 KOUN 152113
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
313 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Low clouds have held tough today across southern into central 
Oklahoma keeping temperatures cooler in these areas. These low 
clouds will likely persist tonight into tomorrow with continued 
southerly flow and mid-level moisture advection. Weak upper wave 
will move across the area tomorrow afternoon but will not generate 
much precipitation outside of a slight chance for some light showers 
or drizzle across northern Oklahoma. Behind this system, Thursday
should be dry with light northerly winds underneath weak 
shortwave ridging. 

Pattern begins to change by Friday as a trough digs over the 
Rockies. Ahead of the trough a surface low will develop over 
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico, acting to increase 
southerly flow over our area. This will bring moisture northward 
from Texas, and may allow for enough instability for a few 
thunderstorms across mainly southeastern parts of the area. 

By Friday evening the surface low moves across southern or 
central Oklahoma dragging a strong cold front behind it. Arctic 
airmass behind the front will likely by the coldest of the season 
with temperatures quickly dropping into the 20s by Saturday 
afternoon. Winds of 25-35 mph will make it feel even colder, with 
wind chill values in the single digits to near zero by Saturday 
evening. 

Also watching for the possibility of snow on the backside of the 
system Saturday. Models trended a bit deeper with the trough but 
overall the progressive nature should limit snowfall potential. 
Expect rain to change to snow Friday night into Saturday morning, 
with some light accumulations possible, especially across northern
and northeastern portions of the area. The system quickly exits 
the area Saturday night with continued cold temperatures. Lows 
Saturday night in the teens to near 10 degrees, and high generally
in the 20s on Sunday. Bottom line...main story this weekend still
looks to be very cold temperatures. 

By Monday temperatures looks to moderate closer to average ahead of 
our next system for the middle of next week. Significant differences 
in the models exist by this time regarding timing and strength of
the system, so went with a blended approach for now. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  55  41  52 /   0  10  10   0 
Hobart OK         38  58  38  55 /   0   0  10   0 
Wichita Falls TX  40  62  44  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           32  54  33  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     37  50  37  50 /   0  10  10   0 
Durant OK         39  60  50  59 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/08

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jan 15, 11:22 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 11:22:49

164 
FLUS44 KOUN 151722 AAA
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1122 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1122 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Winter Weather...
Rain will change to snow across northern, central and western 
Oklahoma and possibly western north Texas on Friday night, and 
across south central and southeast Oklahoma on Saturday. Light 
accumulations are possible. 

.Cold...
It will turn much colder Saturday. Wind chill values will be in
the single digit and teens as early as Saturday morning with low
values persisting through the day. Wind chill values Sunday
morning will be between 10 above and 10 below zero with
temperatures in the single digits and teens.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across south central and
southeast Oklahoma on Friday afternoon and evening. Severe storms
are unlikely.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jan 15, 7:32 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 07:32:31

669 
FLUS44 KOUN 151332 AAA
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
732 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161345-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
732 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Freezing Fog...
Patchy freezing fog across southeast Oklahoma this morning could
result in some slick spots on elevated surfaces such as bridges
and overpasses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Winter Weather...
Rain will change to snow from across northern, central and western
Oklahoma and possibly western north Texas on Friday night, and
across south central and southeast Oklahoma on Saturday.

.Cold...
It will turn much colder Saturday. Wind chill values will be in
the single digit and teens as early as Saturday morning with low
values persisting through the day. Wind chill values Sunday
morning will be between 10 above and 10 below zero with
temperatures in the single digits and teens.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across south central and
southeast Oklahoma on Friday afternoon and evening. Severe storms
are unlikely.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jan 15, 7:15 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 07:15:58

194 
FLUS44 KOUN 151315
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
715 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161315-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
715 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Winter Weather...
Rain will change to snow from across northern, central and western
Oklahoma and possibly western north Texas on Friday night, and
across south central and southeast Oklahoma on Saturday.

.Cold...
It will turn much colder Saturday. Wind chill values will be in
the single digit and teens as early as Saturday morning with low
values persisting through the day. Wind chill values Sunday
morning will be between 10 above and 10 below zero with
temperatures in the single digits and teens.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across south central and
southeast Oklahoma on Friday afternoon and evening. Severe storms
are unlikely.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

OUN issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jan 15, 6:02 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 06:02:21

758 
FLUS44 KOUN 151202
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
602 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161215-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
602 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Winter Weather...
Rain will change to snow from across northern, central and western
Oklahoma and possibly western north Texas on Friday night, and
across south central and southeast Oklahoma on Saturday.

.Cold...
It will turn much colder Saturday. Wind chill values will be in
the single digit and teens as early as Saturday morning with low
values persisting through the day. Wind chill values Sunday
morning will be between 10 above and 10 below zero with
temperatures in the single digits and teens.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across south central and
southeast Oklahoma on Friday afternoon and evening. Severe storms
are unlikely.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 5:42 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 05:42:55

005 
FXUS64 KOUN 151142
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
542 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Patches of fog/freezing fog will continue this morning, and a few
locations will have visibilities below 1/2 sm. The fog should
diminish within a few hours after sunrise. A layer of clouds with
bases around 3,500 ft across north Texas and southern Oklahoma
will shift east-northeast through the day, and should be out of
this area by around 1800Z. Models, along with forecast conditions,
suggest fog, drizzle and low clouds will be a possibility again 
late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but details are difficult 
to discern at this time.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Patches of fog will be possible this morning, and with
temperatures around freezing, some freezing fog will likewise be a
possibility. Any fog that does form should dissipate around mid-
morning. A continuing moist flow will bring another chance for 
fog or drizzle tonight.

A weak front will meander across northern Oklahoma through early
Friday, then lift quickly north as a strong storm system arrives
in the southern Plains. This system will bring a strong cold 
front across Oklahoma and north Texas Friday night into Saturday.
Ahead of the front, instability may be sufficient to support a 
few thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma. Behind the front, 
sharply colder air will arrive with strong northerly winds. This 
will send wind chill temperatures plummeting into the single 
digits across most of the region by early Saturday. Snow will also
be possible behind this frontal system, and some accumulation 
will be possible, especially across northern Oklahoma.

Cold weather will continue Sunday, and wind chill values may
warrant an advisory in north-central Oklahoma.

Another storm system will arrive around Tuesday of next week,
bringing another chance for snow, rain, or some combination of the
two.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  39  59  38 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobart OK         56  37  64  37 /   0   0   0  10 
Wichita Falls TX  57  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  31  58  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  35  51  34 /   0   0  10  20 
Durant OK         54  39  62  46 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/23/23

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 3:32 AM CST
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 03:32:30

899 
FXUS64 KOUN 150932
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
332 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Patches of fog will be possible this morning, and with
temperatures around freezing, some freezing fog will likewise be a
possibility. Any fog that does form should dissipate around mid-
morning. A continuing moist flow will bring another chance for 
fog or drizzle tonight.

A weak front will meander across northern Oklahoma through early
Friday, then lift quickly north as a strong storm system arrives
in the southern Plains. This system will bring a strong cold 
front across Oklahoma and north Texas Friday night into Saturday.
Ahead of the front, instability may be sufficient to support a 
few thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma. Behind the front, 
sharply colder air will arrive with strong northerly winds. This 
will send wind chill temperatures plummeting into the single 
digits across most of the region by early Saturday. Snow will also
be possible behind this frontal system, and some accumulation 
will be possible, especially across northern Oklahoma.

Cold weather will continue Sunday, and wind chill values may
warrant an advisory in north-central Oklahoma.

Another storm system will arrive around Tuesday of next week,
bringing another chance for snow, rain, or some combination of the
two.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  39  59  38 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobart OK         56  37  64  37 /   0   0   0  10 
Wichita Falls TX  57  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           57  31  58  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     52  35  51  34 /   0   0  10  20 
Durant OK         54  39  62  46 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/23

WICHITA FALLS Jan 14 Climate Report: High: 43 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 00:43:02

643 
CDUS44 KOUN 150642 RRA
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1242 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2019

................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 14 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         43    455 PM  82    1928  54    -11       55       
  MINIMUM         31   1110 PM  10    1979  30      1       20       
  AVERAGE         37                        42     -5       38      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          0.88 1946   0.04  -0.04     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.42                      0.49   0.93     0.01    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.37                      2.11   3.26     0.98    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.42                      0.49   0.93     0.01    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.3  1989   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.5                       0.7    1.8      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      3.7                       1.7    2.0       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      3.7                       2.0    1.7       T      
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       28                        23      5       27       
  MONTH TO DATE  315                       330    -15      381       
  SINCE DEC 1    976                      1020    -44     1041       
  SINCE JUL 1   1599                      1527     72     1455       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         1     -1        1       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED     9   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SE (140)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    18   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     W (270)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.7                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    96           900 PM                                     
 LOWEST     62           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    79                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   54        79      1928                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   30         7      1972                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   548 PM CST   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   549 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Jan 14 Climate Report: High: 46 Low: 29 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Tuesday January 15, 2019, 00:42:38

817 
CDUS44 KOUN 150642
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
1242 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2019

................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 14 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         46    422 PM  75    1928  49     -3       50       
  MINIMUM         29   1151 PM  -1    1905  29      0       23       
  AVERAGE         38                        39     -1       37      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00          0.76 2007   0.04  -0.04     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.81                      0.55   1.26     0.19    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.97                      2.43   3.54     0.87    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.81                      0.55   1.26     0.19    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  YESTERDAY        0.0           1.3  2007   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    4.5                       1.2    3.3      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      4.7                       3.3    1.4      0.1     
  SINCE JUL 1      5.5                       3.7    1.8      0.1     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       27                        26      1       28       
  MONTH TO DATE  368                       364      4      443       
  SINCE DEC 1   1127                      1120      7     1216       
  SINCE JUL 1   1958                      1719    239     1766       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (190)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    14   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (220)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.3                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.7                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                        
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    92           900 PM                                     
 LOWEST     62           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    77                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   49        77      1914                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   29        -2      1905                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   541 PM CST   
JANUARY 16 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   542 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          




$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 10:54 PM CST
Posted on Monday January 14, 2019, 22:54:19

315 
FXUS64 KOUN 150454 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CST Mon Jan 14 2019

.AVIATION...
Some patchy fog may develop across parts of northern and western
Oklahoma, though confidence is too low to mention in TAFs.
Otherwise, light south winds will prevail through the TAF period.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM CST Mon Jan 14 2019/ 

AVIATION...
Light south winds will continue through the TAF period. Some
patchy fog may be possible early Tuesday, mainly across western
and northern parts of Oklahoma, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant mention in TAFs.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST Mon Jan 14 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have cleared most of the area this afternoon, allowing 
temperatures to warm into the 40s, about 10-15 degrees warmer than 
they were this time yesterday. Expect this warming trend to continue 
through most of the week with highs in the 50s and 60s areawide as 
low amplitude ridging over Texas dominates. A weak wave crosses the 
region on Wednesday, with little effect other than some increased
cloudiness. 

An abrupt end to the mild pattern is expected by Friday night as a 
stronger system digs along the front range of the Rockies. Attendant 
strong cold front will usher in an arctic airmass, likely resulting 
in the coldest temperatures of the season by Saturday into Saturday 
night. Before this occurs, may see enough instability for a few 
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Friday afternoon and evening, 
mostly confined to southeast portions of the area.

Bigger question is how much precipitation will be occur behind the 
cold front on Saturday. Overall model trends have been slightly 
deeper and further south with the parent trough, with a slightly 
stronger precipitation signal. Expecting snow as the dominant 
precipitation type by Saturday morning as the atmosphere quickly 
cools on the backside of the system. Both the 12z GFS/ECMWF are now 
in general agreement regarding a band of snowfall focused across 
northern, possibly extending into central, Oklahoma during the 
day Saturday. Still 5 days out and expect continued shifting in 
the models, so kept PoPs in the chance category for now. 

System quickly clears the area by Saturday evening leaving behind 
dry but frigid conditions. Widespread lows in the teens expected 
Saturday night, and would not be surprised if a few locations in
northern Oklahoma see lows in the single digits, especially if
there is any snow cover. Sunday should see plenty of sunshine but
temperatures will struggle to warm much, with highs only in the
20s and 30s. More warming is expected on Monday ahead of our next
potential system that looks to approach just after the end of this
forecast. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  32  54  38  58 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobart OK         32  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  35  58  43  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           28  56  31  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     29  53  34  50 /   0   0   0  10 
Durant OK         31  54  39  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/14/14

WICHITA FALLS Jan 14 Climate Report: High: 43 Low: 33 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Monday January 14, 2019, 17:29:51

125 
CDUS44 KOUN 142329 RRA
CLISPS

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
529 PM CST MON JAN 14 2019


................................... 

...THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 14 2019...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         43    455 PM  82    1928  54    -11       55       
  MINIMUM         33    952 AM  10    1979  30      3       20       
  AVERAGE         38                        42     -4       38      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          0.88 1946   0.04  -0.04     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.42                      0.49   0.93     0.01    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.37                      2.11   3.26     0.98    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.42                      0.49   0.93     0.01    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           0.3  1989   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.5                       0.7    1.8      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      3.7                       1.7    2.0       T      
  SINCE JUL 1      3.7                       2.0    1.7       T      
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           27                        23      4       27       
  MONTH TO DATE  314                       330    -16      381       
  SINCE DEC 1    975                      1020    -45     1041       
  SINCE JUL 1   1598                      1527     71     1455       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         1     -1        1       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED     9   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    18   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     W (270)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.2                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                            
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    82          1200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     62           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    72                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE WICHITA FALLS CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   54        79      1928                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   30         7      1972                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 14 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   547 PM CST   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   548 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OKLAHOMA CITY Jan 14 Climate Report: High: 46 Low: 32 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0
Posted on Monday January 14, 2019, 17:29:44

660 
CDUS44 KOUN 142329
CLIOKC

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                   
529 PM CST MON JAN 14 2019


................................... 

...THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 14 2019...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2019


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL             
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         46    422 PM  75    1928  49     -3       50       
  MINIMUM         32    910 AM  -1    1905  29      3       23       
  AVERAGE         39                        39      0       37      
                                                                     
PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          0.76 2007   0.04  -0.04     0.00    
  MONTH TO DATE    1.81                      0.55   1.26     0.19    
  SINCE DEC 1      5.97                      2.43   3.54     0.87    
  SINCE JAN 1      1.81                      0.55   1.26     0.19    
                                                                     
SNOWFALL (IN)                                                        
  TODAY            0.0           1.3  2007   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    4.5                       1.2    3.3      0.0     
  SINCE DEC 1      4.7                       3.3    1.4      0.1     
  SINCE JUL 1      5.5                       3.7    1.8      0.1     
                                                                     
DEGREE DAYS                                                          
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           26                        26      0       28       
  MONTH TO DATE  367                       364      3      443       
  SINCE DEC 1   1126                      1120      6     1216       
  SINCE JUL 1   1957                      1719    238     1766       
                                                                     
 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE DEC 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (190)      
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    14   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (220)      
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     3.5                                         

                                                                     
SKY COVER                                                            
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                              

                                                                     
WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                  
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                            
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                               

                                                                     
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)                                          
 HIGHEST    85          1200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     62           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    74                                                       

..........................................................

                                                                     
THE OKLAHOMA CITY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                    
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   49        77      1914                    
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   29        -2      1905                    

                                                                     
SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JANUARY 14 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   540 PM CST   
JANUARY 15 2019.......SUNRISE   739 AM CST   SUNSET   541 PM CST   

                                                                    
-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.                                      
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.                                
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.                                       
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.                                          

$$

OUN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 5:04 PM CST
Posted on Monday January 14, 2019, 17:05:12

478 
FXUS64 KOUN 142304 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
504 PM CST Mon Jan 14 2019

.AVIATION...
Light south winds will continue through the TAF period. Some
patchy fog may be possible early Tuesday, mainly across western
and northern parts of Oklahoma, however confidence is not high
enough to warrant mention in TAFs.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST Mon Jan 14 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have cleared most of the area this afternoon, allowing 
temperatures to warm into the 40s, about 10-15 degrees warmer than 
they were this time yesterday. Expect this warming trend to continue 
through most of the week with highs in the 50s and 60s areawide as 
low amplitude ridging over Texas dominates. A weak wave crosses the 
region on Wednesday, with little effect other than some increased
cloudiness. 

An abrupt end to the mild pattern is expected by Friday night as a 
stronger system digs along the front range of the Rockies. Attendant 
strong cold front will usher in an arctic airmass, likely resulting 
in the coldest temperatures of the season by Saturday into Saturday 
night. Before this occurs, may see enough instability for a few 
thunderstorms ahead of the front on Friday afternoon and evening, 
mostly confined to southeast portions of the area.

Bigger question is how much precipitation will be occur behind the 
cold front on Saturday. Overall model trends have been slightly 
deeper and further south with the parent trough, with a slightly 
stronger precipitation signal. Expecting snow as the dominant 
precipitation type by Saturday morning as the atmosphere quickly 
cools on the backside of the system. Both the 12z GFS/ECMWF are now 
in general agreement regarding a band of snowfall focused across 
northern, possibly extending into central, Oklahoma during the 
day Saturday. Still 5 days out and expect continued shifting in 
the models, so kept PoPs in the chance category for now. 

System quickly clears the area by Saturday evening leaving behind 
dry but frigid conditions. Widespread lows in the teens expected 
Saturday night, and would not be surprised if a few locations in
northern Oklahoma see lows in the single digits, especially if
there is any snow cover. Sunday should see plenty of sunshine but
temperatures will struggle to warm much, with highs only in the
20s and 30s. More warming is expected on Monday ahead of our next
potential system that looks to approach just after the end of this
forecast. 

PJW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  32  54  38  58 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobart OK         32  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  35  58  43  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           28  56  31  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     29  53  34  50 /   0   0   0  10 
Durant OK         31  54  39  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/14/14